MLB - Friday, 10/2/15

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Friday

Nationals / Mets UNDER 6.5 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 518-485-26, +81.95

[44 Mag]

Do the LAD meet the 60% criteria??? They still need to try to achieve home field.

[Sherfire]

Marlins -1 1/2 +135
Royals/Twins under 7 1/2

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 70% (-233)
Cubs 68% (-213)
Dodgers 66% (-194)

Pirates magic number over the Cubs for clinching #1 wild card and home field for Wild Card Playoff is 1

Dodgers will definitely face Mets in NLDS, but teams are tied in battle for home field. Tie at end of the season goes to the Mets.

[44 Mag]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 70% (-233)
Cubs 68% (-213)
Dodgers 66% (-194)

Pirates magic number over the Cubs for clinching #1 wild card and home field for Wild Card Playoff is 1

Dodgers will definitely face Mets in NLDS, but teams are tied in battle for home field. Tie at end of the season goes to the Mets.

Thanks Boss.

[PorkChop]

No Angels at plus money LT?

[dirtycash66]

Going real big on the pirates ML

[LT Profits]

Going real big on the pirates ML

No value there, they are higher than -233.

[dirtycash66]

Ok, I'll pass on it

[CubsFan1908]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 70% (-233)
Cubs 68% (-213)
Dodgers 66% (-194)

Pirates magic number over the Cubs for clinching #1 wild card and home field for Wild Card Playoff is 1

Dodgers will definitely face Mets in NLDS, but teams are tied in battle for home field. Tie at end of the season goes to the Mets.

magic number is actually 2 not 1. Pirates are up 2 with 3 to play. And Cubs own tiebreaker if they tie.

[LT Profits]

magic number is actually 2 not 1. Pirates are up 2 with 3 to play. And Cubs own tiebreaker if they tie.

Sorry, I thought lead was three games. You are correct, it is two games and magic number of 2.

[jjgold]

under play looks solid

tailing

[RavensFan2k3]

No value there, they are higher than -233.

Yeah but is it a winner?

[Matty Mo]

Pirates RL (Liriano very good vs Reds, Sampson very bad vs Pirates, and Buccos at home, looking to lock down home field)

Cubs RL (Arrieta vying for Cy Young and last start before playoff game) This is my favorite play as long as Cubs have their normal lineup in

[LT Profits]

Yeah but is it a winner?

We look at things differently.

Do they have the best chance for this ONE game? Of course, model has them at 70%.

But if the model is accurate, the Pirates are -EV long term at higher than -233 as they are still expected to lose 30% of the time.

[LT Profits]

No Angels at plus money LT?

I added them.

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Additions

4 MLB Plays Friday

Nationals / Mets UNDER 6.5 +100 (Heritage)
Red Sox +113 (Heritage)
Braves +117 (Heritage)
Angels +115 (Bookmaker)

[Matty Mo]

Angels should be a great bet today. Wonder if Rangers will sit starters? Doubtful since they want the division, but even better if they do.

[RollinDo]

We look at things differently.

Do they have the best chance for this ONE game? Of course, model has them at 70%.

But if the model is accurate, the Pirates are -EV long term at higher than -233 as they are still expected to lose 30% of the time.

I will even do a Pirates chase if they lose today. I got the ML at -235, so will go all in tomorrow if they happen to lose tonight, which I just can't see unless Liriano gives up 4 or 5.

[funnyb25]

Ok, I'll pass on it

lol...how do u go from going REAL big to nothing...

[RollinDo]

lol...how do u go from going REAL big to nothing...

At least it gave me a good laugh...I would think going from real big to normal bet would make sense, but why abandon the play altogether that you planned to go all in?

[eddycash]

That's called Respect for da man (LT)

[LT Profits]

Mets rained out, now down to three plays.

[intermission]

All east coast games probably gonna get cancelled lol damn you joaquin

[PorkChop]

No Angels at plus money LT?

Chicken dinner

[mth61]

All east coast games probably gonna get cancelled lol damn you joaquin

Racist... Solid call on Braves and Angels. Had value on the same plays but added Angels with you and Weaver looked un2015WeaverEsque lol