MLB - Friday, 6/10/16

[LT Profits]

Where do you find out if they are goign to open the roof or not and at what time does this release

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

[LT Profits]

Your boy for the Rockies is getting a lot of love today, LT. GL this weekend!

Yeah, books have caught up to Gray. Hell, San Diego seems to have a bit of value, but no Cashner in altitude for me.

[LT Profits]

Looks like it is about to become an 11-Pack Friday

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

11 MLB Plays Friday

Phillies / Nationals UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 4 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Orioles +127 (5 Dimes)
Reds +104 (Heritage)
Athletics / Reds UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Astros -109 (Heritage)
Astros / Rays UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Indians / Angels UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Giants UNDER 5.5 -110 (Heritage)

[Nateboogy]

Would you play under 9.5 on Twins game at -130? I assume your model has it way below 9. I kind of want to wait until it drops to 9 and get + money.

[Slanina]

That's one big card. I don't have enough TVs for this.

[LT Profits]

Would you play under 9.5 on Twins game at -130? I assume your model has it way below 9. I kind of want to wait until it drops to 9 and get + money.

No, wait for 9 OR, if you can, sell down to 9. I would go no higher than -115 at 9.5.

[Nateboogy]

Thanks a lot.

[shadymcgrady]

Hey LT, are your plays based strictly on your simulator or do you have plays based on value?

The Colorado Rockies win the other night for example (which was a great hit). Did that come up as a decent probability in your system or was that based on the inverted disparity of the Dodgers odds? Or a combination of both?

[trobin31]

]

Mag44, you asked about lad vs Sfg bullpens.

I have dodger bullpen with modest advantage.

I brake down bullpens by bottom/middle relievers and top relievers , guys who usually pitch 8 & 9th only.

I have a sizable advantage for dodgers in that bottom half of bullpen vs San Francisco who has a below avg back end. Top relievers like I said are negligible but dodgers still have a slight edge, esp in looking at number of strikeout/walks dodgers have a substantial differential comparef to the giants. I have this stat weighted more heavily for relievers than starters in my equations.

[juicername]

Hey LT, are your plays based strictly on your simulator or do you have plays based on value?

The Colorado Rockies win the other night for example (which was a great hit). Did that come up as a decent probability in your system or was that based on the inverted disparity of the Dodgers odds? Or a combination of both?

In what world are these two not correlated? A model, or simulator if you will, comes up with a win percentage for each team that is compared to the lines given. If there's a big enough difference, it's a play. Just like most of us make picks (but less exact) when we hunch it without a simulator/model.

[44 Mag]

]

Mag44, you asked about lad vs Sfg bullpens.

I have dodger bullpen with modest advantage.

I brake down bullpens by bottom/middle relievers and top relievers , guys who usually pitch 8 & 9th only.

I have a sizable advantage for dodgers in that bottom half of bullpen vs San Francisco who has a below avg back end. Top relievers like I said are negligible but dodgers still have a slight edge, esp in looking at number of strikeout/walks dodgers have a substantial differential comparef to the giants. I have this stat weighted more heavily for relievers than starters in my equations.

Thanks man, good info for all of us. Looks like you do your homework. With any luck Kershaw can go to 4 complete games. Thx again.

[NardVa]

What does the model say about Pitt and St Louis?

[Ralphie1412]

Do you have like a cousin on the Astros or something?

[Redscot]

]

Mag44, you asked about lad vs Sfg bullpens.

I have dodger bullpen with modest advantage.

I brake down bullpens by bottom/middle relievers and top relievers , guys who usually pitch 8 & 9th only.

I have a sizable advantage for dodgers in that bottom half of bullpen vs San Francisco who has a below avg back end. Top relievers like I said are negligible but dodgers still have a slight edge, esp in looking at number of strikeout/walks dodgers have a substantial differential comparef to the giants. I have this stat weighted more heavily for relievers than starters in my equations.

Nice stuff, as an addition over last 2 weeks Dodger BP has the lowest Siera (considered the highest predictive pitcher indicator atm) in MLB at 2.18. With an incredible 35.4% strikeout % compared to a 6.1 BB%. Impressive couple of weeks. I should add that the Giants are 14th over that same span at 3.48 Siera.

[CanuckG]

Cards games going over 64% of the time

[funnyb25]

Do you have like a cousin on the Astros or something?

No. Model just has them still the same as they performed last year

[44 Mag]

No. Model just a them still the same as they performed last year

One year does not translate to the next ???? He even claims one game does not translate to the next. Then he also states he doesn't take weather into consideration, and couldn't care less about a pitchers ERA, WHIP etc. He likes something called xFIP??? This isn't physics class, it is baseball. Are you telling us LT has not tweaked his "model" since last year??? LOL.

[funnyb25]

One year does not translate to the next ???? He even claims one game does not translate to the next. Then he also states he doesn't take weather into consideration, and couldn't care less about a pitchers ERA, WHIP etc. He likes something called xFIP??? This isn't physics class, it is baseball. Are you telling us LT has not tweaked his "model" since last year??? LOL.

Prolly hasn't

[funnyb25]

Should just put the Astros bet for tomorrow in now while I'm logged into my book

[LT Profits]

1 Last MLB Addition

12 MLB Plays Friday

Phillies / Nationals UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 4 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Tigers / Yankees UNDER 10.5 -110 (Heritage)
Orioles +127 (5 Dimes)
Reds +104 (Heritage)
Athletics / Reds UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Astros -109 (Heritage)
Astros / Rays UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Indians / Angels UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Giants UNDER 5.5 -110 (Heritage)

[CanuckG]

A lot of unders.

[RavensFan2k3]

Went from double play to end the inning to a 2 run double for the opposing team wow

[RavensFan2k3]

Guess we overrated McCullers and under estimated Andriese

[RavensFan2k3]

Well Houston is a loss, penetrate

[RavensFan2k3]

Yeah, books have caught up to Gray. Hell, San Diego seems to have a bit of value, but no Cashner in altitude for me.

I may be on San Diego here. Gotta win back this Houston disaster

[funnyb25]

We buried... we will get it back tomorrow

[funnyb25]

The best is indians and giants...both games might go.over in the first inning

[funnyb25]

Lol. Redsox. Guy went from out to 3rd on 2 errors. Love baseball

[Foxx]

Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)

I think this is the first MLB total that I've bet in like 5years. Nothing like extra innings or overtime when you got the under. Still a good chance good a win or push though.

[funnyb25]

Redsox over hit easy

[Slanina]

I think this is the first MLB total that I've bet in like 5years. Nothing like extra innings or overtime when you got the under. Still a good chance good a win or push though.

Epic jinx.

[CanuckG]

Wow STL 6 runs. No wonder they lead in overs.

[RavensFan2k3]

I may be on San Diego here. Gotta win back this Houston disaster

Yeeessss

[RavensFan2k3]

Yeeessss

Fernando Rodney?! Nooo