Ok boys...I want to start a little bit of a challenge for myself so Ive decided to open up this thread. My weekly challenge will run Tuesday through the following Tuesday. My goal each week will be to accumulate a profit of 10 units ($1000). Each day I will post my leans and open up the thread for discussions. I will then submit my plays throughout each day and evening. I hope to profit 1.43 units each day to get to that thousand. If I see a strong play, I will denote that play CHIC PLAY and will probably be wagering more like 3-5 units on that play. Ill be back in an hour or so with my leans and plays. BRING THE BOYS TO THIS FORUM!
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Leans for the first night of my weekly challenge:
Mets/Cardinals Over total 9.5
The Mets have been terribly inconsistent and the Cardinals haven’t played since Saturday thanks to Sunday night’s rainout in Chicago. Both teams will be batty tonight, which is why I like the high number in this game. .
Perez was embarrassed in his first start of the season at Cincinnati, as he was tagged for eight runs, five hits and five walks in 4-1/3 innings. Though he looked solid his next time out, Tony La Russa will have his troops fully knowledgeable of the scouting report on Perez and what to look for. New York has lost five of Perez’s last six outings against the N.L. Central and four of his last five starts against the Redbirds. As for Wellemeyer, St. Louis is just 3-6 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the hill, and have also lost nine of his last 13 outings at home - including four straight as a home underdog.
We have the edge inside the numbers, as the over is 9-1-2 in Perez’s last 12 starts and 4-0-1 in his last five when the team’s ordering room service, while the high number is 5-0-1 the last six meetings between these squads and 4-0-1 in the last five clashes that have taken place at Busch Stadium.
San Diego Padres ML -125
Some people wanted to right off San Diego Padres pitcher Jake Peavy before the regular season started. He’s made no secret of his desire to play elsewhere and he pretty much stunk it up in the World Baseball Classic.
But, so far this season Peavy has once again delivered a Peavy-like performance.
He’s 2-1 this season with a 3.98 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings of work. Tonight against NL West rival San Francisco, the Padres will get over once again behind the arm of Peavy.
Over his last 12 starts on the road with the team favored between -110 and -150, San Diego is 10-2 and the team has won 8 of his last 11 road starts playing against a team with a losing record, like the Giants.
Also, for his career, in 24 starts against San Francisco, Peavy is 12-8 with a 3.30 ERA. Consider also when these two last played, in a three-game set in San Diego April 10-12, the Padres swept the Giants, with Peavy getting the Game 2 win as he struck out 10 and gave up three earned runs in 8 1/3 innings of work in the Pads’ 6-3 win.
In that series, the Padres outscored San Francisco 19-7 and held the Giants to no more than three runs in any game.
Also, San Francisco is only 2-7 its last 9 games against the NL West and only has 9 wins in its last 33 games when installed as a home underdog.
Keep in mind, too, the reputation of Giants’ scheduled starting pitcher Matt Cain. In his last 10 starts against San Diego, the Giants are 1-9 and have not won any of his last four home starts against the Pads.
Tonight, Peavy will be his dominant self and shut down the Giants.
Detroit/LAA Over total 8.5
Lots of action coming in on the side tonight, so we'll stick with the total here, playing it "safe" with the OVER. The OVER has hit in seven of the last 10 Angels games, and if you look at their home games so far this season you see totals of 9, 9, 9, 10, 10 and 3. Just once in six home games has the TOTAL gone under today's number. Anaheim scores an average of 4.3 runs per game at home and three of those games were against Boston ace pitchers. Detroit has played seven road games thus far and the totals look like this: 10, 2, 9, 8, 6, 9, and 17. Not as convincing, but still OVER our total tonight four out of those seven games. Detroit is facing Jered Weaver, who was knocked around for 10 hits and 4 ER in five innings vs. Seattle in his last outing, including two HRs. I realize Armando Gallaraga is pitching very well right now, but I'm still not convinced he can keep this offense down for 7 innings tonight. The Angels score in bunches, and all it's going to take for us tonight is a big inning or two and the OVER will cash in easily.
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ADD-- CHIC PLAY
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS ML +110
Penguins are the better team in this matchup. Flyers did take the last game, but that was because Fleury had a sub par performance after a SPECTACULAR performance the game before. I do not see him following up with the poor play again as he will be in top form. Penguins will be hungry to take this game so that they will be able to finish out the series on Thursday night in Pittsburgh. Im going to put 2.2 units on this play.
BOOKED-PENS 2.2 UNITS TO WIN 2.42 UNITS
Lets start this experiment off on the right foot!!Comment -
haha slanina...cute...well its when a player is past the blue line before his teammate crosses the blueline with the puck.
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Boys, my game is playing out just as I expected. Fleury is STELLAR tonight again. Pens leading 2-0 and getting ready to start the 3rd period.
Ill be back with some more plays in a bitComment -
Whooo hoooo...Pens win!
1-0
+2.42 unitsComment -
Next bet tonight
Padres Vs. Giants
NO run scored first inning (-150)
1.5 units to win 1 unit
Lets cash it
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Im really feeling the Lakers tonight
1st Q -3.5---1.1 units to win 1 unit
1st H -6.5---2.2 units to win 2 unitsComment -
matt cain fu#$%^ suxComment -
small parlay
1 h--Lakers -6.5 and under total 103.5--.72 units to win 1.87 unitsComment -
I know bobby..that freakin pissed me off! I should know better than to lay big juice on a bet like that..It just looked too good to pass upComment -
1-1
+.92 units of profit
Stupid Matt Cain gives up a run in the first inning..ickyComment -
i booked that play early today, i felt the sameComment -
Next time I see a play like that, that looks too good to be true, Im going the other wayComment -
YESS..Lakers looking great...cashed first quarter..now lets get that first half!
2-1
+1.92 unitsComment -
Lakers get it done in the first half..a bit more scoring than I thought though...Lose the parlay, but cash the 1st half spread...
3-2
+2.92 unitsComment -
CHIC PLAY---
Utah Jazz +3 second half--3.3 units to win 3 unitsComment -
Last play--parlay
2nd half...Utah Jazz +3, Over total 108
1.1 units to win 2.86 unitsComment -
Utah covers 2nd half and I miss hitting my parlay by a basket..stayed under the total by 2 points..Ended up with a really good night...
Im more than halfway to my week goal already.
4-3
+5.92 unitsComment -
Good job Chic. Stay away from the parlays for your competition if you want to meet your goal. Your assessment of the games were great, but you cost yourself 1.82 units on parlays. I think you will have a much better chance of reaching your goal if you can stay disciplined in your approach. Unsolicited advice I know, but want to see you succeed..anyways congrats on big night for you.Comment -
hey mcbaseball..thank you so much for the praise and constructive criticism. I do take to heart advice from knowledgable cappers such as yourself. I do need to stay away from the parlays, but I always get suckered into betting them. Looking forward to a good day tomorrow...NO PARLAYS!
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Recap of Yesterday's Plays
Pittsburgh Penguins ML --WON 2.42 UNITS
Padres No run first inning--LOST 1.5 UNITS
Lakers 1q -3.5--WON 1 UNIT
Lakers 1h -6.5--WON 2 UNITS
Parlay Lakers/Under 1h---LOST .72 UNITS
Jazz +3 2nd half---WON 3 UNITS
Parlay Utah 2h/Over--LOST 1.1 UNITS
4-3
+5.92 UNITS OF PROFITComment -
Be back in a bit with some early playsComment -
1st play---good value in this play...
Pittsburgh Pirates RL -1.5 (+200)--risking 1 unit to win 2 units
Maholm is in different form this year. Pirates bats are popping, especially Laroche's and Sanchez's. I think the Marlins on the opposite end, are cooling off and starting to come back down to reality. I am looking for the Bucs to get a good start in this game scoring 2-3 runs pretty early, by the 5th inning or so, and I think that Maholm will keep the Marlins in checkComment -
2nd play---
Oakland A's over total 3.5 runs in the game (-115)--risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Sabathia does not have good statistics against the A's as he only won one game against them last year and posted a 6.62 ERA against them. The A's have a much more potent offense this year and I believe that Sabathia's walks that have gotten him in to jams his other starts this season, could end up hurting him in this game as well. I also believe the Yankee bullpen can give up a few runs as they have been awful this yearComment -
3rd play--CHIC PLAY
Oakland A's ML (+210)--risking 2 unit to win 4.10 units
I dont like Sabathia's stats against the A's and I do like the A's offense. I also see that the 75% of the public is on the Yankees and the line has gone down. Anytime I see this happen, I go with the dawg.Comment -
Decided to put more money on A's--Line dropped again so I threw another unit on on itComment -
I'm trying hard to bet the A's, and they are my hometown team, and Brett Anderson is a very talented pitcher...I'm just still terrified to do it haha.
Here's my other picks for today, what do you think?
Padres -131
Royals +170
White Sox -115Comment -
FWIW, I bet on Maholm & the Bucs today.Comment -
Hey tbill..just put something small on it...very good value in this play. Line movement is too wierd. Love the Royals play btw.
Boy Jennyus...good pick with the Buccos..I really believe they get the sweet today! GL boys
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Adding another play on the A's game--
First 5 innings Oakland A's ML (+200)--1 unit to win 2 unitsComment -
Here are my plays so far grouped together --
Pirates RL -1.5---risking 1 unit to win 2 units
Oakland A's over total 3.5 runs scored--risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Oakland A's ML --risking 2 units to win 4.10 units
Oakland A's first 5 innings ML--risking 1 unit to win 2 units
LETS HAVE SOME LUCK ON THE BASE PADS TODAY BOYS!!Comment
