MLB over/unders rationales included

[KspecialD]

Marlins @ Braves - Koehler (-105) vs Cahill (-105) Over 7 1/2 (+105)
Marlins 1-6 to start the season need to do something tonight... Lucky for them they get Cahill. I see them chasing him by the 5th inning. I see them scoring 3-4 runs by the 5th. Stanton is due for a big game!
Braves 6-1 are seeing the ball well and I like that CJ is starting tonight batting in the 6 hole. Koehler has pitched well at Turner but I see the Braves scoring 3-4 off of him as well. The Fish bullpen has been atrocious and I see the Braves scoring another couple in the 7th or 8th.

Prediction: 6-5 Fish
Bonus: Yes on Run in the 1st

DiamondBacks @ Padres - Hellickson (+121) vs Despaigne (-131) Over 6 1/2 (-115)
Hellickson comes off a start giving up 9 hits and 3 runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Giants. The Pads line up is that much better than the Giants. When you average the Padres 1-6 hitters they are batting around .310 combined. I think the Padres score enough on their own to get close to the over themselves. I see Hellickson giving up 4-5 in 6 innings. Despaigne is a reliever that is coming in making a spot start for Kennedy. Kid has some good stuff but I don't see him pitching past the 5th. Between Goldschmidt, Trumbo and Lamb I think the Pads have enough to score 3-4 runs.

Prediction: 3-6 Padres
Bonus: Justin Upton HR (+500)


Rockies @ Giants - Bergman (+117) vs Hudson (-127) Over 7 (-115)
Christian Bergman making a spot start for the Rockies is a reliever who had a 5.93 ERA in 14'. I know the Giants can't hit the ball out of their shadow BUT the Rockies can and will against an aging Hudson. The Rocks lineup is full of speed, contact hitters and power. They will indeed make Hudson throw strikes and when he is behind in the count they will make him pay. After a lackluster performance last night look for both teams to score 4 a piece in the first 7 innings leaving the game up to the relievers... By then the over will have hit and you can sit back and enjoy. The Giants are hopeful to have Casey McGehee back in the lineup.

Prediction: 4-5 Rockies
Bonus: Cargo Over 2 - Hits + Runs + RBIs

[KspecialD]

Picks: 1-0
Bonus: 1-0

Good start to the night... GL to us all!

[A4K]

Love it. Keep up the good work.

[KspecialD]

Padres 3 in the Bottom of the 1st 4 more over the next 8 innings... I like it!

[KspecialD]

J UP! little bro of Melvin with the HRRRRR!!!

Bonus: 2-0 on the night!

[paco]

Giants offense are pathetic. 15+ innings getting shut out at home by a 2 nobody's lol

[KspecialD]

They are terrible!!! Good ole Henry Blanco with 1st and 2nd no outs strikes out twice. I think the Rockies offense knows they are safe with a 3 run lead.

[KspecialD]

Let my mouth get me into trouble! 6 runs in that Dback/Pads game...

Picks: 1-1
Bonus: 2-0

AND that Giants/Rocks game looks like it's going to come up short... Definitely had chances in both games but the offenses fell asleep from the 3rd inning on in both! Anyhowers on to tomorrow!

Goodluck to all!

[KspecialD]

Update: Picks: 1-2 Bonus: 2-1

Early Leans (will update tmrw):
Wash +114
Indians -142
KC -111
NYY +103

[KspecialD]

Early Game:
Nationals @ BoSox: Gio Gonzalez vs Wade Miley --> +114 Washington Nationals

Try to avoid the sweep Gio takes the mound against the BoSox. He had a good outing in his first start giving up 3ER over 7 even though he wasn't in there for any of them. Nats looked to get things going with the bats yesterday and I like Desmond and Taylor at the 8th and 9th hole getting on base to allow Escobar, Wirth and Harper to drive them in. Day Games are always tricky b/c the Under is always at play. Obviously Boston has looked good however Panda and Xander might be out for this game which takes 2 of their "hottest bats" out of the line-up. Miley has a lifetime ERA of 3.79 and has the potential but in this start I'm predicting he gives up 4-5 against a desperate Nats team.

Prediction: Nats 5 BoSox 3

GL to ALL!

[KspecialD]

Nats Up 8-2 in the bottom of the 3rd... A lot of game left but I'm liking our position!

[KspecialD]

Tonight's Card:

Tigers @ Pirates: Simon (+137) vs Liriano (-147) OVER 7 1/2 (-110)

The Tiger's have been stymied somewhat the first two games of this series and tonight they take on Liriano who is a hot/cold pitcher. I don't think it will be an explosion of production for the Tigers but 4-5 runs is definitely possible and with Simon on the bump I see the Pirates scoring 3-4 of their own of the him. Look for Harrison/Polanco to get on early and Cutch and Alvarez need to cash in!

Prediction: (Taking the OVER) Tigers 4 Pirates 5


Yanks @ Os: Eovaldi (+103) vs Norris (-113)

Yankees bottom half of the lineup literally looks like a double AA team at the bat. After watching the Giants last night I think we found a team with a worse 7,8,9 hitter. Anyhowsers after saying that I like Eovaldi and the Yankees tonight. Living is So Fl I had a chance to watch him with the Fish the last couple years and he is legit. His first start wasn't great however I feel a bounce back tonight. Adam Jones is on fire however if he can pitch around him I like the Yanks getting the + MONEY! Side-note Norris has a chance to win his first five starts against the Yanks but that 24.0 ERA doesn't look appetizing (granted his first start was against Toronto).

Prediction: (Yanks +103) Yankees 5 Orioles 3


Rays @ Jays: Ramirez (+129) vs Buehrle (-139) OVER 8 1/2
This is more of a feeling than anything... The first two games of the series have gone well UNDER the projected total but tonight I think Toronto brings the bats... It was between the OVER and Toronto -1 1/2 but I honestly don't trust Buehrle and (other then a handful) I really don't trust bull pens these days. Toronto's lineup includes 1.Reyes 2.Donaldson 3.Batista 4.Encarnacion 5.Navarro... This looks tasty from the over perspective when Ramirez got shelled the first game of the year. Retribution game of the series I think they bring the lumber. Rays who knows... Hot/Cold It's like pizza baby when the other team scores 6 themselves all we need is a 3 spot!

Prediction: (Taking the OVER) Rays 4 Jays 6

GL GENTLEMEN! LETS CRUSH IT!

[Fred The Hammer]

I can't believe Jason Marquis is starting for my Reds...seems like he should be 52 years old by now? Plus the Reds pen besides Chapman is a complete dumpster fire. Travis Wood is mediocre as well.....Over 7!! Marquis wasn't that bad against the Cards but I cashed the Over in his first start

[KspecialD]

Haha literally laughed out loud reading this because I thought the same thing! I'm 30 and I feel this "MAN" has been pitching since I can remember watching baseball... And yes he is hit or miss HOWEVER I've bet against him on numerous occasions and he's burnt me! Wood on the other hand is carrying a 1.61 ERA against his former team at Wrigley. Plus a 10-15mph wind blowing out of the ENE might keep the ball in play... This being said, I Don't hate the play because I agree both have the potential for giving up runs but it might be close... 3-4, 5-3 kind of game! Good luck bromigo! I'll be rooting for ya

[KspecialD]

Nationals (+113) For the W

1-0 For the day... on to tonight's games (write up above)

Picks: 2-2
Bonus: 2-1

BONUS PICK* - Team to score first Cubbies (+100)

GL Fellas!

[KspecialD]

BONUS comes thru again w/ the Cubbies 1st to SCORE!!!

UPDATED

BONUS: 3-1

[KspecialD]

AND I LOVE when the OVER hits in the 4th Inning! TB 0 - TOR 9 that would be OVER 8 1/2

UPDATED:

Picks: 3-2
Bonus: 3-1

LETS SEND SOME GOOD JUJU to them Yanks and both the Tigs and Pirates!!!

GL Y'all!!!

[KspecialD]

Thanks man! Been seeing things that jump off the board to me and just love the game!

[KspecialD]

NYY Bullpen ewwwwwiiiieeee! Welp between them and the Tigers/Pirates having a pillow fight it isn't looking great lol

[KspecialD]

Update: Tigers/Pirates big 1-0 "TERRRRRBLE"!

Picks: 3-3
Bonus: 3-1

[KspecialD]

Another Lackluster finish! Tomorrow is a new day... Overall 3-2 Today but going to start my research tonight.

Yanks Pen looks like a bunch of frat house joy boys that all they know how to do is throw beach balls up to the plate. Going to look into future OVERS with these cats! Anyways GL everyone... And to anyone who has followed I'll be back tomorrow!

Picks: 3-4
Bonus: 3-1

[KspecialD]

LIVE BETTING...

OVER 6 1/2 Dbacks/Pads +110

Going to bullpens soon... 1 run a piece is what we need! Going to make the night here!

GL BOYS!

[KspecialD]

Updated:

Picks: 3-4
Bonus: 3-2

Should of went to bed instead of getting pulled in! Ended the day 3-3

Tomorrow is a new day...

Leaning:
BrewCrew - Fiers +133
Phils/Washington O6 -115
Marlins - Cosart +103

Night Folks!

[KspecialD]

Phils (Hamels) vs Nats (Fister) OVER 6 Can't Sleep on this line b/c 1/2Run could mean Win or Loss...

These 2 pitchers squared away less than a week ago and pitched a great game in Philly... HOWEVER a lot has changed for the Nats these past couple days... 4 Runs, 7 Runs, 10 Runs the last 3 games. Don't get me wrong Hamels is a great pitcher and the Phils lineup is pretty terrible but I truly feel this number is 1-1 1/2 runs low. Revenge Factor? Maybe but doubtful... I just think having Wirth back in the lineup gives Harper/ZimmerMAN a better opportunity to see pitches. Some will view this as a square play HOWEVER when you look at Fister's stats against the Phillies they aren't anything to get excited about! I like the Nats scoring 3-4 off Hamels and the Phils scoring 3-4 off Hamels.

CONSERVATIVE PREDICTION: Phils 3 - Nats 4 OVER BEING THE PLAY

Be back tomorrow with the rest of the card!

[krk1030]

read your first post thought it was from tonight

upton homered tonight

[KspecialD]

I know! He is on a tear... He also homered the night I got the 500+

With Kemp in front of him this year I'm liking his chances of doing big things. Big Brave fan here and was sad to see him go!

Not Sure on your book but I like Stanton and Braun going deep tmrw.

I really like the Brewers tomorrow. Lackey is a gas can waiting to explode at any time! Fiers + Day game + Adams, Holliday, Carpenter, Molina, Peralta, Jay were 9 for 53 against him last year =.169avg. @ +133 I think there is big value!

[KspecialD]

LETS GO STREAKIN!

Today's Card:

KC/Twins OVER 7 1/2 (-110)
BrewCrew (+130)
Phils/Nats OVER 6 (-115)

Good Luck BROS!

[KspecialD]

BONUS PLAY --> Joey Mauer OVER 2 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Batting in the 3 hole, Mauer is hitting .289 this year and has only gone hit-less in 1 game this year... BIG STAT He is batting .407 in his career off Vargas! Think the Twins score between 3-4 today and hopefully he is a part of that!

GL Fellas!

[KspecialD]

Got to love it when you cash 2 plays in the same game before the 5th inning!!!! Weeeeee!!!!

Updated:

Picks: 4-4
Bonus: 4-2

[KspecialD]

Chasing the wrong dogs! 2-1 for the day...

KC/Twins OVER 7 1/2
Mauer OVER 2 hits+runs+RBIs
Brewers +133

2-1 For the Day... Coming Back with Phils/Nats OVER 6 and I still like it OVER 6 1/2

Updated:

Picks: 4-5
Bonus: 4-2

BONUS PLAY: Marlins OVER TT 3 1/2

Gee 9.00 ERA, Marlins coming off a winning series against the Bravos... Look for Stanton to go YYYAAAAAWWWDDDD!!!... not playing it but +450 is tempting!!!! Think Gee will get chased around the 5th inning... giving up 4-5 runs.

Prediction: Marlins 5 Mets 3

Play Marlins TT OVER 3 1/2

Anyways decent start to the day... Looking to go 4-1 on the day when these come in!

[KspecialD]

Yes sir!!!! Love when games turn out the way I predict em!
4-1 on the day. AND Stanton hit that homer, hope someone took
that play I gave earlier! Ewwwwieee!

Update:
Picks:5-5
Bonus:5-2

Looking at tmrws card after I finish watching this Marlins game.

[KspecialD]

4/16 Recap:
KC/Twins OVER 7 1/2
Mauer OVER 2 hits+runs+RBIs
Brewers +133
Phils/Nats OVER 6
Marlins TT OVER 3 1/2

4-1 On the day! NOT INCLUDING that Stanton +450 on the HR

Up to Date:

Picks: 5-5
BONUS PICKS:5-2

Leans for 4/17
Padres
Braves
Pirates
Rangers/Seattle OVER 7 1/2

GL Fellas!

[KspecialD]

No Plays for the early games...

Lines are about where I thought they would be... Both Over/Unders are set at 7 1/2 which is consistent with both starting pitchers. Each game has a starter that has the potential of throwing a gem (Price/Shields) and killing any over while each game also a guy who can lose it mentally on the mound (Samardzija/Hammel) and give up 4-5 runs in an inning. Obviously the Tigers at home have appeal with price on the mound but at -164 to much juice for me. In the Padres/Cubs game look for Bryant to bring even more life to this lineup who is 3-2 at home facing the Padres who are 1-2 on the road. Truth be told I don't trust Hammel.

But if I had to make a play on the early games it would be on the OVER 7 1/2 in the WSox/Tigers
I think that Tigers lineup gets 4-5 of Samardzija and the WSox 2-3 off Price before both tack on 1 against the pen.
Prediction: WSox 3 - Tigers 6

GL Yall... Lets get this Friday started RIIIIGGGHT!

Picks to come later!

[KspecialD]

Today's Picks 4/17

Indians @ Twins: Kluber vs Pelfrey - UNDER 8 1/2 Runs (-115)

UNDER is the play here. Reigning AL Cy Young winner vs a guy who is pitching at home against a depleted Indians line-up. Have a friend who pitched with Klubes at Stetson and he talked to him a week ago and said he feels he is ahead of where he was last year. Twins are coming off back to back wins against the KC Royals however Vargas and Volquez aren't the same caliber pitcher as Kluber. Concerning the Indians, they are banged up and Pelfrey should stifle them enough to keep this one in the 6-7 run range. I like the Indians winning 4-3

UNDER 8 1/2 is the play!


Rangers @ Seattle: Gallardo vs Happ - OVER 7 Runs (-115)
This total seems fishy to me and this might be the squarest play of the day with two AL teams that are capable of putting up runs in bunches. Obviously both teams have underachieved thus far however with Cruz, Cano, Seager, Beltre and Fielder in these lineups any given inning can score 3-4 runs. I don't truly like either pitcher Happ's lifetime ERA around 4.3 and Gallardo's around 3.8 I just like the offenses in this game.

OVER 7 runs is the Play!


Side-notes:

Nelson Cruz goes for his 6th consecutive game with a HR

Johnny Cueto hasn't won at Busch since 2010 ewwwwiieeeee!

Anyways GL bros lets make it happen today!

[Honeybadger44]

Great thread! Tailing your under play on Indians/Twins. Good luck