Ck's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Monday 4/13/09

[cocknocker]

Ah yes today I lke the

Volquez is not a +125 ptcher and Gallardo is certainly not a -145 pitcher. I will take the better pitcher at the phenominal price. The Brewers are good, but if Volquez pitches anything like he did last year, the Brew-Crew won't stand a chance over the 1st half of this game while he is stll on the bump. And since I know that the Brewers bullpen stinks the reds will always be in the game if they aren't down by more than 2 runs in the later innings.

Reds +125



The D-Rays will pound the Yanks into submission. The Yanks don't play too many games indoors and that will have a n effect on them especially when facing Kazmir who is a dominant pitcher to begin with. I'll take the home chalk in this one.

D-Rays-130

Now with the Nats finally playing at home, I have to take a stab at them to get the job done in the familiar confines of their own stadium. Jamie Moyer is a good but old pitcher who does have good command of the strike zone but weak velocity. I expect a slgfest in this one as Cabrera is known for giving up the long ball. The fact that the Nats have been knocking on the door of victory is key in this matchup. I expect a solid effort by them today. Playing them at even money makes it a very enjoyable wager.

Nats+100

Nothing heavy today, all of these are fun bets for me. I took the Houston Rockets -7.5 HEAVY today, and that will be all that I need to be way ahead in the event that these wagers get pissed on.

Added Play:



Carjacking Jimbo42 and alukk for their pick...I actually kind of like it alot and don't see how I missed the movement! Well constructed wager guys. Let's get em. I'm gonna put a little extra cheddar on this one

Wahoos+103

[shoebox]

with you on the reds brother, against you on the yanks

Kaz was not as strong against the yanks last season as he was in years past

[G's pks]

Good luck on the nationals... I never try to guess the end of a losing streak...but often ride winning streaks... Hopefully you hit though... G.

[BlackMan]

Gallardo is better than Edison Volquez.

[peterpan19]

todays card, all games booked and fully loaded for today...at least for baseball...
early games:
csw +113 (I think we could see a nice pitching matchup here today... going with the dog in this one as I trust CWS a bit more here)
pit -1 +108 (hou is shit this year so far and Pit playing some great ball... plus the Duke is finally back to his rookie season form as I believe)
cubs -1 +128 (home opener for the Cubs...I love it... they want to win this one...)

if the early games go well I will add the Yankees, they are 3-2 SU in TB as of late, also when do you get the Yankees at +145 again ?... but hell Kazmir is good against the Yankees, 3 ER in his last 29 Innings pitched against them (17 Innings last year and 2 ER) !!! so tough call, but I cant take the fav in this one at -153 right now...

late games:
tor +110 (red hot out of the gate, plus Slowley never won a start against Tor, Litsch won the last 3 vs Min allowing 3 ER in 21 2/3 Innings of work...)
mil -1 +108 (this game will be close and I take the better Offense in this one)
bos -1 -118 (lester will rebound)

GL

[solobass]

aww peterpan i just booked tigers +160 RL, their bats have been hot and defensively they have a huge edge. other plays

rockies +120
blue jays +105
and more to come.

[solobass]

tigers to score first +125, white sox offense has almost half total bases as the tigers, and BA, R, etc all favors detroit. miner was sharp his last time out as well.

[peterpan19]

solo
sorry for your loss with the first score...

looks like we are both on the Blue Jays today... I dont like the Rockies here today, just too much on the line for the Cubs...

GL

[solobass]

yeah miner is the man.....b2b homers with no outs. oh well, props are just fun money. my heaviest play today is the jays too, let's cash that mother!

[peterpan19]

and the bases are loaded....

and here goes my money.... ok not yet, but it could get ugly for Floyd...

[solobass]

it is early, and i expect more runs in this game. if it was warmer i would have taken the over, but alas i did not.

[peterpan19]

it might really come down to who has the better Offense...didnt expect that at all... I thought we would see more of a pitching matchup... oh well...

GL...thinking about making Toronto a big play for me today...not quiet sure yet...but it looks tempting...

[solobass]

ha, looks like you got me the white sox are killing it.

[repski]

Ah yes today I lke the

Volquez is not a +125 ptcher and Gallardo is certainly not a -145 pitcher. I will take the better pitcher at the phenominal price. The Brewers are good, but if Volquez pitches anything like he did last year, the Brew-Crew won't stand a chance over the 1st half of this game while he is stll on the bump. And since I know that the Brewers bullpen stinks the reds will always be in the game if they aren't down by more than 2 runs in the later innings.

Reds +125




.

CK,
Doesn't this go against your normal thought process?? Why would the books be giving you Volquez @ +125....no free chicken dinner...
The don't want you on the Brew Crew and Gallardo..

my play today is the Cubbies and Lilly....-120

[RoagBettor]

I'm not betting baseball heavily until next month when things start to take shape.

Small parlay for today ($25 to win $385.68):

Reds
Giants
Padres

[wangichu]

early plays today:

Floyd owns the tigers

CHW ML

Nats are too easy to fade here Phillies off a sweep, nats are hungry for the W and while cabrera can be really bad, he is sporadically dominant and still has the stuff to show up like that, while moyer can't do much more than lob up 82 mph gopher balls, while the nats have capable hitters who can make him pay for that. Even if both pitchers are bad, i still like the nats at home to get their first W

WAS ML

UBALDO!!!! (plus rocks just dropped a pair at home and chicago is coming off two big road victories over the brewers that could have gotten away)

COL ML

[peterpan19]

looks like we have a rain delay in chicago...

[suicidekings]

SF @ LA (-180), UNDER 8 (-130): Parlay (+189)
- Billingsley will handle the Giants nicely, I believe, and neither team is hitting well so far this year. Because of the big (-180) I think this is a nice spot for a parlay instead of a straight bet.

SD (+175) @ NYM, OVER 9 (-125): Parlay (+395) small
- Silva didn't pitch badly in his debut, and Pelfrey will likely fare better than he did vs CIN, however I see a short day for both of these guys with neither team running away with it, and once into the bullpens SD has the edge.

NYY @ TB (-155), UNDER 9 (-125): Parlay (+197) small
- Kazmir dominated the Yankees last year and typically pitches much better at home. Wang pitched 2 great games against Tampa last year and desperately wants to put his last start behind him.

BAL (+105) @ TEX
- I'll take Uehara as a dog any day. I think he'll keep the Rangers offence in check. On the other side, Padilla is a fly ball pitcher in one of the best hitters parks in the league and I expect him to get lit up badly.

[repski]

SF @ LA (-180), UNDER 8 (-130): Parlay (+189)
- Billingsley will handle the Giants nicely, I believe, and neither team is hitting well so far this year. Because of the big (-180) I think this is a nice spot for a parlay instead of a straight bet.

I've been doing VERY well with this type of wager going 5 innings and laying -1/2....for -135

Especially this time of year when SP's aren't pitching complete games and your only gonna get them for 6 anyway.....fwiw

[CUAIrish]

I agree that Gallardo is the better pitcher there by only a small margin but cinci i think gets the edge on the field, backing CK on that play.

I also like Nats at home with Cabrera. The nats are due for a win despite being piss poor and this might be their best shot to date. I like the line movement in our favor on that.

I do also like TB over NY but my book has it at -150 so im off that play.

My last play is LA 1H heading home with Billingsley on the mound. I also like the under in this game.

Booked:
Nats +103
Cinci +130
LAD 1H -.5 -125

[million2one]

Be careful going against the Phillies.

Long time announcer, Harry Kalas just passed out in the booth and died on the way to the hospital.
Dont know how this will affect the team.

RIP Harry the K

[SoonerGreg]

I'm on the Phillies and will keep fading the Nats until they win one. Hopefully they start off 0-21.

[cocknocker]

Cabrera is pitching grapefruits today. Every time they get close, he gives the Phillies scoring opportunities!

[cocknocker]

However that was a great double play ball he threw to get out of the 1st and 3rd with one out t keep things close in the 2nd. Now I can exhale while the Nats are batting. Damn Cabrera sucks

[melincrea]

Ah yes today I lke the

Volquez is not a +125 ptcher and Gallardo is certainly not a -145 pitcher. I will take the better pitcher at the phenominal price. The Brewers are good, but if Volquez pitches anything like he did last year, the Brew-Crew won't stand a chance over the 1st half of this game while he is stll on the bump. And since I know that the Brewers bullpen stinks the reds will always be in the game if they aren't down by more than 2 runs in the later innings.

Reds +125



The D-Rays will pound the Yanks into submission. The Yanks don't play too many games indoors and that will have a n effect on them especially when facing Kazmir who is a dominant pitcher to begin with. I'll take the home chalk in this one.

D-Rays-130

Now with the Nats finally playing at home, I have to take a stab at them to get the job done in the familiar confines of their own stadium. Jamie Moyer is a good but old pitcher who does have good command of the strike zone but weak velocity. I expect a slgfest in this one as Cabrera is known for giving up the long ball. The fact that the Nats have been knocking on the door of victory is key in this matchup. I expect a solid effort by them today. Playing them at even money makes it a very enjoyable wager.

Nats+100

Nothing heavy today, all of these are fun bets for me. I took the Houston Rockets -7.5 HEAVY today, and that will be all that I need to be way ahead in the event that these wagers get pissed on.

Are these first half bets or game bets? Or, both?

[wangichu]

adding a parlay of TB and LAD. don't like the big juice necessary to play those two MLs, but like them enough independantly to tie em together and get some extra money if they both hit.

PARLAY: LAD ML + TB ML = $$$

also kinda thinking that the d-backs start this series off on the right foot after dropping consecutive home series to division rivals rockies and dodgers. good public money on the cards, but wellemeyer looked rough last time out and i can't see a career reliever shredding it again early this season like he did early last season, while i could see davis bouncing back as he's always been kind of an every other type guy. D-backs really need this one with webb on the DL and haren getting beaten largely thanks to a blunder by his 2 bagger.

ARI ML

also trying one more thing.
Baltimore bats have been on fire to start the season and texas has been pretty good themselves. Add to all that the fact that the ballpark at arlington is a veritable launching pad, i have to get some over money, but here's the deal. I'm not always on with specifics on O/Us, (though i hit my only O/U play of the year on the under yesterday at ARI) so i'm just going to start out here with an over play and will chase it until it hits and then lay off it until i see another series worth trying it. I kinda think this game might go under with baltimore's new pitcher being decent and padilla probably won't cough up as much as i always think he will, but i could easily see it happening here, and if not now, neither staff is strong enough to keep it from happening in one of the next two. Chase project starts here.

TEX/BAL Ov 10.5

[wangichu]

However that was a great double play ball he threw to get out of the 1st and 3rd with one out t keep things close in the 2nd. Now I can exhale while the Nats are batting. Damn Cabrera sucks

u know he'd be fine if his 2B hadn't muffed 2 plays in consecutive innings. I'd actually say he's pitching pretty decent compared to how badly he's capable of being

[The_Kid]

Dunn led off with a double in the bottom of the 3rd and he didn't score.

[alukk]

Monday Leans:
Cleveland.
Yankes halfunit
AND of course my lovely mets at home

[peterpan19]

and the White Sox cash the ticket
and the Pirates too

now lets go Cubs

GL everybody

[Jimbo42]

What up!
I know Grienke is hot but I got to back the Indians after they broke that losing streak...
Booked:
Cleveland +103

[cocknocker]

Carjacking Jimbo42 and alukk in broad daylight...


Wahoos+103

[wangichu]

Duuuukkes!!

[cocknocker]

I have no problem with tailing guys if they have a valid reason behind their plays. But I will always give credit to the author. Yesterday's PC play was in Dexters' hands the previous night, but he stayed true and let the author announce the pick. And that ladies and gentlemen is what is called integrity. There were a lot of guys who already were on it before the pick was announced. So salute to those who had a bead on the game, I saw that CS11787 (I think that's the correct number) and a few others where spot on that play. Good work gentlemen. When I tail I give credit to the author.

[cocknocker]

Washington's gonna get it done, and we will have our crumbs, wang