Keel's MLB 2016

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  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363
    #141
    2 errors lead to 2 runs for the Padres. That sucks...
      Comment
      • keel44
        SBR MVP
        • 08-01-09
        • 3363
        #142
        August 10

        Pirates -1.5 (+130) vs Padres ($66.02 to win $85.83) LOSS

        Starting Bank: $842.23
        Current Bank: $1254.49
        YTD: 28-20-1 +$412.26
          Comment
          • keel44
            SBR MVP
            • 08-01-09
            • 3363
            #143
            August 11

            Braves UNDER 9.5 (-105) @ Brewers ($62.72 to win $59.73)
              Comment
              • keel44
                SBR MVP
                • 08-01-09
                • 3363
                #144
                August 11

                Braves UNDER 9.5 (-105) @ Brewers ($62.72 to win $59.73) LOSS

                Starting Bank: $842.23
                Current Bank: $1191.77
                YTD: 28-21-1 +$349.54
                  Comment
                  • keel44
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-01-09
                    • 3363
                    #145
                    August 12

                    White Sox FF (+120) @ Marlins ($59.59 to win $71.51)
                    Astros FF (+115) @ Blue Jays ($59.59 to win $68.53)
                      Comment
                      • keel44
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-01-09
                        • 3363
                        #146
                        August 12

                        White Sox FF (+120) @ Marlins ($59.59 to win $71.51) WIN
                        Astros FF (+115) @ Blue Jays ($59.59 to win $68.53) WIN

                        Starting Bank: $842.23
                        Current Bank: $1331.81
                        YTD: 30-21-1 +$489.58
                          Comment
                          • keel44
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-01-09
                            • 3363
                            #147
                            August 13

                            Braves FF (+160) @ Nationals ($66.59 to win $106.54)
                            Diamondbacks (+180) @ Red Sox ($66.59 to win $119.86)
                              Comment
                              • keel44
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-01-09
                                • 3363
                                #148
                                August 13

                                Braves FF (+160) @ Nationals ($66.59 to win $106.54) LOSS
                                Diamondbacks (+180) @ Red Sox ($66.59 to win $119.86) LOSS

                                Starting Bank: $842.23
                                Current Bank: $1198.63
                                YTD: 30-23-1 +$356.40
                                  Comment
                                  • keel44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-01-09
                                    • 3363
                                    #149
                                    August 14

                                    Diamondbacks (+160) @ Red Sox ($59.93 to win $95.89)
                                    Rockies (-103) @ Phillies ($59.93 to win $58.18)
                                      Comment
                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-15-14
                                        • 3449
                                        #150
                                        Snakes are 8-0 when Greinke starts on the road. Hope that trend continues for you today!
                                          Comment
                                          • keel44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-09
                                            • 3363
                                            #151
                                            August 14

                                            Diamondbacks (+160) @ Red Sox ($59.93 to win $95.89) LOSS
                                            Rockies (-103) @ Phillies ($59.93 to win $58.18) LOSS

                                            Starting Bank: $842.23
                                            Current Bank: $1078.77
                                            YTD: 30-25-1 +$236.54
                                              Comment
                                              • keel44
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-01-09
                                                • 3363
                                                #152
                                                August 15

                                                Marlins OVER 8.5 (-120) @ Reds ($53.94 to win $44.95)
                                                Mariners (-128) @ Angels ($53.94 to win $42.14)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • keel44
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                    • 3363
                                                    #153
                                                    August 15

                                                    Marlins OVER 8.5 (-120) @ Reds ($53.94 to win $44.95) WIN
                                                    Mariners (-128) @ Angels ($53.94 to win $42.14) WIN

                                                    Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                    Current Bank: $1165.86
                                                    YTD: 32-25-1 +$323.63
                                                      Comment
                                                      • keel44
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                        • 3363
                                                        #154
                                                        August 16

                                                        Dodgers OVER 8.5 (+100) @ Phillies ($58.29 to win $58.29)
                                                        Astros TT OVER 4 (-105) vs Cardinals ($58.29 to win $55.51)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • keel44
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                            • 3363
                                                            #155
                                                            August 16

                                                            Dodgers OVER 8.5 (+100) @ Phillies ($58.29 to win $58.29) WIN
                                                            Astros TT OVER 4 (-105) vs Cardinals ($58.29 to win $55.51) WIN

                                                            Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                            Current Bank: $1279.66
                                                            YTD: 34-25-1 +$437.43
                                                              Comment
                                                              • keel44
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                • 3363
                                                                #156
                                                                August 17

                                                                Reds -0.5 FF (+115) vs Marlins ($63.98 to win $73.58)
                                                                Nationals FF UNDER 6 (-125) @ Rockies ($63.98 to win $51.18)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • keel44
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                    • 3363
                                                                    #157
                                                                    August 17

                                                                    Reds -0.5 FF (+115) vs Marlins ($63.98 to win $73.58) LOSS
                                                                    Nationals FF UNDER 6 (-125) @ Rockies ($63.98 to win $51.18) LOSS

                                                                    Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                                    Current Bank: $1151.70
                                                                    YTD: 34-27-1 +$309.47
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • keel44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                        • 3363
                                                                        #158
                                                                        August 18

                                                                        Diamondbacks (-108) @ Padres ($57.58 to win $53.31)
                                                                        Phillies (+142) vs Dodgers ($57.58 to win $81.76)
                                                                        White Sox (+183) @ Indians ($57.58 to win $105.37)
                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • BaseballChaser
                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                            • 06-29-16
                                                                            • 388
                                                                            #159
                                                                            5% of BR each play is pretty risky even if you do reset the 5% each day. On big dogs I definitely wouldn't do 5%. Maybe 5% on favorites and on underdogs play to win 5% or risk like 3.5%

                                                                            GL today
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                #160
                                                                                August 18

                                                                                Diamondbacks (-108) @ Padres ($57.58 to win $53.31) LOSS
                                                                                Phillies (+142) vs Dodgers ($57.58 to win $81.76) WIN
                                                                                White Sox (+183) @ Indians ($57.58 to win $105.37) LOSS

                                                                                Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                                                Current Bank: $1118.30
                                                                                YTD: 35-29-1 +$276.07
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                    #161
                                                                                    Originally posted by BaseballChaser
                                                                                    5% of BR each play is pretty risky even if you do reset the 5% each day. On big dogs I definitely wouldn't do 5%. Maybe 5% on favorites and on underdogs play to win 5% or risk like 3.5%

                                                                                    GL today

                                                                                    I see things differently. I am doing a long term bankroll growth. It is aggressive, there is no doubt, but I think it is doable. I will not risk anymore than 15% of my bankroll at once. If I want more than 3 plays in a day I will lower the percent risked of each bet.

                                                                                    To me a play worth betting on should be risked equally with big favorites or big dogs. I don't believe just because a favorite is more likely to win, it should be risked more. Long term value will show itself. I readjust my 5% every day because I want to fully take advantage of compounding my bankroll.

                                                                                    I am convinced now that I have what it takes for long term success. Right now, I want to grow that bankroll.
                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                        #162
                                                                                        August 19

                                                                                        Tigers (-108) vs Red Sox ($55.91 to win $51.77)
                                                                                        Royals (-125) vs Twins ($55.91 to win $44.73)
                                                                                        Reds TT OVER 3.5 (-125) vs Dodgers ($55.91 to win $44.73)
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                            #163
                                                                                            I can never anticipate line moves perfectly. Tigers a dog now?
                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • Joe'Dad
                                                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                                                • 08-11-16
                                                                                                • 183
                                                                                                #164
                                                                                                I like your picks
                                                                                                However, I believe it is Porcello
                                                                                                first game back in Detroit. His team might hit for him. But they must be tired with the scheduling.
                                                                                                Wanted to add my pick of the day:
                                                                                                Cards/Phil over 9
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                    #165
                                                                                                    I think Porcello going back is gonna be a negative for him. I thought the public will be all over Fulmer at home.

                                                                                                    KC -140 now got that one right !
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • Joe'Dad
                                                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                                                        • 08-11-16
                                                                                                        • 183
                                                                                                        #166
                                                                                                        KC seems like a no brainer, and I agree with Detroit because Porcello is automatic at home, but on road he is better then average, and fuller is pitching very amazing.
                                                                                                        But I will lay off that game, because im not sold Detroit will win.
                                                                                                        BOL Sir
                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • Joe'Dad
                                                                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                                                                            • 08-11-16
                                                                                                            • 183
                                                                                                            #167
                                                                                                            Food for thought.
                                                                                                            I have no system like others.
                                                                                                            However if I feel I got 80%
                                                                                                            Or better shot of winning the bet, I dont care with the line is.
                                                                                                            Like yesterday, only played Cubbies
                                                                                                            On the ml because it seemed to me it was the closest to a win.
                                                                                                            A Win is a win. Which is money in my account
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                                #168
                                                                                                                If you can anticipate a line move of any significance, you get added value to a play you like. You could wait on a line or take it early. The idea is to get the best line for your play. I should have waited on the Tigers.
                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                                    #169
                                                                                                                    I think the Reds hit Bud Norris a little bit. I added a play.
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                        #170
                                                                                                                        August 19

                                                                                                                        Tigers (-108) vs Red Sox ($55.91 to win $51.77) LOSS
                                                                                                                        Royals (-125) vs Twins ($55.91 to win $44.73) WIN
                                                                                                                        Reds TT OVER 3.5 (-125) vs Dodgers ($55.91 to win $44.73) WIN

                                                                                                                        Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                                                                                        Current Bank: $1151.85
                                                                                                                        YTD: 37-30-1 +$309.62


                                                                                                                        I feel I am getting close to a nice run.....
                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                                            #171
                                                                                                                            August 20

                                                                                                                            Brewers FF (+220) @ Mariners ($57.59 to win $126.70)
                                                                                                                            Rays -1.5 (+190) vs Rangers ($57.59 to win $109.42)


                                                                                                                            I see value here so I will strike....
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • CappinTerp
                                                                                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                • 11-26-09
                                                                                                                                • 9650
                                                                                                                                #172
                                                                                                                                Originally posted by keel44
                                                                                                                                I see things differently. I am doing a long term bankroll growth. It is aggressive, there is no doubt, but I think it is doable. I will not risk anymore than 15% of my bankroll at once. If I want more than 3 plays in a day I will lower the percent risked of each bet.

                                                                                                                                To me a play worth betting on should be risked equally with big favorites or big dogs. I don't believe just because a favorite is more likely to win, it should be risked more. Long term value will show itself. I readjust my 5% every day because I want to fully take advantage of compounding my bankroll.

                                                                                                                                I am convinced now that I have what it takes for long term success. Right now, I want to grow that bankroll.
                                                                                                                                Yea,I agree with you that just because a play is +188,does not mean that one should bet less!! A play/angle should be viewed the same way,when talking about risk. In fact a big fav. one should bet less!!! But with risk mgt. everyone has a view,and either way is correct. For myself don't lay more than -140 and even then it's 2-3 games for the whole season.​ Think about this: A team has a so-so year and will loose 80 games....a team that has a very good season will loose 70 games. And a team that has a Great year will still loose 60 games!!!.....,..GL
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • BaseballChaser
                                                                                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                                    • 06-29-16
                                                                                                                                    • 388
                                                                                                                                    #173
                                                                                                                                    The only reason I say bet less on big dogs is because you're using a 5% of BR per bet. Just my 2 cents. Nice Rays hit. 1-1 on 2 dog plays will do
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                                        #174
                                                                                                                                        August 20

                                                                                                                                        Brewers FF (+220) @ Mariners ($57.59 to win $126.70) LOSS
                                                                                                                                        Rays -1.5 (+190) vs Rangers ($57.59 to win $109.42) WIN

                                                                                                                                        Peralta did his part only allowed 2 runs thru 5. I figured wrong on Felix .... oh well.

                                                                                                                                        Starting Bank: $842.23
                                                                                                                                        Current Bank: $1203.68
                                                                                                                                        YTD: 37-30-1 +$361.45
                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                                                            #175
                                                                                                                                            August 21

                                                                                                                                            Cardinals OVER 8.5 (-115) @ Phillies ($60.18 to win $52.33)
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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