MLB - Monday, 6/15/15

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Rays UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +111 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 226-215-9, +32.89

[Vinnie Paz]

No rodon?

[pacman63]

Great hit LT on reds UNDER. when I saw play in caps I thought you must of really liked it. Thanks again

[LT Profits]

Great hit LT on reds UNDER. when I saw play in caps I thought you must of really liked it. Thanks again

Glad we hit it but it is just my normal convention to capitalize OVER and/or UNDER in my pick threads.

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Rays UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Marlins UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +111 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / Padres UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)

[jjgold]

A lot of unders in there LT

[terrortwylight]

5 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Rays UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Marlins UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +111 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / Padres UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)

Glad to see you like that NYY/MIA under. Thought I was crazy when I capped the game and I liked it

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Rays UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Mets -113 (Heritage)
Yankees / Marlins UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +111 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / Padres UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)

[Vinnie Paz]

-113 to fade the jay train?

[will2survive]

I must say (and of course that I could be wrong), the Blue Jays are my favorite play. Noah Syndergaard has been giving up a ton of hits. He really only had one great start when Carlos Gomez got beaned. Plus, the Jays are at favorable odds on an 11 game winning streak. You have to take the Blue Jays.

[yankees10]

Hondo mushed the jays

[44 Mag]

6 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Rays UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Mets -113 (Heritage)
Yankees / Marlins UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +111 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / Padres UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)

Don't get NYY or Oakland under ???? The Yankees are averaging 5.63 RPG since June 1st ??? These boys can hit.

[posey]

The Mets are 24-6 as home favs this season and Buehrle is a bum. The Jays haven't faced good pitchers since the start of their win streak when they beat Scherzer. Since then they have mostly been up against 4th or 5th starters, shaky guys and young/unproven SP. IMO Syndergaard is the best starter they have seen since June 2. And don't forget that they were kinda lucky (maybe the wrong word) in some games lately. Don't wanna downplay their performance as of late but it wasn't as clear as it seems. In 3 of their wins they were behind until the 9th and maybe we wouldn't talk about their streak if Houston hadn't blown a 6-4 lead in the 9th one week ago.

[will2survive]

The Mets are 24-6 as home favs this season and Buehrle is a bum. The Jays haven't faced good pitchers since the start of their win streak when they beat Scherzer. Since then they have mostly been up against 4th or 5th starters, shaky guys and young/unproven SP. IMO Syndergaard is the best starter they have seen since June 2. And don't forget that they were kinda lucky (maybe the wrong word) in some games lately. Don't wanna downplay their performance as of late but it wasn't as clear as it seems. In 3 of their wins they were behind until the 9th and maybe we wouldn't talk about their streak if Houston hadn't blown a 6-4 lead in the 9th one week ago.

I'm not saying that Syndergaard doesn't have a great future, but he's still young and has gotten hit hard lately. Was listening to the Mets game on the radio when I was out and S.F. was repeatedly dinking and dunking off of this guy. He needs to know how to use his velocity. He's give up a ton of hits in his last two starts. On the other hand, the Jays are as good as it gets 1 through 4 and the odds are impressive for a team on a roll like this, especially against an inexperienced pitcher.

[RollinDo]

Don't get NYY or Oakland under ???? The Yankees are averaging 5.63 RPG since June 1st ??? These boys can hit.

We could be wrong, but maybe you're not looking at numbers that indicate a strong Under play for this one...Tanana has allowed just 2 rubs in 20 innings away from home...Koehlin completely different pitcher at home than on road last 2 seasons...I am a stats guy keep in mind, so maybe Koehlin has regressed from an eye test POV - have watched a total of about 4 innings of baseball all season.

[leetreaper]

Syndergaard vs Jays bats

Last 2 starts he gave up 10 hits to SD and 10 hits to SF, if Tor can't produce 10+ then there must be something really really wrong.

[44 Mag]

We could be wrong, but maybe you're not looking at numbers that indicate a strong Under play for this one...Tanana has allowed just 2 rubs in 20 innings away from home...Koehlin completely different pitcher at home than on road last 2 seasons...I am a stats guy keep in mind, so maybe Koehlin has regressed from an eye test POV - have watched a total of about 4 innings of baseball all season.

Is Frank Tanana back in Baseball???? He must be 60 years old by now??? Wow, good for him. I am glad there is no age discrimination in MLB.

[44 Mag]

Syndergaard vs Jays bats

Last 2 starts he gave up 10 hits to SD and 10 hits to SF, if Tor can't produce 10+ then there must be something really really wrong.

[44 Mag]

We could be wrong, but maybe you're not looking at numbers that indicate a strong Under play for this one...Tanana has allowed just 2 rubs in 20 innings away from home...Koehlin completely different pitcher at home than on road last 2 seasons...I am a stats guy keep in mind, so maybe Koehlin has regressed from an eye test POV - have watched a total of about 4 innings of baseball all season.

Hey, what's a "rub" ??? I thought they used that term in NASCAR ??? You know: " Rubbing is Racing ". And who is Koehlin ???? Is he related to Bartolo Colon ???? LOL. Just f..... with ya.

[leetreaper]

But line is rising for Mets lol

[leetreaper]

Yeah, Koeh should throw a decent game after being ripped on the road, got Fish & Under here.

[leetreaper]

LT where did you get +105 on Fish Under? -128 on Pinny

[44 Mag]

But line is rising for Mets lol

I find it hard to believe " Cinder Block" is going to cool those bats. Using the spelling that RollinDo uses. LOL. BOL tonight Lee.

[leetreaper]

I find it hard to believe " Cinder Block" is going to cool those bats. Using the spelling that RollinDo uses. LOL. BOL tonight Lee.

Likewise

[RollinDo]

Hey, what's a "rub" ??? I thought they used that term in NASCAR ??? You know: " Rubbing is Racing ". And who is Koehlin ???? Is he related to Bartolo Colon ???? LOL. Just f..... with ya.

Guess my post was filled with flubs.
Goes to show how much I know mlb.
I do remember Frank Tanana...guess the dude's name for Yanks is Tanaka...my bad.
Koehlin - Koehler...whatever.

[LT Profits]

My model couldn't care less about win streaks (or any streak for that matter), it analyzes each game on its own merit and it has Mets at 56% (-127). It rates Buehrle worse than Syndergard and it is easy to see why. With Buehrle, it is basically what you see is what you get as his peripherals don't really point to any regression one way or the other (xFIP of 4.43 vs. ERA of 4.25). Syndergard on the other hand has been extremely unlucky with a .358 BABIP, the kid actually has a 2.96 FIP and 3.20 xFIP.

[RollinDo]

I don't get the Under in TB actually.
Nats get a DH too.
After seeing Sale yesterday, wouldn't be surprised to see Rays nail Gonzo for 3 or 4 before he hits the showers.

[LT Profits]

LT where did you get +105 on Fish Under? -128 on Pinny

It is right there in my post as it always is. Heritage just before 10:40am ET

[44 Mag]

My model couldn't care less about win streaks (or any streak for that matter), it analyzes each game on its own merit and it has Mets at 56% (-127). It rates Buehrle worse than Syndergard and it is easy to see why. With Buehrle, it is basically what you see is what you get as his peripherals don't really point to any regression one way or the other (xFIP of 4.43 vs. ERA of 4.25). Syndergard on the other hand has been extremely unlucky with a .358 BABIP, the kid actually has a 2.96 FIP and 3.20 xFIP.

Who is this directed at ??? Your models are obviously serving you well in MLB.

[posey]

I don't get the Under in TB actually.
Nats get a DH too.
After seeing Sale yesterday, wouldn't be surprised to see Rays nail Gonzo for 3 or 4 before he hits the showers.

What has Sale to do w/ Gio?

[LT Profits]

I don't get the Under in TB actually.
Nats get a DH too.
After seeing Sale yesterday, wouldn't be surprised to see Rays nail Gonzo for 3 or 4 before he hits the showers.

Both pitchers trending the right way, Gonzalez should keep it up, Ramirez may or may not but the Nats have never faced him before.

[LT Profits]

Who is this directed at ??? Your models are obviously serving you well in MLB.

Couple of people questioning Synd vs. Toronto bats.

[RollinDo]

What has Sale to do w/ Gio?

Posey - think you can figure that one out yourself...you're a smart guy.

[44 Mag]

Couple of people questioning Synd vs. Toronto bats.

That would be me. Thank you. No need to get upset over this stuff. BOL.

[LT Profits]

That would be me. Thank you. No need to get upset over this stuff. BOL.

Who was getting upset? I was making a factual point that streaks are not considered is all.