While crunching the numbers for 2008, I put together a few stats that I think may be useful to others, so I thought I'd share. The four data sets are:
- Runs Scored by each team, in each inning (1-9), on the road
- Runs Scored by each team, in each inning (1-9), at home
- Expectation of each team scoring in each inning (1-9), on the road
- Expectation of each team scoring in each inning (1-9), at home.
I think that the early inning stats in particular may have applications as a possible filter for CK Crumbs, and probably for other props, etc that I haven't thought of. I'll be able to produce stats for previous seasons as well fairly quickly now that one is done and will publish them when I have them. I hope these are of help to some.
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TOTAL RUNS SCORED PER INNING AS THE ROAD TEAM - 2008 SEASON
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
BAL 53 40 45 31 52 49 38 42 31
TOR 34 28 38 39 54 52 34 37 34
BOS 43 37 45 38 64 38 43 36 29
TBA 24 33 45 33 48 37 36 63 32
NYA 36 37 40 57 29 58 41 27 43
CHA 33 43 37 44 28 38 40 43 27
KCA 40 29 43 30 43 44 49 39 28
CLE 41 45 45 49 65 38 33 29 24
DET 42 41 33 33 55 41 56 42 26
MIN 35 35 55 37 32 61 44 39 51
ANA 46 36 57 49 42 53 43 28 27
SEA 40 25 38 28 35 51 39 33 36
TEX 51 55 46 42 40 45 48 50 35
OAK 32 44 22 40 43 30 44 29 33
ATL 42 23 34 39 57 61 17 43 52
FLO 50 42 54 54 29 44 30 38 47
NYN 65 45 61 45 38 46 25 45 35
PHI 55 30 55 39 34 56 34 43 39
WAS 22 31 35 36 34 44 40 46 31
CHN 37 32 50 50 48 38 46 49 40
PIT 36 53 47 28 35 37 32 44 48
MIL 43 38 25 44 39 50 48 35 44
CIN 31 33 29 37 39 35 45 24 48
HOU 52 30 42 41 48 36 24 42 22
SLN 52 41 59 45 32 46 49 36 40
ARI 40 31 31 36 49 43 31 28 30
LAN 45 34 40 44 35 37 42 27 41
SFN 35 23 47 41 43 38 25 33 32
COL 46 24 42 35 55 26 29 39 38
SDN 51 20 45 45 26 46 22 33 44
AVG. 41.7 35.3 42.8 40.3 42.4 43.9 37.6 38.1 36.2
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TOTAL RUNS SCORED PER INNING AS THE HOME TEAM - 2008 SEASON
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 XX*
BAL 41 46 73 45 56 42 33 38 19 49
TOR 49 45 47 44 41 46 24 39 16 40
BOS 64 46 58 60 43 43 39 78 15 31
TBA 47 49 48 57 40 48 53 33 18 35
NYA 53 39 48 49 39 46 73 39 22 42
CHA 55 57 49 44 67 54 59 64 11 36
KCA 38 40 48 47 49 35 33 32 12 46
CLE 64 49 48 30 54 59 43 58 15 40
DET 35 48 57 69 53 47 46 49 23 47
MIN 46 41 59 56 59 57 63 40 7 33
ANA 38 42 43 41 44 62 37 43 31 40
SEA 40 31 50 38 40 40 29 37 21 50
TEX 52 52 86 44 56 47 45 59 42 49
OAK 35 26 40 42 43 36 32 40 20 50
ATL 42 55 52 28 42 43 45 42 28 45
FLO 49 41 34 43 49 43 35 44 28 47
NYN 74 23 74 38 32 54 38 37 11 41
PHI 54 41 31 53 53 67 41 48 16 41
WAS 54 35 26 34 28 43 39 34 12 56
CHN 42 61 49 66 44 46 69 56 16 32
PIT 47 20 19 63 68 46 35 33 21 49
MIL 48 27 47 56 39 39 53 39 15 43
CIN 51 34 28 50 42 50 60 23 30 49
HOU 58 35 49 33 49 37 45 42 16 41
SLN 65 41 44 48 43 35 30 43 19 46
ARI 63 39 20 46 56 40 48 64 15 37
LAN 66 27 38 40 51 36 36 26 17 42
SFN 40 27 29 41 17 38 41 36 29 54
COL 49 47 42 64 44 47 47 47 18 45
SDN 45 26 34 34 29 31 37 33 11 54
AVG. 50.1 39.7 45.7 46.8 45.7 45.2 43.6 43.2 19.1 43.7
*COLUMN XX DENOTES THE NUMBER OF GAMES IN WHICH THE BOTTOM OF THE 9TH WAS PLAYED. ASSUME 81 FOR ALL OTHER INNINGS.
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Expectation of the Team Scoring in the Inning on the Road - 2008
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
BAL 36% 30% 32% 25% 31% 32% 26% 23% 19%
TOR 23% 20% 26% 32% 32% 35% 23% 25% 21%
BOS 30% 26% 23% 25% 37% 31% 30% 26% 21%
TBA 21% 25% 28% 26% 28% 30% 26% 33% 22%
NYA 30% 25% 23% 35% 26% 28% 28% 22% 27%
CHA 27% 31% 26% 25% 23% 22% 27% 30% 21%
KCA 30% 28% 31% 17% 26% 30% 31% 23% 25%
CLE 32% 32% 28% 32% 33% 30% 25% 25% 17%
DET 25% 30% 26% 23% 28% 30% 36% 27% 19%
MIN 25% 21% 28% 27% 23% 33% 28% 25% 30%
ANA 32% 25% 32% 30% 30% 26% 33% 22% 21%
SEA 23% 20% 27% 20% 26% 32% 22% 21% 25%
TEX 37% 31% 27% 28% 19% 26% 27% 30% 23%
OAK 26% 25% 20% 31% 26% 25% 23% 19% 25%
ATL 30% 16% 25% 20% 28% 35% 15% 25% 27%
FLO 38% 32% 28% 32% 19% 32% 23% 30% 28%
NYN 46% 32% 37% 32% 20% 30% 16% 23% 23%
PHI 37% 25% 35% 27% 27% 36% 23% 31% 25%
WAS 16% 23% 25% 26% 23% 28% 28% 30% 21%
CHN 26% 27% 32% 30% 35% 22% 28% 27% 26%
PIT 23% 33% 28% 27% 27% 27% 23% 33% 30%
MIL 31% 28% 20% 30% 30% 32% 33% 27% 27%
CIN 22% 26% 20% 25% 23% 27% 32% 21% 35%
HOU 35% 27% 22% 23% 27% 27% 21% 23% 19%
SLN 27% 21% 38% 32% 26% 33% 35% 31% 32%
ARI 23% 26% 21% 23% 31% 30% 27% 23% 23%
LAN 28% 23% 31% 36% 26% 25% 27% 16% 23%
SFN 28% 17% 28% 27% 23% 23% 22% 23% 25%
COL 28% 22% 26% 25% 32% 23% 30% 25% 26%
SDN 32% 17% 25% 30% 17% 32% 20% 28% 33%
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Expectation of the Team Scoring in the Inning at Home - 2008
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9*
BAL 30% 32% 42% 35% 36% 25% 23% 23% 27%
TOR 33% 31% 25% 25% 28% 33% 23% 27% 23%
BOS 38% 30% 28% 35% 26% 28% 28% 44% 35%
TBA 32% 28% 35% 36% 23% 31% 32% 25% 31%
NYA 35% 22% 27% 28% 28% 32% 37% 22% 33%
CHA 33% 32% 25% 32% 42% 36% 37% 37% 31%
KCA 27% 23% 36% 32% 35% 23% 26% 21% 17%
CLE 42% 30% 26% 26% 31% 38% 27% 30% 25%
DET 28% 32% 32% 36% 30% 37% 35% 26% 26%
MIN 36% 28% 38% 36% 36% 41% 36% 26% 15%
ANA 25% 28% 27% 30% 26% 37% 23% 25% 43%
SEA 33% 23% 37% 30% 25% 27% 20% 30% 24%
TEX 42% 36% 46% 28% 33% 32% 27% 38% 45%
OAK 23% 23% 19% 30% 26% 28% 20% 27% 26%
ATL 33% 36% 32% 25% 31% 31% 25% 27% 33%
FLO 33% 31% 28% 30% 27% 31% 25% 25% 34%
NYN 46% 21% 41% 27% 26% 33% 30% 25% 22%
PHI 37% 23% 26% 30% 31% 36% 32% 30% 24%
WAS 37% 27% 22% 25% 17% 27% 26% 25% 14%
CHN 28% 44% 32% 38% 26% 28% 40% 28% 31%
PIT 30% 16% 16% 40% 40% 35% 21% 23% 29%
MIL 36% 27% 35% 27% 23% 30% 37% 31% 26%
CIN 33% 26% 22% 30% 30% 36% 33% 17% 37%
HOU 33% 27% 33% 23% 33% 19% 28% 27% 27%
SLN 43% 28% 28% 32% 30% 30% 26% 30% 26%
ARI 35% 30% 19% 32% 38% 32% 35% 40% 22%
LAN 41% 21% 20% 25% 30% 33% 30% 17% 31%
SFN 28% 21% 20% 30% 17% 31% 26% 27% 31%
COL 32% 36% 30% 35% 26% 30% 32% 30% 27%
SDN 25% 17% 26% 23% 25% 22% 28% 21% 15%
* Bottom of 9th inning frequency adjusted for the actual number of of innings played. This applies to the home team only. All other innings based on 81 games each at home and away.
- Runs Scored by each team, in each inning (1-9), on the road
- Runs Scored by each team, in each inning (1-9), at home
- Expectation of each team scoring in each inning (1-9), on the road
- Expectation of each team scoring in each inning (1-9), at home.
I think that the early inning stats in particular may have applications as a possible filter for CK Crumbs, and probably for other props, etc that I haven't thought of. I'll be able to produce stats for previous seasons as well fairly quickly now that one is done and will publish them when I have them. I hope these are of help to some.
________________________________________ _______________
________________________________________ _______________
TOTAL RUNS SCORED PER INNING AS THE ROAD TEAM - 2008 SEASON
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
BAL 53 40 45 31 52 49 38 42 31
TOR 34 28 38 39 54 52 34 37 34
BOS 43 37 45 38 64 38 43 36 29
TBA 24 33 45 33 48 37 36 63 32
NYA 36 37 40 57 29 58 41 27 43
CHA 33 43 37 44 28 38 40 43 27
KCA 40 29 43 30 43 44 49 39 28
CLE 41 45 45 49 65 38 33 29 24
DET 42 41 33 33 55 41 56 42 26
MIN 35 35 55 37 32 61 44 39 51
ANA 46 36 57 49 42 53 43 28 27
SEA 40 25 38 28 35 51 39 33 36
TEX 51 55 46 42 40 45 48 50 35
OAK 32 44 22 40 43 30 44 29 33
ATL 42 23 34 39 57 61 17 43 52
FLO 50 42 54 54 29 44 30 38 47
NYN 65 45 61 45 38 46 25 45 35
PHI 55 30 55 39 34 56 34 43 39
WAS 22 31 35 36 34 44 40 46 31
CHN 37 32 50 50 48 38 46 49 40
PIT 36 53 47 28 35 37 32 44 48
MIL 43 38 25 44 39 50 48 35 44
CIN 31 33 29 37 39 35 45 24 48
HOU 52 30 42 41 48 36 24 42 22
SLN 52 41 59 45 32 46 49 36 40
ARI 40 31 31 36 49 43 31 28 30
LAN 45 34 40 44 35 37 42 27 41
SFN 35 23 47 41 43 38 25 33 32
COL 46 24 42 35 55 26 29 39 38
SDN 51 20 45 45 26 46 22 33 44
AVG. 41.7 35.3 42.8 40.3 42.4 43.9 37.6 38.1 36.2
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TOTAL RUNS SCORED PER INNING AS THE HOME TEAM - 2008 SEASON
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 XX*
BAL 41 46 73 45 56 42 33 38 19 49
TOR 49 45 47 44 41 46 24 39 16 40
BOS 64 46 58 60 43 43 39 78 15 31
TBA 47 49 48 57 40 48 53 33 18 35
NYA 53 39 48 49 39 46 73 39 22 42
CHA 55 57 49 44 67 54 59 64 11 36
KCA 38 40 48 47 49 35 33 32 12 46
CLE 64 49 48 30 54 59 43 58 15 40
DET 35 48 57 69 53 47 46 49 23 47
MIN 46 41 59 56 59 57 63 40 7 33
ANA 38 42 43 41 44 62 37 43 31 40
SEA 40 31 50 38 40 40 29 37 21 50
TEX 52 52 86 44 56 47 45 59 42 49
OAK 35 26 40 42 43 36 32 40 20 50
ATL 42 55 52 28 42 43 45 42 28 45
FLO 49 41 34 43 49 43 35 44 28 47
NYN 74 23 74 38 32 54 38 37 11 41
PHI 54 41 31 53 53 67 41 48 16 41
WAS 54 35 26 34 28 43 39 34 12 56
CHN 42 61 49 66 44 46 69 56 16 32
PIT 47 20 19 63 68 46 35 33 21 49
MIL 48 27 47 56 39 39 53 39 15 43
CIN 51 34 28 50 42 50 60 23 30 49
HOU 58 35 49 33 49 37 45 42 16 41
SLN 65 41 44 48 43 35 30 43 19 46
ARI 63 39 20 46 56 40 48 64 15 37
LAN 66 27 38 40 51 36 36 26 17 42
SFN 40 27 29 41 17 38 41 36 29 54
COL 49 47 42 64 44 47 47 47 18 45
SDN 45 26 34 34 29 31 37 33 11 54
AVG. 50.1 39.7 45.7 46.8 45.7 45.2 43.6 43.2 19.1 43.7
*COLUMN XX DENOTES THE NUMBER OF GAMES IN WHICH THE BOTTOM OF THE 9TH WAS PLAYED. ASSUME 81 FOR ALL OTHER INNINGS.
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Expectation of the Team Scoring in the Inning on the Road - 2008
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
BAL 36% 30% 32% 25% 31% 32% 26% 23% 19%
TOR 23% 20% 26% 32% 32% 35% 23% 25% 21%
BOS 30% 26% 23% 25% 37% 31% 30% 26% 21%
TBA 21% 25% 28% 26% 28% 30% 26% 33% 22%
NYA 30% 25% 23% 35% 26% 28% 28% 22% 27%
CHA 27% 31% 26% 25% 23% 22% 27% 30% 21%
KCA 30% 28% 31% 17% 26% 30% 31% 23% 25%
CLE 32% 32% 28% 32% 33% 30% 25% 25% 17%
DET 25% 30% 26% 23% 28% 30% 36% 27% 19%
MIN 25% 21% 28% 27% 23% 33% 28% 25% 30%
ANA 32% 25% 32% 30% 30% 26% 33% 22% 21%
SEA 23% 20% 27% 20% 26% 32% 22% 21% 25%
TEX 37% 31% 27% 28% 19% 26% 27% 30% 23%
OAK 26% 25% 20% 31% 26% 25% 23% 19% 25%
ATL 30% 16% 25% 20% 28% 35% 15% 25% 27%
FLO 38% 32% 28% 32% 19% 32% 23% 30% 28%
NYN 46% 32% 37% 32% 20% 30% 16% 23% 23%
PHI 37% 25% 35% 27% 27% 36% 23% 31% 25%
WAS 16% 23% 25% 26% 23% 28% 28% 30% 21%
CHN 26% 27% 32% 30% 35% 22% 28% 27% 26%
PIT 23% 33% 28% 27% 27% 27% 23% 33% 30%
MIL 31% 28% 20% 30% 30% 32% 33% 27% 27%
CIN 22% 26% 20% 25% 23% 27% 32% 21% 35%
HOU 35% 27% 22% 23% 27% 27% 21% 23% 19%
SLN 27% 21% 38% 32% 26% 33% 35% 31% 32%
ARI 23% 26% 21% 23% 31% 30% 27% 23% 23%
LAN 28% 23% 31% 36% 26% 25% 27% 16% 23%
SFN 28% 17% 28% 27% 23% 23% 22% 23% 25%
COL 28% 22% 26% 25% 32% 23% 30% 25% 26%
SDN 32% 17% 25% 30% 17% 32% 20% 28% 33%
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Expectation of the Team Scoring in the Inning at Home - 2008
Inn. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9*
BAL 30% 32% 42% 35% 36% 25% 23% 23% 27%
TOR 33% 31% 25% 25% 28% 33% 23% 27% 23%
BOS 38% 30% 28% 35% 26% 28% 28% 44% 35%
TBA 32% 28% 35% 36% 23% 31% 32% 25% 31%
NYA 35% 22% 27% 28% 28% 32% 37% 22% 33%
CHA 33% 32% 25% 32% 42% 36% 37% 37% 31%
KCA 27% 23% 36% 32% 35% 23% 26% 21% 17%
CLE 42% 30% 26% 26% 31% 38% 27% 30% 25%
DET 28% 32% 32% 36% 30% 37% 35% 26% 26%
MIN 36% 28% 38% 36% 36% 41% 36% 26% 15%
ANA 25% 28% 27% 30% 26% 37% 23% 25% 43%
SEA 33% 23% 37% 30% 25% 27% 20% 30% 24%
TEX 42% 36% 46% 28% 33% 32% 27% 38% 45%
OAK 23% 23% 19% 30% 26% 28% 20% 27% 26%
ATL 33% 36% 32% 25% 31% 31% 25% 27% 33%
FLO 33% 31% 28% 30% 27% 31% 25% 25% 34%
NYN 46% 21% 41% 27% 26% 33% 30% 25% 22%
PHI 37% 23% 26% 30% 31% 36% 32% 30% 24%
WAS 37% 27% 22% 25% 17% 27% 26% 25% 14%
CHN 28% 44% 32% 38% 26% 28% 40% 28% 31%
PIT 30% 16% 16% 40% 40% 35% 21% 23% 29%
MIL 36% 27% 35% 27% 23% 30% 37% 31% 26%
CIN 33% 26% 22% 30% 30% 36% 33% 17% 37%
HOU 33% 27% 33% 23% 33% 19% 28% 27% 27%
SLN 43% 28% 28% 32% 30% 30% 26% 30% 26%
ARI 35% 30% 19% 32% 38% 32% 35% 40% 22%
LAN 41% 21% 20% 25% 30% 33% 30% 17% 31%
SFN 28% 21% 20% 30% 17% 31% 26% 27% 31%
COL 32% 36% 30% 35% 26% 30% 32% 30% 27%
SDN 25% 17% 26% 23% 25% 22% 28% 21% 15%
* Bottom of 9th inning frequency adjusted for the actual number of of innings played. This applies to the home team only. All other innings based on 81 games each at home and away.