MLB - Saturday, 5/16/15

DIXONBETS · 05-16-15, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)

YTD: 128-127-6, +13.31

Like the ROCKIES Today!

RavensFan2k3 · 05-16-15, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by DIXONBETS

Like the ROCKIES Today!

Goodluck with that

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Goodluck with that

They are worth the price. Greinke is just not the same yet this year despite the record. Not that he is bad or anything, but his strikeout rate is down from last year, his walks are slightly up and he has benefited from a .220 BABIP and 87.6% strand rate. His xFIP is 3.62, way above the 1.52 ERA. De La Rosa is the opposite, he is a lot better than his early stats. Yeah he's only gone 16 innings but he has 23 strikeouts (12.94 per 9) and he's allowing a .468 BABIP with a 47.6% strand rate. And he IS supposed to be the Rockies ace after all.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-16-15, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

They are worth the price. Greinke is just not the same yet this year despite the record. Not that he is bad or anything, but his strikeout rate is down from last year, his walks are slightly up and he has benefited from a .220 BABIP and 87.6% strand rate. His xFIP is 3.62, way above the 1.52 ERA. De La Rosa is the opposite, he is a lot better than his early stats. Yeah he's only gone 16 innings but he has 23 strikeouts (12.94 per 9) and he's allowing a .468 BABIP with a 47.6% strand rate. And he IS supposed to be the Rockies ace after all.

Very good points. What percentage do you have Rockies of winning?

posey · 05-16-15, 07:57 AM

Additionally Dodgers are (normally) worse against LHP than against RHP. But Greinke he has a bombastic record against the NL West since joining the Dodgers. There are some things I like about the Rockies and some about the Dodgers. But all in all I think I will pass since somehow I think it's quite realistic that the Rockies don't win more than 33% in this constellation. Maybe I will pick the over in the end.

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by posey

Additionally Dodgers are (normally) worse against LHP than against RHP. But Greinke he has a bombastic record against the NL West since joining the Dodgers. There are some things I like about the Rockies and some about the Dodgers. But all in all I think I will pass since somehow I think it's quite realistic that the Rockies don't win more than 33% in this constellation. Maybe I will pick the over in the end.

I know, something like a 16-0 run? But I don't care about stuff like that generally, it's mostly just variance,

jjgold · 05-16-15, 08:02 AM

I like your card so far LT

Phils starting to play better

Tor and Col can score runs so you always have a shot

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Very good points. What percentage do you have Rockies of winning?

Originally posted by posey

Additionally Dodgers are (normally) worse against LHP than against RHP. But Greinke he has a bombastic record against the NL West since joining the Dodgers. There are some things I like about the Rockies and some about the Dodgers. But all in all I think I will pass since somehow I think it's quite realistic that the Rockies don't win more than 33% in this constellation. Maybe I will pick the over in the end.

My model actually has Rocks at 36%, +178. It is sabre heavy so the BABIP variance may have something to do with it.

posey · 05-16-15, 08:17 AM

Don't know about a streak but Dodgers are 26-6 with him against NL West.

Do you run a programm or do you use Excel or whatever? Just curious.

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by posey

Don't know about a streak but Dodgers are 26-6 with him against NL West.

Do you run a programm or do you use Excel or whatever? Just curious.

It is a program, I enter pitchers and some other stuff and it fetches stats, mostly sabre ones, to create the line. I did NOT set it up myself, if I remember I will ask the programmer later what language he used to set it up. I want to say R, but not 100% certain.

PorkChop · 05-16-15, 09:17 AM

Jays finally get their win today. My play of day. And plus money .

posey · 05-16-15, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It is a program, I enter pitchers and some other stuff and it fetches stats, mostly sabre ones, to create the line. I did NOT set it up myself, if I remember I will ask the programmer later what language he used to set it up. I want to say R, but not 100% certain.

Thanks. BOL.

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 10:18 AM

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)

Conqueror · 05-16-15, 10:31 AM

Are the Blue Jays paying you to always bet on them?

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Are the Blue Jays paying you to always bet on them?

I have amnesia, every game is unique to me.

lucasdawg · 05-16-15, 10:37 AM

might take that under, leaning tampa? any suggestions?

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by lucasdawg

might take that under, leaning tampa? any suggestions?

No opinion, line seems right on.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-16-15, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Jays finally get their win today. My play of day. And plus money .

Hmm, hope you're right

lucasdawg · 05-16-15, 10:59 AM

tailed you parlay, philli, jays and tampa

Jayvegas420 · 05-16-15, 11:07 AM

I like over in the Angels game.

Jays are always tough to cheer for. I am on Houston.
Jays game look d like an over to me.

cankid · 05-16-15, 11:12 AM

thanks gl today, like jays also

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 11:13 AM

2 More MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Angels +116 (Heritage)
Brewers +130 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 04:53 PM

1 Last MLB Play

7 MLB Plays Saturday

Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Angels +116 (Heritage)
Brewers +130 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)
Red Sox +153 (Heritage)

44 Mag · 05-16-15, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Are the Blue Jays paying you to always bet on them?

44 Mag · 05-16-15, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

7 MLB Plays Saturday

Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Angels +116 (Heritage)
Brewers +130 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)
Red Sox +153 (Heritage)

Rockies & Red Sox ??? Good Luck with those two. I know you like dogs, but really???

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Rockies & Red Sox ??? Good Luck with those two. I know you like dogs, but really???

Rockies are actually my DOD in your thread.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-16-15, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Jays finally get their win today. My play of day. And plus money .

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Hmm, hope you're right

Welp, I shoulda known

Big Bear · 05-16-15, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Phillies +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +106 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +222 (Heritage)

YTD: 128-127-6, +13.31

nice hit with the Rockies pal

LT Profits · 05-16-15, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Rockies & Red Sox ??? Good Luck with those two. I know you like dogs, but really???

Turned out OK.

jjgold · 05-17-15, 12:02 AM

LT you're crushing it