Why not simply bet F5 ?

[posey]

I make some money, yes, but overall I have been heavily hurt by bullpens over the last few weeks. Last one being yesterday, as the generally solid Yanks pen nearly blew a 8-1 lead in the top of the 9th. I was on Yankees -1. So it pushed at least. But there were several plays which I thought were safe because of 3 or 4 run leads in the 7th or later and it didn't hit because of those lowsy pens.

So I think I'll play more F5 bets from now on.

What do you think about this topic and what is your opinion on it?

[VegasPlayer]

Don't know if it falls under woulda, coulda, shoulda or not. I had the Snakes Thursday and sure enough led 1-0 after 5 only for the pen to surrender the lead when they pulled the starter and brought out Joe Scmuck for the 6th. Guess the plays could have a filter by giving extra weight to bullpen strength to determine whether or not to play FF. I know relievers are very frustrating to watch. All the crotch scratching, mound stalking, fidgeting, and angst they show is really unnerving at times. Takes em what seems like 3 minutes to throw a pitch. Just like Hockey I guess "Nothing worse than a 2 goal lead in the 3rd period".

[BayArea888]

First five on the runline is where the value's at. A team like the Yankees, for example, is extremely probable to win the game when leading going past the sixth. In other words, if the Yankees were to win, they would win the first five, most likely.

I'll be more than willing to put 2 units on that, especially at +110.

[posey]

The solidity of the Yanks pen is just those two guys. Do you think Esmil fvcking Rogers is an integral part of it? The crappy pens are just a part of the game. I'm sure there are aspects of doing mainly first 5 that involve capping or thinking out your plays that are entirely different approach-wise then just playing the final score. I think an obvious way to look into or at F5 plays, is finding a favorable pitcher with an unimpressive record who's been befallen by a crappy bullpen. Of course, the flip side of that is you're sacrificing value to take the BP out of the equation. I also think if you watch a lot of baseball you'll find pitchers that can get through the order a couple of times before they break down. Jon Neise is a prime example of this and he did it again tonight. He'll go 5-6 innings, throw 100 pitches and break down in the 6th or 7th, giving the lead away and leaving with a ND. Always felt the Mets were foolish for not moving him two offseasons ago when teams were rumored to be offering top prospects.

The thing is, I was on Dbacks Under 9 and it was 2-3 until Mid 8th and then the Mets BP gives up 4 runs.
Yankees lead 8-1 until Top 9th and then it was 8-7.
And regarding Yankees: It wasn't only Esmil. Of course he is a bum, but he wasn't the only choker. It was Dellin Betances (0.30 ERA!!!) who came in with bases loaded and no outs and score 8-3. And then he gives up a 2-run single and 2 walks. 4 runs scored while Betances was pitching.
And that's what hurts me right now. As I said I am still able to make profit but I can't remember that I was hurt by bullpens as much as in recent weeks. It's so disgusting when you see that you made a bet which looked like totally right and then there come some relievers and blow your bet up.
Maybe I am simply picking those games where the relievers are bad, but normally I take the pen into account when capping a game. Of course it happens that pens blow games, leads or whatever, but blowing leads of 3 or more in 1 inning, which happened multiple times over the last few weeks, is really outstanding - in a negative way.

It may be that I am little bit hurt by some bullpens pitching totally worse compared to last season, but others who did bad last year are doing much better this year.
Neither the Mets pen nor the Yankees pen have bad stats this year.

Nonetheless the sabers tell us that there is at least a slight regression in bullpen performances going on compared to last year:

		FIP	xFIP	SIERA
2015	Average	3,68	3,80	3,46
2014	Average	3,60	3,67	3,33
	Difference	-0,08	-0,13	-0,13

That may be not too drastic but at least I know that my assumption that this year the pens are worse is not too far off.

[posey]

None of what you wrote makes a bit of sense

Well, all in all he says that there are several teams (he took the Yanks as an example) which have reliable bullpens who can carry a lead until the end. But as I said, yesterday it was THIS bullpen which is normally reliable and was not only hurt by their LR, but also by their top setup man.

[Kek13]

I wouldn't switch what you are doing just because of a bad string of luck, obviously you are handicapping the games well, Yankees have had a solid bullpen all year, making adjustments because of a small sample size over 162 games will just have you in the long run picking an choosing games with no solid system, which becomes a coin flip an you will end up on the wrong side of the coin flip if you always adjust for the heads an tails

[posey]

Yes, I think you are right, thumbs up. I have thought a little bit about it and I do agree.