MLB - Tuesday, 5/31/16

[RavensFan2k3]

Right. I meant weak offense combined with good young pitcher makes Under good.

That is a good looking under

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Houston/Arizona FF UNDER 5?

Played it this morning at Under 5 -115, it's -125 now. Not sure if I'm feeling good or bad about it.

I'd feel good about it at -115.

[RavensFan2k3]

This Houston line has grown...faack

[LT Profits]

Curious by what metric Houston has a big edge offensively in this one. Even after yesterday's explosion against that minor league pitcher, the Astros are averaging just 3.2 runs against lefties.

It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.

[RavensFan2k3]

It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.

Positive regression? Like progression or advancement?

[LT Profits]

Positive regression? Like progression or advancement?

Regression to the mean isn't always negative.

[RavensFan2k3]

Regression to the mean isn't always negative.

Ahh this is true. Tell me about the Rays pick. I don't like Dillion Gee, but I can't use that as a reason to bet against him

[LT Profits]

Ahh this is true. Tell me about the Rays pick. I don't like Dillion Gee, but I can't use that as a reason to bet against him

You are right about Gee, but also Smyley has very strong peripherals even with a few sub-par starts lately, especially the 9.73 strikeouts vs. 2.18 walks. He actually has the highest WAR on the Tampa Bay staff right now, which makes him their sabermetric ace.

[RavensFan2k3]

You are right about Gee, but also Smyley has very strong peripherals even with a few sub-par starts lately, especially the 9.73 strikeouts vs. 2.18 walks. He actually has the highest WAR on the Tampa Bay staff right now, which makes him their sabermetric ace.

What you're saying makes sense, but the more I look at this line, the more it looks like KC is the right side

[blackeyeshamus]

Regression to the mean isn't always negative.

💡💡💡💡💡💡💡💡

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Astros -115 (Heritage)
Astros / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Orioles UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees +136 (Bookmaker)
Giants / Braves UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Rays -116 (5 Dimes)

[RavensFan2k3]

Goodluck

[funnyb25]

We need Astros to only lose juice.

[funnyb25]

Shields 2.2ip 10 er...lol...

[RavensFan2k3]

Shields 2.2ip 10 er...lol...

Lmfaoooo. I see why there are trade talks with him

[funnyb25]

If the pads would have let perdomo keep going he might have caught shields. 2.2 ip 10 er for shields....2.0 ip 6 er for perdamo. Not bad..

[LT Profits]

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

7 MLB Plays Tuesday

Astros -115 (Heritage)
Astros / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Orioles UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees +136 (Bookmaker)
Giants / Braves UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Rays -116 (5 Dimes)
Rays -0.5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)

[l7ustin]

Not too late to add Phillies first 5

[eddycash]

Still like Yankees with the line movement?

[LT Profits]

Still like Yankees with the line movement?

I have no choice, the deed is done. I didn't expect the Yankees B-team lineup. With that said, lefty batters Gardner and McCann are sitting against a southpaw and A-Rod sitting is no big deal nowadays, so the line move does seem drastic. In other words, yes this is still value with the seemingly inflated price compensating for the lineup.

[funnyb25]

Yo LT. Have you ever noticed how well your original plays do compared to the added plays?

[HeeluvaGuy]

It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.

Well, they'll see another lefty tomorrow in Robbie Ray. That's 11 straight overs in Arizona games (but I know you don't play streaks ).

[eddycash]

bol fellaz thanks LT

[RavensFan2k3]

What you're saying makes sense, but the more I look at this line, the more it looks like KC is the right side

Still half the game left but I hope someone listened

[LT Profits]

Well, they'll see another lefty tomorrow in Robbie Ray. That's 11 straight overs in Arizona games (but I know you don't play streaks ).

And the last three have been with the roof closed, so has had more to do with lousy pitching than the ball carrying.

[LT Profits]

Promising start but looking like another losing day at 3-4.

[l7ustin]

Better luck tomorrow LT.