End of the year Chase system

[CubsFan1908]

Going to give this a whirl to end the year. This will be a 3 game chase system. If I lose the 3rd game (C bet) that chase is over.

Most likely will only have 1-2 chases going on at a time.

8/23:

A Bet: Rangers (1.34 units to win 1)
A Bet: Cubs (2.15 units to win 1)


For all my plays the listed pitchers must start unless otherwise stated.
I will probably never play -1.5 run line but I will play some +1.5 run lines.


Also if you are going to be doing a chase system of any kind be really conservative with your bankroll. For this I'm having 1 unit= 0.5% of my bankroll.


Also this is my first post on SBR so be gentle

[recon1]

Welcome friend. I'd probably take the Braves today.

Good-luck

[CubsFan1908]

Thanks for the welcoming.

It's always nice starting off strong.

8/23 Results:
A Bet: Rangers WIN
A Bet: CubsWIN


YTD Results:
2-0 +2 units. (0 chases still left in play)

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/24:
A Bet: Mets (2.03 units to win 1 unit)

I'd like to wait longer before making this play, but I have other activities that come before this. I do like this game for the chase, however I still would've liked to waited in case there were lineup changes.

Also which wasn't mentioned in the OP and I'll edit after this post the listed pitchers must start, obviously.

[CubsFan1908]

8/24 Results:
A Bet: Mets WIN

YTD Results:
3-0 +3 units (0 chases still in play)

[recon1]

Looking good cubs fan . I decided to grind it out with the Braves again today. Eventually finally happened today.

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/25:
A Bet: Mets (2.18 units to win 1)
A Bet: Cubs (1.38 units to win 1)

Going with the Mets again. Syndergaard has struggled on the road, but I think he has a good outing today. Plus the fact I believe the Mets offense won't have any trouble getting runs.

Also on the Cubs. As my name suggests I am a Cubs fan even though this is my 4th day on the chase system and I've picked the Cubs twice I'm a pessimistic fan. I just think bad things are going to happen. However they have been the best team in baseball this last month and I see no reason that doesn't continue especially with Arrieta on the mound. I did want to play the Alt Run line but at -325 I didn't feel it was worth it.

[CubsFan1908]

Adding a 3rd play for 8/25
A Bet: Royals (1.36 units to win 1)

Also as a note if say I were to lose all 3 games today I may only like 0,1 or 2 games the following day. I won't use the same game for different chases. Because at that point I might as well be playing 1 unit for 1% of my BR instead of 0.5. So some chases might take longer to complete than others. An "A bet" could lose on say Tuesday and I might not make the "B bet" for that chase untill Thursday.


So overall for 8/25:
A Bet: Mets (2.18 units to win 1)
A Bet: Cubs (1.38 units to win 1)
A Bet: Royals (1.36 units to win 1)

[CubsFan1908]

8/25 Results:
A Bet: Mets WIN
A Bet: Cubs WIN
A Bet: Royals WIN

YTD Results:
6-0 +6 units (0 chases still in play)

Haven't lost an A bet yet. Good start

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/26:
A Bet: Blue Jays (1.74 units to win 1 unit)
A Bet: White Sox (2 units to win 1 unit)

[CubsFan1908]

8/26 Results:
A Bet: Blue Jays WIN
A Bet: White Sox LOSS

YTD Results:
7-0 +7 units (1 chase still left in play)

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/27:
B Bet: Giants (4.74 units to win 3)
A Bet: Pirates (2 units to win 1)

[CubsFan1908]

8/27 Results:
B Bet: Giants WIN
A Bet: Pirates WIN

YTD Results:
9-0 +9 Units (0 chases left in play)

[CubsFan1908]

Two possibly three plays coming later tonight. I'm busy right now and want to look at them again before making a play

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/28:
A Bet: Nationals (2.64 units to win 1)
A Bet: Pirates (2.49 units to win 1)

Believe it or not I think both teams are actually undervalued and should both be around the -300 range. Also for anyone going through my chases so far I don't just throw darts on which favorite I believe will win. True, I will 99.9% of the time be picking a favorite (that statement is only true for chase systems) but I try to find favorites that I think are undervalued. Because if I just only pick favorites and they are all overvalued I will eventually crash and burn.

Now this isn't to say I will come ahead or that the teams I'm picking are always undervalued (I might be wrong when I think a team is undervalued when they are actually overvalued)

This is why you aren't also seeing me be on the Dodgers and Yankees tonight because in my opinion they are overvalued and even though both likely to win tonight not worth it at there price.

[CubsFan1908]

8/28 Results:
A Bet: Nationals LOSS
A Bet: Pirates WIN

YTD Results:
10-0 +10 Units (1 chase still left in play)

[bob6199]

Nats are a team to fade, they aren't good and should not be priced -200 tomorrow. Joke

[CubsFan1908]

Yeah, doesn't look like I'll be on them tomorrow. Got some other games I'm looking at.

[recon1]

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/29:
B Bet: Pirates (8.77 units to win 3.64 units)
A Bet: Blue Jays (2.19 units to win 1 unit)

2nd B Bet. Hopefully ends like the first one

[CubsFan1908]

8/29 Results:
B Bet: Pirates WIN
A Bet: Blue Jays WIN

YTD Results:
12-0 +12 units (0 chases still left in play)

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/30:
A Bet: Blue Jays (2.11 units to win 1)
A Bet: Pirates (2.18 units to win 1)

Gonna keep riding the hot teams with big advantages again.

[CubsFan1908]

8/30 Results:
A Bet: Blue Jays WIN
A Bet: Pirates LOSS

YTD Results:
13-0 +13 units (1 chase still left in play)

[CubsFan1908]

Plays for 8/31:
B Bet: Blue Jays (6.49 units to win 3.18 units)

[BankrollMafia]

can you explain your YTD result? how is it 13-0 if you lose 1 of the wager?

8/30 Results:
A Bet: Blue Jays WIN
A Bet: Pirates LOSS

YTD Results:
13-0 +13 units (1 chase still left in play)

[JassieJames]

Because a loss is if he loses three particular picks in a row.

[CubsFan1908]

can you explain your YTD result? how is it 13-0 if you lose 1 of the wager?

Because a loss is if he loses three particular picks in a row.

What James said.

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[CubsFan1908]

1st C Bet

Plays for 9/1:
C Bet: Pirates (14.52 units to win 9.67 units)
A Bet: Royals (1.55 units to win 1)

[BankrollMafia]

thanks for clarification -- gluck today.

[CubsFan1908]

Update:
Went to Chicago for the weekend and went to a Cubs game. Still going to see this through. Rough start to the holiday losing a C bet but it happens.

YTD Results:
13-1 (-10.19 units) (1 chase still left in play)


Glad I'm only using a small portion of my MLB bankroll, but I still think I can make this profitable.


Plays for 9/7:
B Bet: Cardinals (3.57 units to win 2.55 units)
A Bet: Yankees (1.43 units to win 1)



Gonna try to keep this thread going through close to the end of the year, but NFL is my main priority for betting so that takes first priority.

[BankrollMafia]

but NFL is my main priority for betting so that takes first priority.

Football!!! Im so excited for week 1 - might be a little too excited, trying to work on a 6-8 team parlay.
How's your capping for NFL.

Im with you on Cardinals, 2units.

[CubsFan1908]

This will be my 4th full year of NFL. All 3 years I've come out ahead. My 1st year of NFL I went on a really big heater and won 11 straight wagers. The last 2 both made profit like I said, but nothing big. Hopefully another profitable year this season


Also, I advise don't do a parlay, but that's just me. If you do just put a little bit on it just for fun.

[BankrollMafia]

This will be my 4th full year of NFL. All 3 years I've come out ahead. My 1st year of NFL I went on a really big heater and won 11 straight wagers. The last 2 both made profit like I said, but nothing big. Hopefully another profitable year this season


Also, I advise don't do a parlay, but that's just me. If you do just put a little bit on it just for fun.

Yeah my parlay plays are usually very small just for shits and giggles. it just feels extra exciting when you hit a parlay. You have a thread up for NFL?

[CubsFan1908]

Yeah I put it up today actually

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3139869-cubsfan-season-long-nfl-thread.html

[BankrollMafia]

Cmon Cards, whats going on here!