iloseagain's' MLB thread

[iloseagain]

Here's to getting back to Even or better today!

Lets get it!


1 System Play
Mil +130 0.5x

[iloseagain]

I didn't realize Cards TT O4 was only -115...that should at least push, but I don't see them having too much trouble getting that vs. Chase Anderson with a career 4+ ERA on the road vs a Cards team whose bats are en fuego right now.

exactly.. love their recent form. If they dont hit today, they dont hit, but i have to play the over TT and over for the game based on what theyve been doing lately

[iloseagain]

wanted to play this for fun

Cin +180 0.5x

[ship2volk]

Mia +110*
LAA -110*

[iloseagain]

hmm stl is now u7.5 -120.. I got o8 -110.. Lots of down line movement here.. cards tt stuck at 4 -115 though
Bos moved down to 8.5
Wash moved down to 7
bad line on balt too. they +120 now. I got +105

I dont like the line movement in any of these

[iloseagain]

Strausburg scratched.. Makes my over on that game a no play.

[iloseagain]

Adding 1x on sea/tex u7.5. So u8* and u7.5*. Also sea tt u4 -115*

[iloseagain]

Tor -120**
Bos/Bal o9 -120***
Bal +105*
Zona/LAD o7.5 -125*
Atl/Was o7.5 EV*
Stl/Mil o8***
Cle o7 EV**
Tex/Sea u8 -110*
tex/sea u7.5 -110*
sea tt u4 -115*
Mia +108**
Mets tt u3.5 -115 0.5x
Cards TT o4 -115**
Bal tt o4 -125*

Parlay 0.5x to win 3.7x
Cin +190/Atl +190

Parlay 0.5x to win 4.6x
Stl/bos o9/sf o12/tor

Parlay 1x to win 10.9x
Stl o8/sf/tor/bos o9

[iloseagain]

Tor -120**
Bos/Bal o9 -120***
Bal +105*
Zona/LAD o7.5 -125*
Atl/Was o7.5 EV*
Stl/Mil o8***
Cle o7 EV**
Tex/Sea u8 -110*
tex/sea u7.5 -110*
sea tt u4 -115*
Mia +108**
Mets tt u3.5 -115 0.5x
Cards TT o4 -115**
Bal tt o4 -125*

Parlay 0.5x to win 3.7x
Cin +190/Atl +190

Parlay 0.5x to win 4.6x
Stl/bos o9/sf o12/tor

Parlay 1x to win 10.9x
Stl o8/sf/tor/bos o9

[iloseagain]

mil/stl is down to o7 -120 what is going on?

[ship2volk]

Zona/Dodgers over 7.5 -110*
SF/COL under -11.5 -120*
MIL +130*
BOS/BAL over 8.5 -110*

[iloseagain]

add 1 unit at Tor -1.5 +160

3 units total on Tor

GL Volk

[iloseagain]

last one

cin/chc o7.5*

[iloseagain]

Tor -120**
Tor -1.5 +160*
Bos/Bal o9 -120***
Bal +105*
Zona/LAD o7.5 -125*
Atl/Was o7.5 EV*
Stl/Mil o8***
Cle o7 EV**
Tex/Sea u8 -110*
tex/sea u7.5 -110*
sea tt u4 -115*
Mia +108**
Mets tt u3.5 -115 0.5x
Cards TT o4 -115**
Bal tt o4 -125*
Cin/Chc o7.5 -110*

Parlay 0.5x to win 3.7x
Cin +190/Atl +190

Parlay 0.5x to win 4.6x
Stl/bos o9/sf o12/tor

Parlay 1x to win 10.9x
Stl o8/sf/tor/bos o9

[iloseagain]

fukk sea hits a 2 run HR to win 4-2.. Unders still hit.. TT pushes, but thats annoying

[ship2volk]

add 1 unit at Tor -1.5 +160

3 units total on Tor

GL Volk

Tnx

[iloseagain]

stl 3 in the 1st inning. 3-1. Not sure why that over moved down a full run to 7.. Looks like im right again. Stl TT and o8 looking great already

EDIT: glad i adden cin/chc o7.5.. 4-1 in the 1st already.. Man does MLB feel easy to me right now.. Looking like another HUGE day already

[iloseagain]

bad bet on cle o7.. everything else looks good. even the parlays as of now

EDIT: yanks with a 331 ft solo shot to go down 1 in the 8th.. GTFO
cash cubs/cin o7.5 in the 3rd inning
Machado just made the 3rd out at 3rd trying to steal with Chris Davis up... Are you fukking kidding me? Why even bother stealing there? You are already in scoring position.. Unreal

Toronto back up 5-2 now phew

OMG now st louis tries to steal 3rd with 1 out and gets thrown out.. What are these guys doing trying to steal 3rd???? Just stay in scoring position god fukking damnit.. If stl gets 3 in the 1st and doesnt get 1 more, i will flip

[iloseagain]

7-5 -1.75 tonight so far. Zona over not looking good. Unreal Stl with 3 runs in the 1st and ends on 4. Embarrassing. Boston game had 6 runs thru 4 innings and ends on 6.. A potential good night ruined by 2 stupid bets.

System Plays
1-0 +0.65x


System Plays total
8-9 -0.85x

Overall
44-50 -9.82 units

Zona over pending

EDITED for zona over LOSS.

[spicollifcfd]

Dude did u do the over in Colorado game. Easy hit hope you slammed it bruh.

[iloseagain]

Dude did u do the over in Colorado game. Easy hit hope you slammed it bruh.

ehh played it in a parlay, but not straight.. Good hit.. I did like the over but i had enough plays, and nash was on under.. Dont like to bet against him

[iloseagain]

4/14
Phi -127* (really like Velasquez. Sd sucks at offense)
Phi/SD u7* (dont see SD scoring more than 2 or 3. Phi wont score 5 themselves. Only problem is chance of 3-3 tie and push)
Stl o8 -105** (Stl offense is red hot. Only 4 runs tonight, but Peralta sucks. They will get 5-6 tomorrow)
Cws/Min u8 EV* (neither team can score. Both pitchers pitched well last time. Hopefully Latos doesnt give up 7)
Cle/TB u7 -120*** (Again, neither team has a good offense. Salazar should completely shut down TB shit offense. Archer has had 2 bad outings. I imagine he gets it going tomorrow at home. Arch career 2.98 ERA pitcher in day games)
Tor -155* (lot of juice. Stroman hasnt pitched great, but hes legit. Yanks cant hit at the moment and Eovaldi throws 99 right down the middle to a good fastball hitting team. Toronto in a rout)
Det/Pit u7 -110** (cole gets back on track. Zimm pitches well. This should be an easy day under tomorrow.)
Tex -130** (Orioles travel overnight from boston to texas and have to play tomorrow against a good pitcher in Hamels. Orioles are due for a bit of a slump as well.. Perfect spot to fade orioles. Like under too, but not sure i can play it right now at u8.5 -120)

[iloseagain]

As of now, looks like no system plays for 4/14

System plays to this point have been right around .500, with a small loss in units. I think once the season starts getting further ahead, these plays will start hitting at a better rate. It has been tracked (not by me) for a decade and only ONE year has it lost for the season, and it was something like a measly -3 units or so.

Basically the system is:
-Dog of +120 or higher (sometimes i play +110 to +120 for smaller)
-Total of 8.5 or higher (i play lower totals for smaller)
-The favorite won their last game
-The favorite has win % of .600 or higher
-The dog has win % of .599 or lower
-70% bets or higher on the favorite
-Game played during regular season

The thing about this system is that the higher the total, the better the ROI. Its been profitable for totals less than 8.5 (hence why i still play them, but for smaller), but once we hit that 8.5 number, the ROI jumps up significantly. Totals of 10.5+, the ROI jumps again SIGNIFICANTLY. Also, the ROI jumps up quite a bit when we play against a team that WON their last game. This system will start kicking ass soon enough, just wait and see.

Because its early in the season and we havent had many games, i have sort of been ignoring the 60%+ win percentage and the 59% or less win percentage. Once there are more games, i will be able to follow this better and weed out the games that may not have qualified in the past.

[iloseagain]

Jumping on cle/tb 1h u3.5 -110**

[RollinDo]

As of now, looks like no system plays for 4/14

System plays to this point have been right around .500, with a small loss in units. I think once the season starts getting further ahead, these plays will start hitting at a better rate. It has been tracked (not by me) for a decade and only ONE year has it lost for the season, and it was something like a measly -3 units or so.

Basically the system is:
-Dog of +120 or higher (sometimes i play +110 to +120 for smaller)
-Total of 8.5 or higher (i play lower totals for smaller)
-The favorite won their last game
-The favorite has win % of .600 or higher
-The dog has win % of .599 or lower
-70% bets or higher on the favorite
-Game played during regular season

The thing about this system is that the higher the total, the better the ROI. Its been profitable for totals less than 8.5 (hence why i still play them, but for smaller), but once we hit that 8.5 number, the ROI jumps up significantly. Totals of 10.5+, the ROI jumps again SIGNIFICANTLY. Also, the ROI jumps up quite a bit when we play against a team that WON their last game. This system will start kicking ass soon enough, just wait and see.

Because its early in the season and we havent had many games, i have sort of been ignoring the 60%+ win percentage and the 59% or less win percentage. Once there are more games, i will be able to follow this better and weed out the games that may not have qualified in the past.

Dang - I overlooked the Under in Philly today...took it yesterday.

I agree with most of your plays today. Let's get this Rays Under!

[RollinDo]

Can't believe I've passed up on all these White Sox and Twins Unders...the only Sox Under I played went Over.

[iloseagain]

Dang - I overlooked the Under in Philly today...took it yesterday.

I agree with most of your plays today. Let's get this Rays Under!

what do you mean you overlooked it today, but took it yesterday?

Can't believe I've passed up on all these White Sox and Twins Unders...the only Sox Under I played went Over.

yea this will be the one to go over. It jumped to o8.5 -115

[iloseagain]

stl o4.5 -115**
sf o5.5 -115**

one of these will hit

Not playing SF. Deleted play

[iloseagain]

Velasquez is DEALING. 5IP 3H 0BB 7K

Stl 3 runs in the 2nd. Lets see if we can hit the TT this time though

[iloseagain]

Col TT o5.5 -115*
Tor TT o4.5 -115***

[iloseagain]

Early Games
Phi -127*
Phi/SD u7*
Stl o8 -105**
Cws/Min u8 EV*
Cle/TB u7 -120***
cle/tb 1h u3.5 -110**
stl o4.5 -115**
Det/Pit u7 -110**
sf o5.5 -115**
Col TT o5.5 -115*

Late Games
Tor -155*
Tex -130**
Tor TT o4.5 -115***

[iloseagain]

Cash Stl TT in the 3rd! Over for game looks good too.. This over went down to u7.5 -120 again, just like last night.. Im not sure who is betting these games down, but Stl is as hot as anyone so im not sure what the hell they are thinking

Philly and under looking good. Cle/tb unders looking good 1-0 mid 5. White sox under lookin good 2-1 mid 6. Detroit under looking good 4-0 bot 7, but 2 on no outs here.. Need to avoid big inning here
EDIT: fail in detroit. bullpens fukk me.. need to play 1h under instead next time

[iloseagain]

cash philly and under. Cleveland is gona fukk the over themselves. TB bullpen is terrible. Stl game gonna suck me out again with 5 runs in the 3rd, and none the rest of the way. Unreal. At least i got the TT this time

[iloseagain]

1h Wash -0.5 -145 0.5x
Wash -1.5 -105*
Atl TT u3 -140 0.5x

[ship2volk]

Zona/Dodgers over 7.5 -110*
SF/COL under -11.5 -120*
MIL +130*
BOS/BAL over 8.5 -110*
Mia +110*
LAA -110*

Ytd 12-15 -3.87u