CLE favored AGAIN tomorrow...

[jellobiafra]

I asked last night why in the world they were favored over MIN tonight. I said I locked in the reverse run line and MIN won 5-1. Well, the lines makers are smoking crack again this evening, because they have Carl Youhavegottabefvckingkiddingme Pavano as a -140 favorite over Slowey. Looks like reverse run line redux.

I also said last night that the Braves were the wrong team favored against the Reds and I stand by that even though the Braves won 4-3. If you watched the game you saw Volquez dominating until he lost the strike zone in the 4th. He walked 4 guys in a row with 2 outs, walked in two runs, one of the walk RBI was the pitcher. Unbelievable. Oh well, still a profitbale day with a reverse R/L hit....if only I'd just played those two.

I think that's what I'm going to try to do for now. Just two games a day. My favorite two at good prices. So tomorrow I like MIN + 120 (might play the reverse r/l and hedge it with the m/l).

I also can't believe my eyes when I see Zach Duke as a DOG to Shuan Hill. WTF? Again, is anybody paying attention out there in linemaker land? I gotta roll with PITT +110. Better team, BETTER pitcher.

[Vonnegut]

Man I hope the Pirates can come through tonight, good luck with your plays tomorrow.

[jellobiafra]

Thanks Vonnegut. I'm on the Bucs tonight too. Scrappy bunch.

I've been looking at the Cubs tomorrow, too. They're on a 3 game skid and the Cards are on a 4 game winner. That trend is bound to break in one game this series you would think. Now tomorrow the Cubbies are starting Sean Marshall, a decent MLB pitcher. Solid lefty with some potential. The Cards on the other hand are sending out Mitchell Boggs - a reliever who's previous attempts at starting have been remarkably bad. The Cubbies just saw him for 2 innings last week. I gotta believe they have a better than -110 shot of breaking out of this slump tomorrow. Give me the Cubs -110 vs Mitchell Boggs any day of the week. I'm buying that one as well.

[jellobiafra]

I just went and reviewed Machine Choice's Heaven's Gate money management system. It intrigued me when I first read it and it still does. I've never had the discipline to be successful at wagering. I'm going to give this a try starting tomorrow. These 3 plays are set up perfectly for the system - one at 4pm, one at 7pm, and one at 10pm. On the 1st two I will be wagering 1 unit. If I'm lucky enough to win both I will be upping the wager to 1.5 units on PIT.

Fun Fun.

The only thing I'm a little worried about is losing optimal lines with this style. Like today, if I'd waited to bet the Reds I wouldn't have gotten them as the dogs I did last night. I have a feeling either MIN or PIT could lose a little bit of line value by the time I get around to wagering those games tomorrow. I'm also not going to play the most lockworthy games on the docket. I'm not playing any favorites over -130. I might include heavier favorites in a parlay. We'll see. I'm interested to see how this goes.


1st wager:

Cubs -110 for 1 unit (1/11th of my bankroll)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The heaven's gate system, as he calls it, is nothing new to the gambling world, but it is flawed. Betting 1/11th of your bankroll to start any streak betting system is nonsense. Sure, when you pick the games correctly, it all works out. But protecting the downside, staying afloat when selections are not going well, is critical. Betting no more than 2 to 3 percent of your bankroll will serve you better in the end, taking this from the Kelly principle.

[jellobiafra]

Well, in reality I'm not betting 1/11th of my entire bankroll. I'm betting 1/11th of the money I'm holding in my account. I could bet the entire amount on this game and then reload tomorrow for that amount if I wanted. In other words, I have plenty of reserve discretionary funds that I'm willing to put towards the entertainment value I receive from sports wagering. I just don't keep it all in the sportsbook account at once. 1/11th of what I have in there now is not even 2-3% of my available bankroll. That's why I'm looking at this more as an experiment and willing to play less than absolute "locks" as I see them.

I do appreciate you taking the time to express a concern though. Thanks.

[Slanina]

I will be rooting against you today. As I am an Indians fan and will be at this game tonight. However, Pavano does really suck ass, so if they lose I won't be disappointed or suprised.