CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for 4/26/09

[cocknocker]

Well only 5 days left until my off season. I will be back in late August/early September. Let's see if I can find some good Crumbs games to go after today:

Nats+165
Nats -1.5 +250 Reverse runline
Astros+100 Crumbs Play-O-The -Day
White Sox+140
White Sox-1.5 +250 Reverse runline for home dog

Those are my three games. I wish you all good luck!

[wangichu]

what, you're not bumpin' marquis @ +120 to avoid the sweep and salvage one of the first 6 games between these two? Situation looks pretty enticing, and marquis' had a couple of good outings and looks good to bounce back from his visit to zona. The over could hit again too, but i won that play in the first two games of the series so i won't push it.

COL ML

otherwise, i'll probably just play it your way and focus on basketball.

[vassman86]

Tigers 1H ML
Simply put, Galaragga is sharp. Against the Royals, he's even better. Last season in Kauffman stadium, he pitched 7 innings of work, giving up 3H, 1R, 1BB, 7K for the win.

The Tigers' batters have Ponson figured out as they've managed a .345 BA and .388 OBP. Coming off of a rough start in his last outting, Ponson pitched 3.1 innings, allowing 8H, 6ER, 1HR, 4BB over 80 pitches.

He shall continue to lose...at least for the first half of the game, while Galaragga is doing his job.

[Dexter]

sunday-

jordan zimmerman is one of the better pitching prospects in the game, and his arm was completely live in his first start vs the braves. oliver perez is a wild headcase who folds any time men are on base. he has a career era/whip vs the nats of 6.53/1.65 including a couple of rough games last year. nats avoid the sweep.

-nats +170

while manny parra is a talented young arm who i expect good things from this year, hes in a funk right now - and the right handed bats of Tejada, Pence, Lee and Berkman is a bad lineup for the lefty to face. i'll never put my money on russ ortiz, so i'm gonna side with the sharps who have already moved this total from 9.5 to 10.

-over astros 10/-120

as always, give me the ace (harden) at a price to stop the bleeding.

-cubs -130 (2x)

halladay has a 2.86/1.05 era/whip in his last 3 starts while contreras has an 8.05/1.92. again, i'll take the ace off his teams loss.

-bluejays -1.5/+100 (2x)

sidney ponson goes for kc on sunday - he's real bad and has a 7.05/1.96 era/whip in his first 3 starts and has a career 6.62/1.65 vs detroit including a beating last year of 6er in 3ip. gallaraga has been solid to start 2009 and has a 1.96/1.20 in his first 3 starts - 14ip/3er and 2 wins vs the royals in 2008.

-tigers -1.5/+110 (2x)

[peterpan19]

wangichu
I like the Rockies too today...but I will take them for 5 Innings only... if the Dodgers get to him early the game will be ovre early if Marquis can keep them in the gmae they should win the first 5 Innings but I wouldnt trust that pen here

GL

[Jimbo42]

Good morning fellas!
Early games (got a couple in my back pocket for later)
Booked:

St.Louis +105 (home dog in div rival always strong play, St.Louis has all the momentum.. Cubs NOT...Cards undervalued here)

Chicago White Sox +140 (my little streak systems work w/pitchers too.... Halladay 3 straight good starts with a win... last game took the loss...he will be on a downturn in his cycle.. got to take the big plus money and give it a shot)

Kansas City +130 (Good value with an undervalued team...)

GL fellas!

[cocknocker]

Good to see we both have the Pale Hose, Jimbo! I was thinking the same thing. You've got to love those crumbs

[Dexter]

i knew wang would be on col....fade kershaw and his curveball in the thin air of colorado. no break on that pitch today.

just missed the cut for me...

[jellobiafra]

Can I just mention MIN here? Two days in a row they have cashed reverse run line. Once again they trot out the better pitcher and the better team vs. CLE. Once again they are dogs.

I'm riding this wave through the entire series. Not pressing my luck with another reverse run line. Just straight play. MIN +110

[kevindakota00]

dont make a habbit of betting against halladay

[cocknocker]

Minnesota has definitely filled my pockets already in this series too. I'm gonna sit this one out, Jello, but by all means ride them until the f*ckin wheels fall off, babe! I don't know why they keep on getting crumbs in this series. It is painfully true and easy to see that Cleveland just struck lightning in a bottle whn the crushed the Yanks. Minny has the better team!

[Dexter]

dont make a habbit of betting against halladay

esp when backing a horror show like contreras...

[cocknocker]

dont make a habbit of betting against halladay

I hate to say it, but each and every time that he is -150 or more I am going to pound the other side. I did it blindly last year and I think I came up with 9 wins and only 1-2 losses. There aren't many pitchers worthy of a -150 price tag. Although he is a great pitcher, he is very ordinary when put up against the big number

[cocknocker]

Contreras is a war horse. He will pile up his innings today. And although he's not going to blow anyone away with his fastball, if he has his corner magic working and is getting favorable calls from the ump, he may get it done.

The Blue Birds play indoors on carpet. The Pale Hose play outside on grass. The Blue Birds are out of their element. Halladay shouldn't be a -150 or so favorite on the road against one of the better hitting teams in the league. He's gonna get rushed today. White Sox will win this one going away 10-6

[jellobiafra]

The CWS bats are hot too. I was reluctant to back this one when discussing it with Pair of 5s in his thread. He's playing it in conjunction with KC today - double dog contrarian play. Goal is to hit one of two dogs with good value and make profit. I'm tailing him on both because I really like his style (finding contrarian angles) and he's getting warm it seems. I think 1 of those 2 will cash today.

[cocknocker]

Well lads, time to get to work. I'll check back in later on today

[cockblocker]

Nats -1.5 +250 Reverse runline for home dog

How can you cap a game based on a team being at home and don't even know where its being played?

The is game is being played in New York.

[Euphoria38]

Dude from losing money on the White Sox this year stay away from them when they are facing a good pitcher. They either hit you or they dont, and someone posted Halladay's numbers against them and they suck. Even though it isnt worth the odds as you say, the Jays are the better team. Contreras is garbage, even though he seems to be coming along the Jays will touch him up.

BE WARE OF THE WHITE HOSE

[peterpan19]

ok guys early games I like so far:
Was
I thought about 5 Innings here, but we all saw how bad the Mets bullpen can be on Friday... Zimmerman was really nice in his first start, even if he had to wait two hours or so bc of a rain delay... Perez numbers against Was are awful and you just have to believe the Mets bullpen will suck today (btw they were unable to sweep a team this year so far, even so they had their chance against Cin and Mil)

Texas
McCarthy looked really good in his first start this year against Baltimore and I just think he will continue today... Texas bats are hot and even if Bergesen pitched great in his last start... brandon has a 2.25 ERA against the Orioles... plus they are the dog in that one... btw if Baltimore losses today I will probably take them on Monday on the RL (-1) to avoid the sweep

HOU (2x)
ck this one is a really nice pick...normally i wouldnt go with ortiz (still hate him from his days with the Dbacks), but Parra is just..ouch..right now... and with Hou bats pretty hot so far and at +110 so far and considering that Braun has no AB against Ortiz I will give it a shot...

Det -1 (4x)
fading Ponson here again...and today we even have Armando on the other side of it

Cubs -1 (2x)
Cardinals wont sweep the Cubs not here and not today...they just wont loose 5 in a row... and even if they do I will take them against Arizona and double up until they win... bc I know they will win at least one game against the Dbacks

Col 5 Innings

still considering: A's, Mariners and Dbacks for the later games

[Chi_archie]

Contreras is a war horse. He will pile up his innings today. And although he's not going to blow anyone away with his fastball, if he has his corner magic working and is getting favorable calls from the ump, he may get it done.

The Blue Birds play indoors on carpet. The Pale Hose play outside on grass. The Blue Birds are out of their element. Halladay shouldn't be a -150 or so favorite on the road against one of the better hitting teams in the league. He's gonna get rushed today. White Sox will win this one going away 10-6

not sure they will get this one in today.... been pouring down rain, thunder and lightening..... don't think Jose's achilles is gonna feel too good in this weather, if they do play.....

[peterpan19]

btw
give me the Yankees for the first 5 Innings in tonights game...

[peterpan19]

adding some TT for today (fun bets only)
Astros Over 4.5 (-115)
Braves over 4.5 (-108)
Blus Jays Over 5 (-105)
Mariners Over 4 (-106)

GL

[Dexter]

I hate to say it, but each and every time that he is -150 or more I am going to pound the other side. I did it blindly last year and I think I came up with 9 wins and only 1-2 losses. There aren't many pitchers worthy of a -150 price tag. Although he is a great pitcher, he is very ordinary when put up against the big number

maybe you have halladay mixed up with another pitcher - i know that i made nice cash when backing him last year (granted on mostly lines of -150 or less) but even on games where he was -150 or more of a fav, the bluejays were 7-6 on the moneyline.

Dates from 2008 where Roy was -150 or > 4/17, 5/4, 6/8, 6/14, 6/20, 6/25, 6/30, 7/29, 8/4, 8/9, 8/21, 9/5, 9/25...

[t-bone]

Think I may ride Zimmerman and the Nats First 5 @ +155.......Perez should never be giving up a generous spread like this.

Good luck

[cocknocker]

Check numbers with the +1.5 on the other side and times when he has been favored with this juice and please don't do those numbers for when he is on the road laying that kind of juice Dexter. 7-6 isn't good anyway to begin with at the -150 mark. It's .500 basically. But you've still got some homework to do. The safer route would be to take the W.Sox+1.5, but I don't think that it will be necessary this time.

I faded Halladay and got the extra juice last time out with the Rangers when he had a similar price tag. But since this one is on he road I'm going to take the runline and the moneyline for the other team. In this case it doesn't make sense to take the Pale Hose +1.5 because it has negative money attached to doing it that way (playing the +1.5 -120). I want all my Crumbs and if Halladay has a bad day. I hate negative money wagers. One win at +140 and +250 on the same game is like winning 4 games.

[cocknocker]

In hoops today i am taking the

Boston/Chicago under 204 buying 2 points
Houston-1.5 (Buying 3 points LT's Rule)

[ragiche]

My plays for today.

MLB: Yesterday 5-3-1

Sdg RL(2x) (L)

Hou ML(2x) (W)

Chc RL (W)

Min/Cle over 9 (L)

Ari PK (W)

NHL:

NyRangers ML (L)

NjDevils ML (L)

NBA: Yesterday 4-4-0

Bos +3 (Push)

Orl/Phi over 191 (L)

Orl -4.5 (L)

[peterpan19]

nba teaser of the day (2x) laying -120:
Bos +10, Cavs -1.5 and Hou +2.5

I really like that one

GL

[CUAIrish]

Hey Dex,

What site do you use to get the lines from past games?

[Dexter]

Check numbers with the +1.5 on the other side and times when he has been favored with this juice and please don't do those numbers for when he is on the road laying that kind of juice Dexter. 7-6 isn't good anyway to begin with at the -150 mark. It's .500 basically. But you've still got some homework to do. The safer route would be to take the W.Sox+1.5, but I don't think that it will be necessary this time.

I faded Halladay and got the extra juice last time out with the Rangers when he had a similar price tag. But since this one is on he road I'm going to take the runline and the moneyline for the other team. In this case it doesn't make sense to take the Pale Hose +1.5 because it has negative money attached to doing it that way (playing the +1.5 -120). I want all my Crumbs and if Halladay has a bad day. I hate negative money wagers. One win at +140 and +250 on the same game is like winning 4 games.

at +1.5 for the other side he is 5-8. not nearly as bad as you made it out to seem. i know you follow lots of pitchers with the >150 rule (which according to your earlier posts is for the moneyline - not runline) so you prob have halladay confused with someone else.

pls dont do those numbers on the road? i have no idea what your implying there.

7-6 isnt good, but its certainly not auto-fade as you claimed earlier.

[Dexter]

Hey Dex,

What site do you use to get the lines from past games?

covers

[Dexter]

the jays are 5-0 off a loss this year. just saw that...

[Jimbo42]

Booked:
Seattle +125

Oakland -110


Good Luck!

[peterpan19]

looks like the Mets are once again unable to sweep a team this year...even if its only the Nationals...

btw Owings pitching like he should today...still mad that we let him go last year...this kid has some pop too...

GL

[Dexter]

lets get that heavy dog home with the nats!

lot of us liked that one....perez at -200?!