Tuesday at the park

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 09:43 AM

White Sox @ Detroit

The first thing you have to look at in this game is the weather.

Weather: It is raining off and on now and it looks like there is a better chance for rain as the day goes on. The wind is blowing across the field from third to first at or around 10-14 mph. History would dictate this would call for an over type of game but this park is a hitter's park. Bottom line is if you play this game you can expect some delay's and maybe ppd.

Umpire: Hickox is behind the plate for today's game. He has just umpired one game this year but hear are is numbers for the home team and the total over the last three years.

Home team:30-33 (Home Dogs: 7-15)
Over / Under: 34/26

A lean to the over and the home teams are about .500 but that number favors home favorites not underdogs. The current line is Detroit +123 and over that time period home pups from 111-130 are 3-9.

In his last ten games he worked with the White Sox they are 6-4, and the under is 6-4. In the last ten games he worked with the Tigers they are 7-3 and the over is 5-2-3.

That's it for umpire and weather info--will look into it more and post more info.

JT

Sneaks

Smith · 04-14-09, 10:06 AM

Great info man. Ive been looking into this game big time. I really like the Sox here, but i like your info on the umpires stats.

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 10:13 AM

News from both teams--

Detroit:

THAMES IN LEFT: Leftfielder Carlos Guillen, who exited Sunday's game with soreness in his right Achilles tendon, served as the DH Monday. If Guillen is the DH again today, then Marcus Thames will play left, manager Jim Leyland said. Thames figures to be in the lineup no matter what, with lefty John Danks starting for Chicago.

White Sox:

The South Side won't have Dewayne Wise to kick around anymore. At least not for another six to eight weeks after the White Sox center fielder separated his right shoulder while making what manager Ozzie Guillen described as ''a game-saving catch'' in a 10-6 victory over the Detroit Tigers on Monday at Comerica Park.

''He's gone,'' Guillen said after his team's third consecutive win. ''A few months, six weeks maybe.
''He started swinging the bat pretty good, he started to play better. It's a shame, but things happen. I feel sorry for the kid, but you've got a job to do. You've got to move on.''

According to Guillen, unless general manager Ken Williams pulls a rabbit out of his hat and goes outside the organization for a center fielder, Brian Anderson will get the majority of the playing time there, with Owens called up from Class AAA Charlotte to be the fourth outfielder.

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 10:53 AM

Smith,

Glad it could help I always felt the umpire could change the way a game worked out, more than most officials in other sports so I like to take a close look at them.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Does anyone know much about
Rick Porcello?

Led the Florida State League with a 2.66 ERA as he made his professional debut with Single A Lakeland in 2008...selected Lakeland's Pitcher of the Year...Selected to both the Florida State League's mid- and post-season all-star squads...Tied for second among all league starters with a .244 batting average against, while he finished fifth with 11.52 baserunners per nine innings...Topped all league pitchers with 55 total chances and 34 assists, while he tied for the lead with 17 putouts...Finished 13th in the Florida State League with a 2.37 ERA (30.1IP/8ER) in six starts during April...Earned Florida State League Pitcher of the Week honors for May 5-11 after winning both of his starts and allowing two unearned runs in 11.0 innings of work during the week...Compiled a 2-1 record and 2.60 ERA (27.2IP/8ER) in five starts during May -- 11th in the league with a 2.60 ERA during the month...Posted a five-game winning streak over a 10-start stretch June 27-August 27...Finished 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA (20.0IP/4ER) in four starts during August...Limited lefthanded batters to a .230 batting average (44x191)...righties hit .253 (72x285) against Porcello...Named the top prospect in the Tigers organization and Florida State League following the season by Baseball America...rated as possessing the best curveball and changeup in the Tigers organization by the publication.

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 11:48 AM

Detroit +120

That's my play for the afternoon game!! GLTA!

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 11:50 AM

Lineups For today:

Chi White Sox AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg B. Lillibridge 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .100
J. Fields 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .318
C. Quentin lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333
J. Thome dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .217
J. Dye rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .370
P. Konerko 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .346
A.J. Pierzynski c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .182
A. Ramirez ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .160
B. Anderson cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Detroit AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg C. Granderson cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .206
P. Polanco 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333
M. Ordonez rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .276
M. Cabrera 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .467
C. Guillen dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200
M. Thames lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .273
G. Laird c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .318
B. Inge 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .269
A. Everett ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .238
Totals

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 01:53 PM

Okay with the afternoon game postponed it's time to look at the slate for tonight.

Seattle PK

This is a 6:40 start so set your watched but when was the last time you got a team on a four game winning streak at dog money? Well in order to buy into this you would have to believe that Seattle is improved and its not because they just played Minny and Oakland. Well these games were on the road and coming home with boy hero in tow and a good start to the season will get the fans into it. The Angels just took two of three from the Sox and send Loux to the mound today. Here is some background on him--A second-round pick of Detroit in 1997, Loux made his major league debut in 2002, pitching 14 innings -- and going 0-3 -- for a team that lost 106 games. He appeared in just 11 more games for the Tigers and by 2007 he was out of baseball, having failed in a tryout with the independent Atlantic League. Now here this I am not sold on Silva ever and I made some money going against him in my years but look at how the bullpens have fared. The Angels have an ERA over 7 and a WHIP over 2! Consider Loux is a young buck he won't go nine which means Seattle will have a whack at the pen. When it comes to hitting the M's have the edge too. This is enough for me to back the M's in this game.

more to come....

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 02:02 PM

Trends--Trends--Trends

Do you use them? Do they help?

In fact I am going to go on a tirade when I speak about the next set of games because I am going to introduce trends--okay we all know about them and some of us love them (me) and others hate them. In my humble opinion not all trends are useful and you can find a trend for any side of any game but the trick is finding one that is useful and makes sense. For instance is you find the Yankees are 0-12 on Thursday's then I would say that is useless....but if you were also to point out that on every Thursday it was a getaway game for the Yanks then you might be on to something...any way enough of my babbling let's get to the games already.....

Florida / Atlanta Over 9 -110

This is rare for me because I usually don't take totals without knowing the umpire but that won't be announced to later and I am ready to pull this trigger now. Both teams are hitting the ball well early (thanks to Washington) and the wind is blowing out tonight. The starting pitchers are less than stellar and the pens give up some runs. Here come your trends: Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter--Over is 11-3 in Braves last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Still looking at some other games..

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 02:27 PM

NYY/TB

Passing on this one but if I had to I would come right back with TB--a team hitting this well deserves a look in back to back games.

Reds +120
I took them last night and I will take them again. This is more of a play against Milwaukee then for the reds. The Brewers are not making it work in key situations and that is killing them until that changes I will fade away. Both starters struggled out the gate but Parra struggled against the Giants?!?! Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter and struggle to help Parra. The comeback last night and playing well on the road has inspired this team. "I think it's a sign of things to come here," said Bruce of the comeback. "That's been kind of the trend this season so far. We haven't given up at all. It just goes to show that no matter how much we're losing by, we can chip away and get right back in the game."

Baltimore +140
This is a play on the red hot O's as dogs against a Rangers team that has lost four straight. I do believe baseball is about streaks and the rangers are on a losing one. To me this is a value play. Simon has been roughed up and McCarthy has pitched well in his career against the O's but let's face it this one comes down to the pens and with even (and ugly) pens--I will take the hotter hitting team. Rangers are 1-7 in McCarthys last 8 starts vs. American League East.

Two more for me tonight coming up!

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 02:41 PM

Jays +105

How can you not back the jays here? They are hitting .323 this year and they have hit lefties well in the past. Getting them as dogs is a shot I am willing to take. Romero pitched well in his first start and with bat support he should be fine against the Twins. The jays also have a slight edge in the pen and have owned Minny at home. Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Drake is behind the plate and he is not afraid to back a roadie. Road team is 4-1 in Drakes last 5 games behind home plate.

Oakland +125

Betting against the Sox has been a money maker all year and like my play on the Reds this is more of a play against the Sox then for the A's. The sox will need a perfect performance by Dice -K to get the win because the bats are sleeping. They are just hitting .204 this year and the A's are hitting .289. Boston's bullpen is in trouble yielding an ERA over 6 while the A's are strong in relief as always with a minute WHIP and ERA. Dice-K only went 5 in his first outing and he gave up 3 longballs! He has had a good history against the A's and will need it again to have a shot at a W tonight. Athletics are 4-0 in Evelands last 4 home starts and you know Nomar wants to beat the Sox as evident by his homer last night. I will take a shot on this club tonight.

That's it for my plays all comments, suggestions are welcomed and if anyone has questions on these games or ones I did not cover let me know. I will be happy to help investigate to get us all winners, it's all about being a team and beating the man!!

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 03:52 PM

Well instead of passing on the rest of the night I am back with another one...

Tampa Bay -115

What I am hearing tex will not play again but this is not official, but I like my sources. TB hit the cover of the ball and it seems like everyone on the club is hitting right now.They are hitting almost 50 points better than the yanks. AJ pitched well in his first start but has given up 14 earned in his last four against the rays. Garza pitched well against the Sox his first time out and you can tell the Rays have this entire series circled. Gooch is behind the plate and he likes home teams. Home team is 14-2 in Gucciones last 16 games behind home plate vs. Tampa Bay.

I like the Braves to beat the fish too but I am not ready to pull that trigger just yet....

JT Sneaks

jtsneaks · 04-14-09, 05:07 PM

Last add of the night: BRAVES -155--TWO UNITS and
Braves -1.5 +140 for one unit...GLTA

tonight's lineups are coming out....here is Sea/LAA if anyone wants it, got it from yahoo...

LA Angels AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg C. Figgins 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .263
H. Kendrick 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .296
B. Abreu lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .292
V. Guerrero dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .292
T. Hunter cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .222
K. Morales 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .304
M. Napoli c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .444
G. Matthews Jr. rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167
E. Aybar ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .083
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Seattle AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg E. Chavez rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .379
R. Cedeno lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .143
K. Griffey Jr. dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .133
A. Beltre 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .269
R. Branyan 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .286
Lopez 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .238
Johjima c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167
Gutierrez cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .185
Betancourt ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .364

JT

Sneaks