MLB - Sunday, 7/12/15

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Sunday

Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays / Royals OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +198 (Heritage)
Cardinals +151 (Heritage)


YTD: 315-291-16, +54.21

[aznfirebat]

I want to pull the trigger on Oakland Moneyline. LT, what do you think of Oakland today? Any value betting on Sonny Gray today?

[LT Profits]

I want to pull the trigger on Oakland Moneyline. LT, what do you think of Oakland today? Any value betting on Sonny Gray today?

I actually lean slightly to Cleveland with Kluber. Model is mostly neutral right now at Cleveland 55% (-122), but line has dropped to -118 at some spots. Not enough to bet on for me as of now but may bear watching.

[Rich Boy]

You guys are up early today!

[LT Profits]

You guys are up early today!

Always bet before 8 AM ET to get the overnight lines.

[Rich Boy]

530 AM over here

[LT Profits]

530 AM over here

So 5 Dimes and Heritage overnights are only up until 5 AM your time? Shitty.

[Rich Boy]

Only have Pinny account, they dont have any different juice lines. Always wonder how you get such good lines almost always better than current Pinny numbers

[eddycash]

Phillies at +180 too low?

[LT Profits]

Phillies at +180 too low?

Decent, maybe bet 4/5 of normal unit? I get SF 63% (-170). I would personally want +185 bare minimum for regular play.

[BlueJaysNation]

any value on Quintana at +147?

[BeanTownClown88]

Always bet before 8 AM ET to get the overnight lines.

LT is that more important than seeing the lineups? Nothing like making a play and then realizing some of the top producers are getting rest

[R.P. McMurphy]

Thinking same as Jays fan on Quintana LT any thoughts? I know it's for a sweep but Sox have dominated this series lately and their dominant pitching recently vs Cubs poor hitting not a good recipe for North side. Bol today!

I also consider how great Arrieta has been. However I do factor in "familiarity" with him being an AL guy much of his career and Sox did get him last time.

[Russinat]

LT, I've silently used your model for years. Big thank you and glad you've had nice comeback after a couple rough years. Notice you often have a daily selection with Pirate opponents. You shared some cool stats recently on results vs ML, O/U etc. Do you have anything to show results by team and especially when you pick against? I would find that extremely interesting.

[Big Bear]

You guys are up early today!

[BlueJaysNation]

nevermind. Jose Abreu is not playing......oh and btw, Cardinals are at +160 on 5 Dimes

[LT Profits]

LT is that more important than seeing the lineups? Nothing like making a play and then realizing some of the top producers are getting rest

That's a chance I am willing to take. Notice that more often than not I have gotten the better of the line than had a late change blow me up. I do my best to keep the default lineups up to date.

[RavensFan2k3]

I actually lean slightly to Cleveland with Kluber. Model is mostly neutral right now at Cleveland 55% (-122), but line has dropped to -118 at some spots. Not enough to bet on for me as of now but may bear watching.

You really don't like Sonny Gray or any A's pitcher do you lol

[LT Profits]

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

5 MLB Plays Sunday

Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Royals OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +198 (Heritage)
Cardinals +151 (Heritage)

[Ralphie1412]

Going down with the ship in New York Huh?

[LT Profits]

You really don't like Sonny Gray or any A's pitcher do you lol

Gray has overachieved just a tad, but Kluber is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and remains underappreciated because of his record.

With that said, I passed.

[LT Profits]

Going down with the ship in New York Huh?

Rubby underrated, worth following rest of the season.

[eddycash]

bol gentlemen

[greypimps]

Rubby underrated, worth following rest of the season.

cant called that under rated.... lets go get 8 runs..

[R.P. McMurphy]

Sonny has not overachieved kids been a stud ace since coming up. Kluber on other hand has underachieved if anything. 2h should be better for him but always tough to back Tribe and the ridiculous prices on them for a team that can't hit most days and has proven nothing to be laying the kinda juice they lay most games. Need Dbags to rally for a 3t par let's go fukksticks!!!!

[bballs84]

Sonny best pitcher in AL not named Sale.. Imagine if he had a pen

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hes up there no doubt! Got a decent mlb sample size on him at this point and all he's done is delivered. Has what a 5/6 pitch arsenal and mixes it up very well with above avg velocity. Not sure what Lt's "overachieved" angle comes from and I totally respect his bases knowledge but disagree here.

[LT Profits]

KLUBER is second in the AL in WAR (3.8) behind only Sale (4.2).

I never said Gray is not good, all I said is he has overachieved a BIT. He had a 3.29 xFIP vs. a 2.20 ERA before today. He is sixth in AL in WAR so not like he is a scrub. Just too soon to rate him above Kluber.

[LT Profits]

Meanwhile am I going to lose that KC Over after a six-run first inning?

[EVfollower]

Meanwhile am I going to lose that KC Over after a six-run first inning?

Whats your system say about the Rockies/Braves game today total? Books have it at 10.5 and I took the under for a unit. Curious to know what your system says the total will be.

[LT Profits]

Whats your system say about the Rockies/Braves game today total? Books have it at 10.5 and I took the under for a unit. Curious to know what your system says the total will be.

9.9 so lean to your Under. I am done with official plays for today though.

[LT Profits]

OK guys family and I are currently in transit to Hershey and internet is sporadic on RT-81. LOL

Will check in periodically over next few days, but won't be back to work at full strength until Friday.

[EVfollower]

9.9 so lean to your Under. I am done with official plays for today though.

Cool thank you bud. Good luck with STL and the over in the KC/TOR, hope they hit for ya.

[dirtycash66]

Meanwhile am I going to lose that KC Over after a six-run first inning?

yeah that was a lil scary, i had money on the over myself

[FlyinAir]

Kluber is 4-10 coming off a Cy Young season. Ouch