Dexter vs Shoebox (1 Month Challenge)

Dexter · 04-26-09, 09:17 AM

dont know where suicidekings or joana are, but your results the last few days are:

fri: -.5 units
sat: +8.75 units

double check pls..

shoebox · 04-26-09, 10:34 AM

plays for Sunday

cubs-125 5 units
cubs/birds under 8.5 -105 5 units
phi/FLA over 10.5 +100 5 units
pitt/SD over 7.5 -110 5 units
tigers -1.5 +100 5 units love this play

shoebox · 04-26-09, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

dont know where suicidekings or joana are, but your results the last few days are:

fri: -.5 units
sat: +8.75 units

double check pls..

correct

Just checked last page were both on cubs, tigers

Love the tigers today..

suicidekings · 04-26-09, 12:56 PM

Hey, sorry guys. I've barely been home / at the computer this week at all. I have all the results from the past few days and will post a bigger update after games are over today.

Dexter · 04-26-09, 02:37 PM

thx suicide! you can get the winner if you'd like next month for all your hard work.

Dexter · 04-26-09, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

plays for Sunday

cubs-125 5 units
cubs/birds under 8.5 -105 5 units
phi/FLA over 10.5 +100 5 units
pitt/SD over 7.5 -110 5 units
tigers -1.5 +100 5 units love this play

rodney did us in...

Dexter · 04-26-09, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Sunday:

nationals +165 (1 unit)
cubs -125 (2 units)
over astros 9.5/-120 (1 unit)
bluejays -1.5/-105 (2 units)
tigers -1.5/+100 (2 units)

Sunday: -1.65 units

Cumulative: -1.95 units

shoebox · 04-26-09, 05:47 PM

sucks today should of been a good day

Dexter · 04-26-09, 06:28 PM

Monday-

dodgers -140 (2 units)
yankees -150 (2 units)
whitesox -1.5/+100 (2 units)

suicidekings · 04-26-09, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

thx suicide! you can get the winner if you'd like next month for all your hard work.

Sweet. Sounds good to me.

Sunday, April 26

Dexter: 2-3 (-1.65u)
Shoebox: 3-2 (+4.75u)

YTD:

Dexter
W-L-P: 20-20-1
# Bets Placed: 41
Total Units Bet: 74
Avg Units per Bet: 1.80u
Avg. Odds Played: -110
Net Units: -1.95u
Z-Score: -0.158
P(Z): 56.3%

Shoebox
W-L-P: ~~22-31-1~~ 23-30-1
# Bets Placed: 54
Total Units Bet: 217
Avg Units per Bet: 4.02u
Avg. Odds Played: +103
Net Units: ~~-33.90u~~ -23.15u
Z-Score: ~~-1.08~~ -0.738
P(Z): ~~86.0%~~ 77.0%

suicidekings · 04-26-09, 08:54 PM

The DET & TOR runlines were frustrating today...

About halfway through now, with tons of time left to break the books. Good luck guys.

Dexter · 04-26-09, 09:10 PM

awesome info, but whats zscore and p(z)?

Dexter · 04-26-09, 09:13 PM

i think shoes cumulative is off...he was down 36.15 coming into the weekend, and had a few winning days.

shoe - you keeping track of your own?

shoebox · 04-26-09, 09:20 PM

No I have not

Dexter · 04-26-09, 09:23 PM

well, i would double check as it seems off.....

suicidekings · 04-26-09, 09:32 PM

Because I have all the data in excel, and this kind of stats follow a normal distribution, we can show how you guys are performing relative to an average bettor playing at similar stakes and odds. The Z-Score shows where you stand on the normal curve relative to the average in standard deviations. Assuming a 95% confidence interval (fairly standard), both of you fall within the normal range based on the amounts you're betting. The P(Z) is the % of bettors that would have similar or better results playing at similar odds/stakes.

So Shoe's performance, falling within the normal range implies his practice has been fine, but he's been unlucky, while your smaller Z score implies you've been playing a tighter game and had better luck. This is also reflected in the average bet size for each of you and the average odds your bets have been played at (added above).

shoebox · 04-26-09, 09:41 PM

good stuff suicide I have lost some close ones this challenge......are you sure about my record????

thanks for the extra info

suicidekings · 04-26-09, 09:45 PM

You're right. I shortchanged Shoe on the CHC/STL O9.5 yesterday. The correction has been made.

Dexter · 04-26-09, 09:57 PM

damn - taking me back to my grad school days! good stuff...

shoebox · 04-26-09, 11:39 PM

mondays plays

dodgers -140 5 units
dodgers/giants over 8.5 +100 5 units
Indians -120 5 units
astros -110 5 units

Dexter · 04-27-09, 08:47 PM

tue 4/28-

reds -130 (2 units)
dodgers -1.5/-105 (3 units)
yankees -125 (1 unit)
rangers -1.5/+140 (1 unit)
twins -120 (1 unit)

shoebox · 04-28-09, 12:41 AM

tue

Indians +100 5 units
yanks -125 5 units
philly -200 5 units
oakland +125 5 units

Dexter · 04-28-09, 05:56 PM

Monday: -5.8 units

Cumulative: -7.75

Dexter · 04-28-09, 05:57 PM

shocked your not on harang with me...

shoebox · 04-28-09, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Monday: -5.8 units

Cumulative: -7.75

im gonna catch you today, I like my card........

shoebox · 04-28-09, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

shocked your not on harang with me...

He was lights out last time, no play for me + hes favored

GL Ill root for ya

Dexter · 04-28-09, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

He was lights out last time, no play for me + hes favored

GL Ill root for ya

damn - should have knew after you didnt play him.

suicidekings · 04-28-09, 08:15 PM

Monday, April 27:

Dexter: 0-2-1 (-5.8u)
Shoebox: 2-2-0 (-3u)

YTD:

Dexter: 20-22-2 (-7.75u)
Shoe: 25-32-1 (-26.15u)

Dexter · 04-28-09, 09:34 PM

wed 4/29-

under mets 7.5/-115 (3 units)
redsox -135 (3 units)
cards +105 (1 unit)

cocknocker · 04-28-09, 10:37 PM

Where's the Crumb love?

shoebox · 04-28-09, 10:37 PM

nv

cocknocker · 04-28-09, 10:40 PM

There's the crumb love! I knew it was coming!

shoebox · 04-28-09, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

There's the crumb love! I knew it was coming!

hell yes holmes

shoebox · 04-28-09, 10:45 PM

plays for hump day........

florida +165 5 units
oakland +115 5 units
angels +100 5 units

suicidekings · 04-29-09, 01:26 AM

Tuesday, April 28

Dexter: 3-2 (+1.4u)
Shoebox: 3-1 (+10u)

YTD:

Dexter: 23-24-2 (-6.35u)
Shoebox: 28-33-1 (-16.15u)