MLB - Friday, 6/3/16

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 08:24 AM

5 MLB Plays

5 MLB Plays Friday

Mets / Marlins OVER 7 -119 (5 Dimes)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Giants -114 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

Sam Odom · 06-03-16, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

wow

l7ustin · 06-03-16, 09:00 AM

60s?

HeeluvaGuy · 06-03-16, 09:20 AM

I see the model is going against another double-digit over streak. Out of curiosity, does your mode have a backward looking component or is it all based on projections going forward?

Broke Homey · 06-03-16, 09:23 AM

BOL today LT!

BH

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

wow

Both starters grade out well in a pitchers park

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I see the model is going against another double-digit over streak. Out of curiosity, does your mode have a backward looking component or is it all based on projections going forward?

What streak are you talking about, I pay no attention to such things? I know the Arizona streak was broken.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:05 AM

60%ers:

Cubs 69% (-223)
Pittsburgh 61% (-156)
Mets 70% (-233)
Boston 66% (-194)
Cleveland 65% (-186)
Washington 63% (-170)
Houston 62% (-163)
Dodgers 65% (-186)

HeeluvaGuy · 06-03-16, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

What streak are you talking about, I pay no attention to such things? I know the Arizona streak was broken.

KC has 10 straight overs. (Cleveland has 7 straight.)

Jayvegas420 · 06-03-16, 10:23 AM

Any thoughts on the 2:00 game at Wrigley?

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

KC has 10 straight overs. (Cleveland has 7 straight.)

OK. Again, screwed my Under in the 9th inning yesterday.

Model only gets 6.4 tonight, mainly due to Salazar being one of best pitchers in baseball that a lot of people do not talk about. Model has projected score of 3.6-2.8 in favor of Cleveland.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Any thoughts on the 2:00 game at Wrigley?

Doesn't look like it. Model has total of 8.4 and opening totals are popping up at 8.5. You can see from 60%ers that model is practically on Arizona ML, so no value either way.

Jayvegas420 · 06-03-16, 10:37 AM

Quick question LT, does your model take into account weather conditions? Especially four Cubs home games where the lines for the total are delayed?

stackz125 · 06-03-16, 10:42 AM

Toronto worth a shot?
Dickey is a complete dick but price... Well the price ain't right this time lol

HeeluvaGuy · 06-03-16, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

OK. Again, screwed my Under in the 9th inning yesterday.

Model only gets 6.4 tonight, mainly due to Salazar being one of best pitchers in baseball that a lot of people do not talk about. Model has projected score of 3.6-2.8 in favor of Cleveland.

Yep. Salazar is a good reason to stay away from the over here. But I personally couldn't bring myself to bet against the current over trends for both teams.

If if you don't mind, could you address my question about backward looking versus forward looking data in your model? I get the impression that you rely heavily on stat projections going forward (as opposed to past performance in a given situation), but I may be off base.

Regardless, I find your modeling interesting and appreciate your transparency in posting (even if you don't respect streaks

).

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Quick question LT, does your model take into account weather conditions? Especially four Cubs home games where the lines for the total are delayed?

No, weather not part of model. Model does have park factors though and most do not change enough due to weather to worry that much about it with two exceptions: Wrigley (wind) and Arizona (roof). Those are the only two parks that practically play like two different stadiums depending on the conditions.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

If if you don't mind, could you address my question about backward looking versus forward looking data in your model? I get the impression that you rely heavily on stat projections going forward (as opposed to past performance in a given situation), but I may be off base.

).

Aren't saber stats a combination of both?

They are much more predictive than mainstream stats (looking forward), but you have to gather a history of data to compute them (looking back).

HeeluvaGuy · 06-03-16, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Aren't saber stats a combination of both?

They are much more predictive than mainstream stats (looking forward), but you have to gather a history of data to compute them (looking back).

Yeah, that was a poorly worded question, but I think I get what you're doing. Thanks.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by stackz125

Toronto worth a shot?
Dickey is a complete dick but price... Well the price ain't right this time lol

No, see the 60%ers. I have Price -194

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 11:29 AM

2 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Friday

Mets / Marlins OVER 7 -119 (5 Dimes)
White Sox +121 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Giants -114 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

funnyb25 · 06-03-16, 12:57 PM

So we basically have 3 units on the whitesox bats showing up today...lets go..

InsideMan · 06-03-16, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

7 MLB Plays Friday

Mets / Marlins OVER 7 -119 (5 Dimes)
White Sox +121 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Giants -114 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

LT, good job with the picks today. I like these plays today. Thank you so much for answering all our questions.

I know you hardly do any runline picks. What are your thoughts on the Orioles +165 runline today?

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by InsideMan

LT, good job with the picks today. I like these plays today. Thank you so much for answering all our questions.

I know you hardly do any runline picks. What are your thoughts on the Orioles +165 runline today?

Actually I think I have made four run line picks this year and they are 4-0.

But back to your question, no I hate it because I lean toward Yankees money line. I actually rate Eovaldi a little better than Tillman despite the records.

InsideMan · 06-03-16, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Actually I think I have made four run line picks this year and they are 4-0.

But back to your question, no I hate it because I lean toward Yankees money line. I actually rate Eovaldi a little better than Tillman despite the records.

Thank you, LT.

With that great 4-0 record, you should do runlines more often.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by InsideMan

Thank you, LT.

With that great 4-0 record, you should do runlines more often.

Meh, I play so few of them because they very rarely have value.

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 02:29 PM

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

8 MLB Plays Friday

Mets / Marlins OVER 7 -119 (5 Dimes)
White Sox +121 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Indians -0.5 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Giants -114 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 05:03 PM

1 Last MLB Addition

9 MLB Plays Friday

Mets / Marlins OVER 7 -119 (5 Dimes)
Nationals / Reds UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox +121 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox / Tigers OVER 5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Indians -0.5 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Giants -114 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

funnyb25 · 06-03-16, 05:06 PM

Would u play Under 9 -105?

LT Profits · 06-03-16, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Would u play Under 9 -105?

No but I would play Under 9 +100

eddycash · 06-03-16, 05:15 PM

More like would u take reds under 9 +108?

eddycash · 06-03-16, 05:16 PM

Oops nvm gl

funnyb25 · 06-03-16, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No but I would play Under 9 +100

its now +100

funnyb25 · 06-03-16, 07:39 PM

very rough run for us

funnyb25 · 06-03-16, 07:40 PM

we are 0-3 in 1 game...fok...