MLB - Monday, 5/23/16

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 07:07 AM

Tonight features the first 80%er that I have ever seen!

Dodgers 80% (-400)

There are no other 60%ers on Monday

44 Mag · 05-23-16, 08:54 AM

Being a mod., how does the Loiusvillekid1 have two identical threads, one on top of the other. LOL.

juicername · 05-23-16, 09:35 AM

What is everybody seeing in Minnesota tonight that I'm missing? Nolasco is a straight up bum no?

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by juicername

What is everybody seeing in Minnesota tonight that I'm missing? Nolasco is a straight up bum no?

Kennedy not worthy of being a road favorite, his ERA is deceptive considering his .258 BABIP, his 4.15 FIP and 428 xFIP are truer measures of his ability. Nolasco has a high ERA but he will not beat himself as he has just nine walks all year vs. 43 strikeouts in 49.1 innings, and plus Gordon might be out for Royals. And don't forget Nolasco's best start this year was at KC, where he allowed one run and just three hits in seven innings with 5 Ks and not a single walk.

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Being a mod., how does the Loiusvillekid1 have two identical threads, one on top of the other. LOL.

I passed this along, I am scared to try and fix myself because I am worried that if I delete one, I might delete them both.

juicername · 05-23-16, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Kennedy not worthy of being a road favorite, his ERA is deceptive considering his .258 BABIP, his 4.15 FIP and 428 xFIP are truer measures of his ability. Nolasco has a high ERA but he will not beat himself as he has just nine walks all year vs. 43 strikeouts in 49.1 innings, and plus Gordon might be out for Royals. And don't forget Nolasco's best start this year was at KC, where he allowed one run and just three hits in seven innings with 5 Ks and not a single walk.

Makes sense. Cheers.

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I passed this along, I am scared to try and fix myself because I am worried that if I delete one, I might delete them both.

It got fixed.

44 Mag · 05-23-16, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It got fixed.

I was just curious??? Good work.

Any thoughts on the first game at 12:30 PM ???? I am leaning over, Lyles has been getting pummeled and Vogelsong coming out of the pen, kind of washed up ???

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

I was just curious??? Good work.

Any thoughts on the first game at 12:30 PM ???? I am leaning over, Lyles has been getting pummeled and Vogelsong coming out of the pen, kind of washed up ???

Nothing at all for me, slightest or leans toward Rocks at + odds, but not enough

JohnD25 · 05-23-16, 11:11 AM

LT always loved your insight and have tailed you on many plays.

My opinion on KC and MIN.

Kennedy has won 3 of his 4 on the road, with a lower ERA than at home this year. Not worthy of a road favorite? That's where hes been strong at this year.

Nolasco's last 4 starts have been horrible, barely making it out of the 5th inning.

Even though Gordon MAY be out tonight, hes kinda been irrelevant this whole season, definitely not the Gordon we've seen last year!

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by JohnD25

LT always loved your insight and have tailed you on many plays.

My opinion on KC and MIN.

Kennedy has won 3 of his 4 on the road, with a lower ERA than at home this year. Not worthy of a road favorite? That's where hes been strong at this year.

Nolasco's last 4 starts have been horrible, barely making it out of the 5th inning.

Even though Gordon MAY be out tonight, hes kinda been irrelevant this whole season, definitely not the Gordon we've seen last year!

xFIP is park adjusted, so Kennedy's 4.28 translates to all starts. Don't get caught up in winning road record, he has been lucky with the BABIP.

And I get that Nolasco is not a world beater, but he actually has a 3.72 FIP and 3,75 xFIP. Even his 0.8 WAR is marginally better than Kennedy's 0.6. So starters are too close for one to be a road favorite.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-23-16, 11:48 AM

Goodluck!

MMA_Oracle · 05-23-16, 12:24 PM

LT regarding the Padres, arent you worried about their long game against the Dodgers yesterday and their BP being taxed? Pomeranz has had issues going deep into games as well

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by MMA_Oracle

LT regarding the Padres, arent you worried about their long game against the Dodgers yesterday and their BP being taxed? Pomeranz has had issues going deep into games as well

Just a bit but the +163 makes it worth it. Model has Giants 59% (-144).

MMA_Oracle · 05-23-16, 12:53 PM

best of luck!

SEAHAWKHARRY · 05-23-16, 01:31 PM

Lt how did you find out those two pitchers are being sent diwn

Also does that usually indicate a sloppy performance on both??

HeeluvaGuy · 05-23-16, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

Lt how did you find out those two pitchers are being sent diwn

Also does that usually indicate a sloppy performance on both??

I believe they were just added under the 26-man roster rule for doubleheaders.

LT Profits · 05-23-16, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

Lt how did you find out those two pitchers are being sent diwn

Also does that usually indicate a sloppy performance on both??

They were both called up today specifically to start Game 2 as the 26th man on roster. And no, that does not always indicate a sloppy performance, but in this specific case both were up in the majors earlier this year and both shit the bed. Anderson had nearly an 8.00 ERA in seven games (six starts) before the Indians had seen enough, and while Johnson was only up for one bad start earlier this year, he has a weak ratio at Triple-A with 6.37 strikeouts vs. 3.06 walks per nine innings.

Reck · 05-23-16, 04:29 PM

Betting over in GM2. Wind blowing in, but Frazier and Napoli have both gone deep so far in game 1.

Hopefully this will mean weather not much of a factor.

KickShootThrow · 05-23-16, 04:52 PM

LT please be mindful of the fact that Kennedy made his season debut vs the Twins at home and pitched a flawless 6.2 innings, only giving up 5 hits and 0 runs. He struck out 7 on this day and Minnesota bats can't seem to connect w/ him.

Originally posted by LT Profits

xFIP is park adjusted, so Kennedy's 4.28 translates to all starts. Don't get caught up in winning road record, he has been lucky with the BABIP.

And I get that Nolasco is not a world beater, but he actually has a 3.72 FIP and 3,75 xFIP. Even his 0.8 WAR is marginally better than Kennedy's 0.6. So starters are too close for one to be a road favorite.

TH0R · 05-23-16, 08:05 PM

LT, any value on the Dodgers game over 6 +105?

Thanks

Ghenghis Kahn · 05-23-16, 08:16 PM

two teams i will not touch at the moment.

minnesota and houston... even when the system fits, they can't pull it off.

funnyb25 · 05-23-16, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn

two teams i will not touch at the moment.

minnesota and houston... even when the system fits, they can't pull it off.

Twins vs Astros got a 4 game set in August...should be some good betting opportunities

Ghenghis Kahn · 05-23-16, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Twins vs Astros got a 4 game set in August...should be some good betting opportunities

maybe but i've lost the most on those two teams than any others this year.