MLB - Wednesday, 9/23/15

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 06:57 AM

60%ers:

Washington 67% (-203)
Toronto 64% (-178)
Mets 63% (-170)
Cubs 68% (-213)
Kansas City 63% (-170)
St. Louis 65% (-186)
Dodgers 67% (-203)

theorudy · 09-23-15, 07:51 AM

Awesome night last night. Best of luck today.

mth61 · 09-23-15, 08:05 AM

Here goes LT again... throwing darts....

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by mth61

Here goes LT again... throwing darts....

No...

eddycash · 09-23-15, 09:43 AM

Angels under 8.5 ok?

Lakers714 · 09-23-15, 10:06 AM

Lol, I was just gonna ask the same thing.

Mike Huntertz · 09-23-15, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No...

I gotta try that, lol

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by eddycash

Angels under 8.5 ok?

Only if no worse than -105

mcgeezer1883 · 09-23-15, 10:31 AM

I'm with you on LAA/HOU under

Have an opinion on the total for the early DET/CWS game? Last two were under big time and Verlander is pitching.

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by mcgeezer1883

I'm with you on LAA/HOU under

Have an opinion on the total for the early DET/CWS game? Last two were under big time and Verlander is pitching.

No, none, model is at exactly 8.0

mikefan1034 · 09-23-15, 10:52 AM

The dart chucker back at it

Lakers714 · 09-23-15, 11:00 AM

LT, I'm just curious what the model has for the total in the Angels/Stros game.

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

LT, I'm just curious what the model has for the total in the Angels/Stros game.

7.8

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 11:23 AM

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Angels / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Braves +198 (Heritage)
Athletics +113 (Heritage)
Giants / Padres UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)

Lakers714 · 09-23-15, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

7.8

Thx. Wanted some daytime action and I was just curious on the confidence level.

LtDarsh · 09-23-15, 11:40 AM

tailing the under in the astros game with you for 2x my usual amount

jjgold · 09-23-15, 11:46 AM

Angels a good play

jealousy hurts

LT burying everyone handicapping bases ...you guys are so pathetic and losers

Rich Boy · 09-23-15, 11:58 AM

Crushed it again last night LT, thanks for the plays brother.

You must have thick skin dealing with all the morons on this site... No worries you got more supporters im sure

jjgold · 09-23-15, 12:12 PM

LT is the greatest baseball handicap I've ever seen

aortega521 · 09-23-15, 12:59 PM

On the under in the Stros game!!! Let's go LT

LtDarsh · 09-23-15, 01:25 PM

loaded bases in top of the 1st, yikes

mcgeezer1883 · 09-23-15, 01:31 PM

Not a good start thus far...2 runs in top of 1st

champ21 · 09-23-15, 02:02 PM

Good call on last nights games!!!

eddycash · 09-23-15, 02:37 PM

I couldn't get the under 9 so I'm a little worried with my line

funnyb25 · 09-23-15, 02:49 PM

what do the 60%'ers mean? i notice the mets are in there but you have braves..

RavensFan2k3 · 09-23-15, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

what do the 60%'ers mean? i notice the mets are in there but you have braves..

That's the percentage chance he gives them or f winning

funnyb25 · 09-23-15, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

That's the percentage chance he gives them or f winning

i guess the question is...what makes the braves a play if the mets are a 60%er? new to this system is all...i dont mean any harm

High3rEl3m3nt · 09-23-15, 02:54 PM

60%'ers are his models prediction of winning chances. You would not want to bet -200 on a fav that had a 60% chance of winning, you'd want to bet the value in the dog.

Here's my thing: LT, don't you feel that your model would be more accurate for the first five innings because once the bullpens get involved, it introduces so many unknown variables and intangibles that the model can't predict. Have you looked to model for the first five?

High3rEl3m3nt · 09-23-15, 02:58 PM

funny, check out sbr's handicapping tools in the handicapping forum. there's a converter that will show you the implied outcomes.

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

60%'ers are his models prediction of winning chances. You would not want to bet -200 on a fav that had a 60% chance of winning, you'd want to bet the value in the dog.

Here's my thing: LT, don't you feel that your model would be more accurate for the first five innings because once the bullpens get involved, it introduces so many unknown variables and intangibles that the model can't predict. Have you looked to model for the first five?

Model includes bullpens and has factors for expected innings pitched by starters and relievers.

LT Profits · 09-23-15, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

what do the 60%'ers mean? i notice the mets are in there but you have braves..

Note that the Mets 63% converts to a money line of -170. Thus I felt the Braves had value at +198.

High3rEl3m3nt · 09-23-15, 03:04 PM

I am sure that it does, but you have to admit that when you start getting into bullpens, which vary according to any number of game situations and season situations, there is heaps more variance.

rc86 · 09-23-15, 04:23 PM

Fukkin a...penetrating joke of a game laa/hou...

High3rEl3m3nt · 09-23-15, 05:07 PM

Both bps worn thin.