MLB - Monday, 4/4/16

[nspa87]

Those numbers, on a long enough timeline, are not worth playing. Look at it this way. If a team has a 60% chance of winning, they're winning three out of five times. The "correct" odds would be -150. That would be no advantage for the bettor or the house. To get that number, run the game five times. You'd have three wins for a total profit of 3.00 units and you'd have two losses for a total loss of 3.00 units. Break even.

If you've got a game that's a 60% win, you'd need to be laying less than -150 to have any value. I have no idea at what number LT would deem the game bettable, but anything under -150 technically has value. Assuming the 60% holds true, you'd even make a very small profit over time at -149. LT can chime in if he wants on where he believes value begins, as well as where he thinks there's "too much" value.

The flip side of that same game is obviously betting the dog. At 60% with +150 odds, the dog is break even. Same math as above, except we lose three at units a piece and win two at one and a half units a piece. If you're getting better than +150 on this game, there's value.

Obviously these numbers change depending if the game is 60% or 64% or 71% or whatever.

This was really useful info. My local bookie's juice is always so ****** up and sometimes I find myself taking plays that end up not making sense due to the juice involved. In other words, sometimes the favorite is priced like -210 vs. +185 and I'll find myself taking the -200 instead of the +185 when I should have been on the other side of the bet on principal. Do you have a calculator that helps you figure out the break even analysis on your perceived value or edge vs the juice or line involved?

[POOLSIDE]

Nice work LT. Let's get this rolling early.

[shaunovery]

Nice start lt

[HurlSweatPants]

Another banner day great job LT

[Smoke]

60%ers:

San Francisco 61% (-156)
Washington 68% (-213)
Cincinnati 61% (-156)
Dodgers 63% (-170)
Arizona 64% (-178)

I bet against Arizona at +210.

4-1