MLB - Sunday, 4/10/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Sunday

Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Indians / White Sox UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Dodgers +119 (Heritage)


YTD: 12-9, +5.71

[Nateboogy]

Under 7.5 even money on white sox too far off?

[LT Profits]

Under 7.5 even money on white sox too far off?

That is fine at +100

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Mets 67% (-203)
St. Louis 65% (-186)
Washington 61% (-156)
Houston 61% (-156)
Seattle 64% (-178)
Cubs 65% (-186)

[Rigbone]

Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.

[afgballer56]

what you think abt blue jays today

[LT Profits]

Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.

A little bit of value on Phils but I am passing as of now.

[LT Profits]

what you think abt blue jays today

Model loves Red Sox, only has Jays at 55% (-122). I just don't like that line opened close to model number and has since run away so much from it.

[NJsportsGuy732]

Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.

I don't think the Mets will lose back to back games to the phils, especially with Harvey on the mound.

[jmac227]

what do you think of Pirates -120 today LT?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Curious LT I've seen you mention numerous times you don't like when a line opens close to your model and runs away giving your model even greater value. Have you done any tracking on results of these occasions? Personally I don't put much stock in those huge 20/40 cent line moves and have seen results both ways. I know for a good stretch last year I was noticing a -155 type fave with public hammering it going wrong way closing much cheaper and "Joe square" was cashing easy still.

[LT Profits]

what do you think of Pirates -120 today LT?

Model has Pirates 57% (-133), my concern there is limited data for Melville.

[Meansteam]

All good picks

[LT Profits]

A little bit of value on Phils but I am passing as of now.

I went ahead and added them.

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Phillies +231 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Indians / White Sox UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Indians / White Sox UNDER 4 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rangers -103 (Heritage)
Dodgers +119 (Heritage)
Yankees -107 (Heritage)

[Winner_13]

LT, could I ask how cone you do not play favorites of -130 or greater bUT play underdogs of greater than +130?
Value is value no?

Thanks LT and wish you much success

[aortega521]

LT for a 2150 bank roll that I've built from 250 what would would youreally unit size be per wager as I think you've said you keep every wager the same

[Vinnie Paz]

Is your Twitter username your real name, LT ?

[agendaman]

verlander hasn't beat the Yankees since 2012

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Always hurts tailing on plays like philli but its got to be donr

[Jayvegas420]

Model loves Red Sox, only has Jays at 55% (-122). I just don't like that line opened close to model number and has since run away so much from it.

Estrada is much improved this year. His change up has added a huge advantage to his arsenal.
He always pitches better when diono Navajo is behind the dish.


That being said I was all over the red sox, in play after the Jays scored 2 in the 1st.

GL LT

[IMG][/IMG]

[jgold254]

Indians v White Sox postponed...

[POOLSIDE]

Arizona at +194 isn't a play?

[jgold254]

Arizona at +194 isn't a play?

Against Arrieta? I'd say no sir...

[POOLSIDE]

Against Arrieta? I'd say no sir...

Eh, tons of value there. It's just a number I'm playing. What if Arizona was +300? +500? I don't care about arrieta. I know he'll probably win. But he won't always win. What percentage of the time does he lose this game? That's all I care.

[jgold254]

Eh, tons of value there. It's just a number I'm playing. What if Arizona was +300? +500? I don't care about arrieta. I know he'll probably win. But he won't always win. What percentage of the time does he lose this game? That's all I care.

Oh, I get what you're saying. But (arguably) the best team in baseball going with their best pitcher against Miller's 9.00ERA. I don't see "tons of value" there at all... I'd say maybe the value begins at around +210.

[jgold254]

But then again... Today I'm a guy that played the under in the Braves game by pure accident. Perhaps my thoughts aren't worth much today...

[LT Profits]

Arizona at +194 isn't a play?

Look at my post with the 60%ers, I get Cubs 65% (-186). So just a smidgeon of value at +194, not enough to get excited.

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Sunday

Phillies +231 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Rangers -103 (Heritage)
Dodgers +119 (Heritage)
Yankees -107 (Heritage)
Yankees / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

[Breadloser]

Phillies subsidized the rest of everyone's day. How anyone could fall for that fat pig at 1.30 is amazing.

[jgold254]

Yankees -107 (Heritage)
Yankees / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

LT, yanks game already postponed.

[NJsportsGuy732]

LT, yanks game already postponed.

It is?????

[POOLSIDE]

LT, yanks game already postponed.

So they definitely won't be scoring eight runs

[LT Profits]

OK so now down to 4 plays after Postponements.

[jgold254]

It is?????

Yessir. Following the game tweets...