My base picks

[mth61]

Alright just wanted to start this for some official tracking outside of my spreadsheet...
Been hot and cold so could be fade or follow material...

Risking unit mark +win on dogs and moneyline on favs. (example dogs+130: 1unit to win 1.3units)(favs-130: 1.3 units to win 1)


8/18/2015
1u plays
Marlins +143
Mariners -133
Reds +113
Rays +107
Red Sox -115
Mets -107

0.5u plays
Mets/O's over 7.5 -103
Nats/Rocks under 11 -143
Tigers +153
Phillies +172

[mth61]

If anyone has any thoughts let me know

[44 Mag]

If anyone has any thoughts let me know

If you only like "dogs", which I generally don't, SF looks like a decent play. Lance Lynn got pounded last time out and has lost all 3 against SF. BOL brother. SF + 128.

[mth61]

If you only like "dogs", which I generally don't, SF looks like a decent play. Lance Lynn got pounded last time out and has lost all 3 against SF. BOL brother. SF + 128.

I like winners and value lol. I ll take an extra look at SF, thanks!

[mth61]

Seems like all my lines have moved away from me

[leetreaper]

Looking good brother!

[mth61]

Looking good brother!

Thanks brother, I am bumping my tigs play up to a full unit but it lost some value

8/18

Added half unit on...

Tigers 0.5/0.7

[mth61]

Marlins +143 W +1.43
Mariners -133 W +1
Reds +113 L -1
Rays +107 L -1
Red Sox -115 W +1
Mets -107 W +1

0.5u plays
Mets/O's over 7.5 -103 W +0.5
Nats/Rocks under 11 -143 L -0.71
Tigers +153 W +0.76
Phillies +172 L -0.5

Added in Post #7:
Tigers 0.5/0.7 W +0.5

7-4 +2.98

[mth61]

Although it was profitable, if I would taken the suggested bUnit approach it would of been 13 units.... Ill post both tmrw

[mth61]

working on a few things this morning...

But a few system plays before capping:

0.6u on MIN +155
1u on TEX -118
0.4u on MIA +131
1.5u on SD -157
0.2u on PIT -140
1.6u on STL -160
1.8u on CLE -143
0.5u on HOU -181
3.0u on NYM +112
0.4u on PHI +188
0.7u on CIN +105
1.7u on CHC -220

[mth61]

So system will have its plays but I am going with

1U
Texas -118
NY Mets +112

0.5u
Miami +131
CIN +105

This is it for now, might adjust later... No totals yet

[mth61]

Theres a Noah Syn trend I don't like.... and Minnesota looks like a possible play

[mth61]

Theres a Noah Syn trend I don't like.... and Minnesota looks like a possible play

Noah Syn trend would've cashed, should've bet opposite way...

[mth61]

0.6u on MIN +155 L -0.6
1u on TEX -118 W +0.4
0.4u on MIA +131 L -0.4
1.5u on SD -157 W +1.5
0.2u on PIT -140 W +0.2
1.6u on STL -160 W +1.6
1.8u on CLE -143 L -2.8
0.5u on HOU -181 W +0.5
3.0u on NYM +112 L -3
0.4u on PHI +188 W +0.7
0.7u on CIN +105 L -0.7
1.7u on CHC -220 L -3.7

System Day: 6-6 -5.01

[mth61]

8/18 Plays

1U
Texas -118 W +1
NY Mets +112 L -1

0.5u
Miami +131 L -0.5
CIN +105 L -0.5

8/19: 1-3 -1u
YTD: 8-7 +1.98

[mth61]

System Plays:

0.6u on Pirates -120 0.0u on Dbacks -122 0.9u on Marlins -137 1.3u on Cubs -245 5.4u on Nats -182 1.7u on Indians +156 1.3u on Rangers +104 0.3u on O's -149 2u on Red Sox +108 1.7u on Rays -101 Risking alot on chalk with Cubs and Nats...yikes!

[mth61]

YTD: 8-7 +1.98

8/20 Plays

Nats -183 to win 2u
Red Sox risk 1u at +108
Yankees -147 to win 1u
O's -149 to win 0.5u
Tigers TT ov4.5 risking 0.5u at +105

[mth61]

8/20 Plays

Nats -183 to win 2u L -3.66
Red Sox risk 1u at +108 W 1.08
Yankees -147 to win 1u L -1.47
O's -149 to win 0.5u L -0.75
Tigers TT ov4.5 risking 0.5u at +105 L -0.5

Rough day as Yankees and Nats fail to show up till the 9th and both fall short. O's get pummeled and Tigers get me by the hook.

YTD: 9-10 -3.22

[mth61]

I had posted the system plays wrong and I wanted to also track online the second system which is a flat 1 unit bet

	System Results				System 1	System 2
Date	bUnit	Play	Odds	Result	Risk Sys	Flat Sys
8/18/2015	0.4	NYM	104	Win	0.41	1
8/18/2015	2.8	MIA	143	Win	4	1
8/18/2015	3.5	CIN	113	Loss	-3.5	-0.88
8/18/2015	0.6	TB	107	Loss	-0.6	-0.93
8/18/2015	1.9	WAS	-145	Win	1.31	1
8/18/2015	1.7	BOS	-115	Win	1.48	1
8/18/2015	1	NYY	-161	Win	0.62	1
8/18/2015	3.9	SEA	-133	Win	2.93	1
8/18/2015	3.6	LAA	-168	Win	2.14	1
8/18/2015	1.4	PHI	166	Loss	-1.4	0.6
8/18/2015	1	DET	158	Win	1.58	1
8/18/2015	21.80			8W 3L	8.97	6.79
YTD				8W 3L	8.97	6.79
8/19/2015	0.6	MIN	155	Loss	-0.6	-0.64
8/19/2015	1	TEX	-118	Win	0.85	1
8/19/2015	0.4	MIA	131	Loss	-0.4	-1
8/19/2015	1.5	SD	-157	Win	0.95	1
8/19/2015	0.2	PIT	-140	Win	0.14	1
8/19/2015	1.6	STL	-160	Win	1	1
8/19/2015	1.8	CLE	-143	Loss	-1.8	-1.43
8/19/2015	0.5	HOU	-181	Win	-0.5	1
8/19/2015	3	NYM	112	Loss	-3	-0.89
8/19/2015	0.4	PHI	188	Win	0.75	1
8/19/2015	0.7	CIN	105	Loss	-0.7	-0.95
8/19/2015	1.7	CHC	-220	Loss	-1.7	-2.2
8/19/2015	13.4			6W6L	-5.01	-1.11
YTD				14W 9L	3.96	5.68
8/20/2015	0.5	PIT	-122	Win	0.41	1
8/20/2015	0	ARZ	-125	Win	0	1
8/20/2015	0.7	MIA	-144	Win	0.49	1
8/20/2015	1.3	CHC	-245	Win	0.53	1
8/20/2015	5.5	WAS	-180	Loss	-5.5	-1
8/20/2015	1.7	CLE	153	Win	2.6	1
8/20/2015	1.2	TEX	100	Loss	-1.2	-1
8/20/2015	0.2	BAL	-150	LOSS	-0.2	-1.5
8/20/2015	1.7	BOS	-106	Win	1.6	1
8/20/2015	1.2	TB	100	Win	1.2	1
8/20/2015	0.1	LAA	-125	LOSS	-0.1	-1.25
8/20/2015	14.1			7W 3L	-0.17	2.25
YTD				21W 12L	3.79	7.93

[mth61]

First the System with bUnit

Pick	Line	bUnit
ATL	+212	1.2
SFG	-139	0.9
----	----	----
ARZ	-121	2.0
MIA	-135	0.3
----	----	----
SD	+118	1.2
MIN	+159	1.2
CLE	+138	1.9
DET	-125	1.0
----	----	----
TB	-101	1.2
TOR	-138	2.2
CHW	+112	1.1
LAD	+110	1.0

My card today all to win 1u based off of flat betting systems picks
ATL +212
SFG -139
ARZ -121
MIA -135
SD +118
MIN +159
CLE +138
DET -125
TB -101
TOR -138
CHW +112
LAD +110

[mth61]

8/21/2015 Picks

First the System with bUnit

Pick	Line	bUnit
ATL	+212	1.2 L -1.2
SFG	-139	0.9 W +0.65
----	----	----
ARZ	-121	2.0 W +1.65
MIA	-135	0.3 L -0.3
----	----	----
SD	+118	1.2 W +1.02
MIN	+159	1.2 W +1.98
CLE	+138	1.9 W +2.62
DET	-125	1.0 L -1
----	----	----
TB	-101	1.2 W +1.19
TOR	-138	2.2 W +1.59
CHW	+112	1.1 W +1.23
LAD	+110	1.0 L -1

System plays with bUnit goes 8-4 +8.43, nice profitable day!

My card today all to win 1u based off of flat betting the systems picks
ATL +212
SFG -139
ARZ -121
MIA -135
SD +118
MIN +159
CLE +138
DET -125
TB -101
TOR -138
CHW +112
LAD +110

Than I used the same card with flat betting going 8-4 +4.02!

8/21:
System Plays: 8-4
bUnit: +8.43
Flat: +4.02


Overall:
System plays 29-16
bUnit +12.22
Flat +11.95


Now the bUnit system is a little higher but through limited testing I definitely have enjoyed the stability of the flat betting system. Posting todays plays shortly.

[mth61]

YTD: 29-16
bUnit System: +12.22
Flat System: +11.95

Plays today

Pick	Line	bUnit
PIT	-175	0.3
ATL	+208	1.8
WAS	-157	0.2
ARZ	+109	2.1
MIA	-135	0.3
NYM	-113	0.8
----	----	----
CLE	+124	2.4
DET	+106	2.0
MIN	+152	2.2
BOS	+131	1.7
OAK	-105	3.0
TOR	-105	2.0
CWS	+103	0.7
LAD	-125	0.5

Obviously like previously stated I play them all to win 1u on flat betting but I also track the bUnit.. LETS GOOOO

[jz833]

Cle +159?!!

[mth61]

fixing, apoligies

[mth61]

I play these all at line opening and do not play off of deceiving line movement. I will play these plays no matter where the lines go. Only thing that could change them would be a major lineup change or obviously a pitching change

[mth61]

YTD: 29-16
bUnit System: +12.22
Flat System: +11.95

Plays today

Pick	Line	bUnit
PIT	-175	0.3 W +0.17
ATL	+208	1.8 L -1.8
WAS	-157	0.2 W +.12
ARZ	+109	2.1 W +2.29
MIA	-135	0.3 L -0.3
NYM	-113	0.8 W +0.71
----	----	----
CLE	+124	2.4 L -2.4
DET	+106	2.0 L -2.0
MIN	+152	2.2 W +3.4
BOS	+131	1.7 L -1.7
OAK	-105	3.0 L -3.0
TOR	-105	2.0 W +1.90
CWS	+103	0.7 W +0.72
LAD	-125	0.5 L -0.5

Obviously like previously stated I play them all to win 1u on flat betting but I also track the bUnit.. LETS GOOOO

Go .500 and get a few cents from the books


8/22: 7-7
bUnit System: -2.39
Flat System: +0.36


YTD: 36-23
bUnit System: +9.83
Flat System: +12.31

[mth61]

YTD: 36-23
bUnit System: +9.83
Flat System: +12.31

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
ARZ	CIN	Anderson, C	Iglesias, R	----	----	----
PHI	MIA	Nola, A	Conley, A (L)	MIA	-116	0.9
SFG	PIT	Vogelsong, R	Liriano, F (L)	PIT	-170	1.9
MIL	WAS	Garza, M	Zimmermann, J	WAS	-155	1.1
ATL	CHC	Wisler, M	Hammel, J	----	----	----
STL	SD	Wacha, M	Rea, C	STL	-136	0.1
NYM	COL	Verrett, L	Hale, D	NYM	-122	2.9
TEX	DET	Hamels, C (L)	Boyd, M (L)	----	----	----
KC	BOS	Volquez, E	Rodriguez, E (L)	BOS	-105	0.8
MIN	BAL	Pelfrey, M	Gausman, K	BAL	-161	1.1
TOR	LAA	Dickey, RA	Richards, G	LAA	-109	2.5
TB	OAK	Odorizzi, J	Gravemen, K	----	----	----
CWS	SEA	Danks, J (L)	Walker, T	SEA	-155	1.3
CLE	NYY	Bauer, T	Sebathia, CC (L)	----	----	----
LAD	HOU	Kershaw, C (L)	McCullers, L	LAD	-174	2.9

As always, I bet listed plays at a flat to win 1u but I track the bUnits as well

[mth61]

YTD: 36-23
bUnit System: +9.83
Flat System: +12.31

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
ARZ	CIN	Anderson, C	Iglesias, R	----	----	----
PHI	MIA	Nola, A	Conley, A (L)	MIA	-116	0.9 Loss -0.9
SFG	PIT	Vogelsong, R	Liriano, F (L)	PIT	-170	1.9 Win +1.11
MIL	WAS	Garza, M	Zimmermann, J	WAS	-155	1.1 Win +0.71
ATL	CHC	Wisler, M	Hammel, J	----	----	----
STL	SD	Wacha, M	Rea, C	STL	-136	0.1 Win +0.07
NYM	COL	Verrett, L	Hale, D	NYM	-122	2.9 Win +2.38
TEX	DET	Hamels, C (L)	Boyd, M (L)	----	----	----
KC	BOS	Volquez, E	Rodriguez, E (L)	BOS	-105	0.8 Loss -0.8
MIN	BAL	Pelfrey, M	Gausman, K	BAL	-161	1.1 Loss -1.1
TOR	LAA	Dickey, RA	Richards, G	LAA	-109	2.5 Loss -2.5
TB	OAK	Odorizzi, J	Gravemen, K	----	----	----
CWS	SEA	Danks, J (L)	Walker, T	SEA	-155	1.3 Win +0.84
CLE	NYY	Bauer, T	Sebathia, CC (L)	----	----	----
LAD	HOU	Kershaw, C (L)	McCullers, L	LAD	-174	2.9 Loss -2.9

As always, I bet listed plays at a flat to win 1u but I track the bUnits as well

In what should of been a 8-2 day for +5.75 units turned into a 5-5 day -1.65 units courtesy of three blown saves with two outs courtesy of the O's, Red Sawx, and Dodgers.... un effin real...



8/23: 5-5
bUnit System: -3.09
Flat System: -1.65


YTD: 41-28
bUnit System: +6.74
Flat System: +10.66

[mth61]

YTD: 41-28
bUnit System: +6.74
Flat System: +10.66

8/24 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	deGrom, J	Morgan, A (L)	NYM	-202	3.7
COL	ATL	De La Rosa, J (L)	Teheran, J	----	----	----
PIT	MIA	Happ, J (L)	Koehler, T	----	----	----
STL	ARZ	Lynn, L	Ray, R (L)	STL	-108	1.1
HOU	NYY	Feldman, S	Eovaldi, N	HOU	+135	0.4
BAL	KC	Jimenez, U	Medlen, K	KC	-131	0.8
BOS	CHW	Kelly, J	Samardzija, J	BOS	+122	0.4
OAK	SEA	Doubront, F (L)	Iwakuma, H	SEA	-169	0.6
DET	CIN	Farmer, B	Sampson, K	DET	+115	1.6
CLE	CHC	Kluber, C	Lester, J (L)	CLE	+125	1.0

[mth61]

YTD: 41-28
bUnit System: +6.74
Flat System: +10.66

8/24 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	deGrom, J	Morgan, A (L)	NYM	-202	3.7 W +1.83
COL	ATL	De La Rosa, J (L)	Teheran, J	----	----	----
PIT	MIA	Happ, J (L)	Koehler, T	----	----	----
STL	ARZ	Lynn, L	Ray, R (L)	STL	-108	1.1 W +1.02
HOU	NYY	Feldman, S	Eovaldi, N	HOU	+135	0.4 L -0.4
BAL	KC	Jimenez, U	Medlen, K	KC	-131	0.8 W +0.61
BOS	CHW	Kelly, J	Samardzija, J	BOS	+122	0.4 W +0.49
OAK	SEA	Doubront, F (L)	Iwakuma, H	SEA	-169	0.6 L -0.6
DET	CIN	Farmer, B	Sampson, K	DET	+115	1.6 L -1.6
CLE	CHC	Kluber, C	Lester, J (L)	CLE	+125	1.0 L -1

8/24: 4-4
bUnit System: +0.35
Flat System: -0.1


YTD: 45-32
bUnit System: +7.09
Flat System: +10.56

[mth61]

YTD: 45-32
bUnit System: +7.09
Flat System: +10.56

8/25 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	N Syndergaard	J Williams	NYM	-206	0.5
SD	WAS	J Shields	S Strasburg	WAS	-158	1.0
PIT	MIA	C Morton	B Hand (L)	PIT	-146	1.3
COL	ATL	C Bettis	M Foltynewicz	ATL	-103	0.1
LAD	CIN	A Wood (L)	J Lamb (L)	CIN	+135	0.9
CHC	SFG	J Arrieta	M Cain	CHC	-138	1.9
HOU	NYY	D Keuchel (L)	I Nova	HOU	-122	2.0
LAA	DET	J Weaver	A Simon	DET	+106	0.3
MIN	TB	E Santana	N Karns	MIN	+149	0.5
TOR	TEX	M Buehrle (L)	D Holland (L)	TEX	+127	2.5
BOS	CHW	W Miley (L)	J Quintana (L)	CHW	-118	1.1
BAL	KC	M Gonzalez	D Duffy (L)	KC	-135	2.7
OAK	SEA	J Chavez	M Montgomery (L)	OAK	+117	1.7
MIL	CLE	W Peralta	J Tomlin	MIL	+149	0.6
STL	ARZ	J Garcia (L)	R Ray (L)	STL	-115	2.0

[mth61]

YTD: 45-32
bUnit System: +7.09
Flat System: +10.56

8/25 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	N Syndergaard	J Williams	NYM	-206	0.5 W +0.24
SD	WAS	J Shields	S Strasburg	WAS	-158	1.0 W+0.63
PIT	MIA	C Morton	B Hand (L)	PIT	-146	1.3 L -1.3
COL	ATL	C Bettis	M Foltynewicz	ATL	-103	0.1 L -0.1
LAD	CIN	A Wood (L)	J Lamb (L)	CIN	+135	0.9 L-1.35
CHC	SFG	J Arrieta	M Cain	CHC	-138	1.9 W +1.38
HOU	NYY	D Keuchel (L)	I Nova	HOU	-122	2.0 W +1.64
LAA	DET	J Weaver	A Simon	DET	+106	0.3 L -0.3
MIN	TB	E Santana	N Karns	MIN	+149	0.5 W+0.74
TOR	TEX	M Buehrle (L)	D Holland (L)	TEX	+127	2.5 L -2.5
BOS	CHW	W Miley (L)	J Quintana (L)	CHW	-118	1.1 W+0.93
BAL	KC	M Gonzalez	D Duffy (L)	KC	-135	2.7 W +2
OAK	SEA	J Chavez	M Montgomery (L)	OAK	+117	1.7 L -1.7
MIL	CLE	W Peralta	J Tomlin	MIL	+149	0.6 L -0.6
STL	ARZ	J Garcia (L)	R Ray (L)	STL	-115	2.0 W +1.74

8/24: 8-7
bUnit System: +1.45
Flat System: +1.52


YTD: 53W-39L
bUnit System: +8.54
Flat System: +12.08

[mth61]

YTD: 53W-39L
bUnit System: +8.54
Flat System: +12.08

8/26 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	B Colon	J Eickhoff	PHI	+153	1.2
PIT	MIA	J Locke (L)	C Narveson (L)	MIA	+149	1.6
LAD	CIN	B Anderson (L)	D Holmberg (L)	LAD	-173	2.1
COL	ATL	Y Flande (L)	S Miller	----	----	----
STL	ARZ	J Lackey	P Corbin (L)	----	----	----
CHC	SFG	K Hendricks	J Peavy	SFG	-112	0.2
HOU	NYY	C McHugh	M Pineda	NYY	-127	1.6
OAK	SEA	C Bassitt	F Hernandez	SEA	-159	3.0
LAA	DET	H Santiago (L)	J Verlander	----	----	----
MIN	TB	T Duffey	C Archer	TB	-192	0.9
TOR	TEX	D Price (L)	C Lewis	TOR	-175	2.0
BOS	CHW	R Porcello	C Sale (L)	CHW	-177	1.7
BAL	KC	W Chen (L)	J Cueto	----	----	----
SD	WAS	No pick yet
MIL	CLE	No pick yet

[mth61]

YTD: 53W-39L
bUnit System: +8.54
Flat System: +12.08

8/26 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
NYM	PHI	B Colon	J Eickhoff	PHI	+153	1.2 L -1.2
PIT	MIA	J Locke (L)	C Narveson (L)	MIA	+149	1.6 L -1.6
LAD	CIN	B Anderson (L)	D Holmberg (L)	LAD	-173	2.1 W +1.21
COL	ATL	Y Flande (L)	S Miller	----	----	----
STL	ARZ	J Lackey	P Corbin (L)	----	----	----
CHC	SFG	K Hendricks	J Peavy	SFG	-112	0.2 W +0.18
HOU	NYY	C McHugh	M Pineda	NYY	-127	1.6 L -1.6
OAK	SEA	C Bassitt	F Hernandez	SEA	-159	3.0 W +1.89
LAA	DET	H Santiago (L)	J Verlander	----	----	----
MIN	TB	T Duffey	C Archer	TB	-192	0.9 L -0.9
TOR	TEX	D Price (L)	C Lewis	TOR	-175	2.0 W +1.14
BOS	CHW	R Porcello	C Sale (L)	CHW	-177	1.7 L -1.7
BAL	KC	W Chen (L)	J Cueto	----	----	----
SD	WAS	No pick yet
MIL	CLE	No pick yet

Rough day on the bases as a couple big faves go down in Sale and Sawx. Same goes for Archer and the Rays.

8/26: 4-5
bUnit System: -2.58
Flat System: -2.28


YTD: 57-44
bUnit System: +5.96
Flat System: +9.8

[mth61]

YTD: 57W-44L
bUnit System: +5.96
Flat System: +9.8

8/27 Card. All to win 1u

Away	Home	aPitcher	hPitcher	Pick	Line	bUnit
LAD	CIN	Z Grieke	A DeSclafani	LAD	-186	0.5
CHC	SFG	D Haren	M Bumgarner (L)	SFG	-178	2.5
NYM	PHI	J Niese (L)	A Harang	----	----	----
SD	WAS	A Cashner	J Ross	SD	+157	1.5
PIT	MIA	G Cole	J Nicolino (L)	PIT	-178	1.1
STL	ARZ	C Martinez	R De La Rosa	ARZ	+123	1.7
TOR	TEX	M Estrada	Y Gallardo	TEX	+140	2.3
BAL	KC	C Tillman	Y Venture	KC	-139	1.4
MIN	TB	T Milone (L)	D Smyly (L)	----	----	----
LAA	DET	M Shoemaker	R Wolf (L)	DET	+100	0.2
SEA	CHW	R Elias (L)	C Rodon (L)	CHW	-135	0.4