Arizona favorite over San Diego with Shields?

[hunsi]

I understand Shields is on the road but beside De La Rosa's last outing against the San Fran where he gave up 0 ER in 8 inning, he has given up

9 ER/5 Innings at Dodgers
7 ER/5 Innings at Atlanta
4 ER/5 Innings at Milwaukee
4 ER/5 Innings at Cubs

Shield has only given up 12 runs over his past 5 games (32 innings) = 2.67 ERA

I do see last time out against Arizona, Shields gave up 5 ER in 6 innining.

This a weird line....very much like the Boston versus Atlanta game where everyone took Atlanta. This line screams Arizona while the books are praying for you to take San Diego. Im sure the public will!

[posey]

I don't buy into the bookie trap theory. You need only a few stats (and some sabermetrics) and you can easily put up a model which calculates odds. I have done this myself and most times the model shows similar odds like the one which come from the bookies. All in all the bookies make the money with the vigorish. Baseball is a too close sport so that odds can't be too far off in the end by definition.

[hunsi]

Posey, I'm a double degree engineer, in my forties and I don't understand what your trying to say. Deep stuff.

My point is Arizona was a favorite in the morning and the factors above point to which leads to an Arizona play. The ML is shifting towards SD based on the public...you can see it happening. I would bet it shifts the other direction before the game. I cap based on ML comparisons to stats and then review of Team Totals. Of course I weigh in trends, stats, team streaks etc but totals before a game start often point you to the right side. Trying to make it easy for joe gambler out there.

[terrortwylight]

SD is the favorite now

[JAKEPEAVY21]

SD is a mess right now and Shields has not pitched as well as his record indicates...this is coming from a SD fan.

[hunsi]

Arizona is hot right now