I would like to post a pick

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  • Mudcat
    Restricted User
    • 07-21-05
    • 9287

    #1
    I would like to post a pick
    One of my plays today is not system-based; it is based strictly on, hmmm, that sounds about right. So I figger let's see what the fuss is all about and post it on a public forum.

    Toronto Blue Jays -200 @ Matchbook (which is actually -201.8)

    Halladay versus McCarthy




    Now am I supposed to post an explanation? I seldom bet chalk but there is a kind of chalk betting I have had success with in MLB over the years. It involves dominant pitchers. I made very good money betting on Maddux during his Cy Young years despite the fact he was usually -250 or something. Similar effect with Randy Johnson and Pedro at times. Always worth keeping an eye on if you could get them in the low -200's. It is something I have always done very, very selectively. You don't want to try to force pitchers into the definition of dominant.

    Santana has had his profitable stretches. And so has Halladay.

    Judgement call of course. But I think if you take this match-up of the Blue Jays - who are 5-2 at home - behind Halladay - who is looking well settled-in - against the Rangers - who are 0-3 on the road, the Blue Jays should win more than 67% of the time which is the break-even point dictated by the odds.

    I believe that is all I have to say. I mean besides Go Jays.

    May god have mercy on your soul.
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