2015 MLB plays

[paco]

Like I said, typical Monday. Might as well take advantage.

Price and Cespedes to the Dodgers for Puig and Seager, BTW. Like it?

Yes, they need to sell sell sell. Club is done for the year.

[No coincidences]

Yes, they need to sell sell sell. Club is done for the year.

Sooner the better. Trade one, if not both. Farm system is garbage.

[No coincidences]

The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.

[No coincidences]

Chris Heston is now 11-5.

Chris Heston.

Give me a fvcking break.

[paco]

The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.

i think a lot of people were on the weak ass tigers but yea

[HardCore]

The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.

Cubs just wet the bed in the 9th so public didnt do that good tonight

[paco]

Cubs just wet the bed in the 9th so public didnt do that good tonight

Cubs walked off

[No coincidences]

Public goes 9-0.

[No coincidences]

I have literally seen it all now.

[No coincidences]

And then a double.

Jeezus effing Chriiiiist.

[No coincidences]

Fitting way to end the night.

+1.5 stranded on third base.

f\*\*k all of this nonsense.

[KRIT]

Public goes 9-0.

Good, I like my chances tomorrow. If a coin lands on tails, chances are next flip it will land heads right?

[BigDofBA]

Public goes 9-0.

The public was on the White Sox, Rays, and Diamondbacks?

I've never really bought into the "public". We're all the public. Sometimes the public wins. Sometimes the public loses.

Today looked like a bunch of landmines so I just did a 7 team parlay for $5 to keep my attention. I only won one game and that was Baltimore in extra innings. That $5 entertainment saved me a few hundred....

[No coincidences]

The public was on the White Sox, Rays, and Diamondbacks?

I've never really bought into the "public". We're all the public. Sometimes the public wins. Sometimes the public loses.

Today looked like a bunch of landmines so I just did a 7 team parlay for $5 to keep my attention. I only won one game and that was Baltimore in extra innings. That $5 entertainment saved me a few hundred....

I check four different sites.

White Sox -- yes (despite the huge swing in favor of Boston)
Rays -- no. Pretty split.
D'Backs -- yes.

1st and 3rd weren't huge. Right in the 55/45 range. The four I listed were without question.

I'm not saying we aren't "the public." I'm saying I make my way predominantly betting against games the public likes. Nights like these rarely happen -- a clean sweep for all intents and purposes (or, at least, not one victory for the books).

[BigDofBA]

I check four different sites.

White Sox -- yes (despite the huge swing in favor of Boston)
Rays -- no. Pretty split.
D'Backs -- yes.

1st and 3rd weren't huge. Right in the 55/45 range. The four I listed were without question.

I'm not saying we aren't "the public." I'm saying I make my way predominantly betting against games the public likes. Nights like these rarely happen -- a clean sweep for all intents and purposes (or, at least, not one victory for the books).

It seems like nights like these are happening more than normal this year but that may just be my perception. I get where you're coming from though, I play more favorites than you but we have similar styles.

Maybe we are giving line makers too much credit or maybe they're getting worse. Maybe they're just fvcking with us. I have no idea.

They haven't adjusted on the Royals, Indians, Red Sox, As, Mariners, and Cubs. It took them forever to adjust to the Cardinals, Astros, and Twins.

20 cent line moves are an instant fade. Fade these and you'll win like 65-70% of the time....line moves in general mean less and less. The opener is the most important number it seems.

I don't know. I had a horrible first 2 months. Then I caught fire and now I'm in another slump. Ironically, when I caught fire I didn't pay much attention to the line movement, "sharp" lines, "public" lines, etc....I just bet with my heart, head, and feel for how teams were playing. I had momentum going and it felt like every game I picked was going to win and it did. Now the opposite is happening. Funny how streaky this is....

Sometimes I think we make this more complicated that it is and we let the numbers screw with our heads. I just want to get back to even.

I'm really ready for football season so I can stop betting MLB until the playoffs.

[No coincidences]

20 cent line moves are an instant fade. Fade these and you'll win like 65-70% of the time....line moves in general mean less and less. The opener is the most important number it seems.

I really wish I had the data to back me up here, because I agree. It's been an absolute huge money maker. Problem is, every time a poster says, "prove it," I can't. I just know the 20+ cent line moves have been the kiss of death if you're on the team following the steam.

[No coincidences]

CLE -115 (23U to win 20)

Last bet of the year in bases if it loses.

[No coincidences]

Baseball comes down to 2-out hitting. Period. That's all it is, really. You either get clutch two-out hits or you don't.

Unfortunately, that also means your bets often come down to a coin flip.

[BigDofBA]

CLE -115 (23U to win 20)

Last bet of the year in bases if it loses.

Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

GL

[No coincidences]

Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

GL

Chris Young.

[mngambler]

Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

GL

[ex50warrior]

Baseball comes down to 2-out hitting. Period. That's all it is, really. You either get clutch two-out hits or you don't.

Unfortunately, that also means your bets often come down to a coin flip.

You may be right. But that's why its tough to justify the tilt bet after a frustrating day.

I've done it more often than I care to admit--in sports, blackjack, craps, and the stock market.

Hope you have better luck than I usually had.

[blackeyeshamus]

Sweet sassy molassy, NC.
Good luck, man. Stack em and cash em!

[BigDofBA]

The Indians have an uncanny ability of hitting into double plays and then stranding guys in scoring position or leaving them on base.

Every time I watch this team they seem to have tons of guys on base every inning but they always have little to show for it.

[tatddy]

Chris Heston is now 11-5.

Chris Heston.

Give me a fvcking break.

I'm interested to hear what about his performance indicated a regression. You watch the games so no need to get into the stats.

Dave R really taught the kid how to pitch and he's basically single-handedly saved the Giants season. If anything that line on SF was soft.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Coin just loves be contrarian to the death. That and his hatred for small market or historically bad teams like Oak, KC, Stros doing well. I know Chris Young and scary to back and no prize but he is 5-1 on road this year with a whip under 1.00. On flipside win or lose your really putting $ on a shit team with a avg pitcher at best who's been terrible in recent home starts? No way any work was put into fading Kc other than fading public /contrarian angle I see.

[leetreaper]

"Watching games"

[tatddy]

"Watching games"

Nearly all of Chris Heston's stats are above league avg and he's got a top 10 offense behind him so there was no need to get into that debate to address No Coin's point. So not sure what your point is here. Some of us actually enjoy watching sports.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Just frustrating watching this guy do same shit every year. I just see a disturbing pattern where he hates winners. Last few years Oak one of winniest teams in mlb over large sample size. Killed in run differential, runs scored , always solid pitching but they were always just "lucky" and had a horseshoe up their ass according to Coin. Same with Cards and the LepreCard crap one best if not THE best org in mlb who find ways to win.....Yeah that's what winners and good teams do lol.

Just think Coin is too smart for this shit but if he wants to make 20 more threads thru month of Aug whining about public winning backing good teams while he's losing betting shit like Cleveland more power to him I guess. Some people love misery!

[leetreaper]

Nearly all of Chris Heston's stats are above league avg and he's got a top 10 offense behind him so there was no need to get into that debate to address No Coin's point. So not sure what your point is here. Some of us actually enjoy watching sports.

If you are not sure why do you reply? It was a completely dif. point of course...

[Big Bear]

any leans for the later games fellas?

[leetreaper]

Just frustrating watching this guy do same shit every year. I just see a disturbing pattern where he hates winners. Last few years Oak one of winniest teams in mlb over large sample size. Killed in run differential, runs scored , always solid pitching but they were always just "lucky" and had a horseshoe up their ass according to Coin. Same with Cards and the LepreCard crap one best if not THE best org in mlb who find ways to win.....Yeah that's what winners and good teams do lol.

Just think Coin is too smart for this shit but if he wants to make 20 more threads thru month of Aug whining about public winning backing good teams while he's losing betting shit like Cleveland more power to him I guess. Some people love misery!

He was calling CARDINALS AT HOME lucky vs freaking Cubs, there's no help unfortunately...

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yeah Cards have always owned Cubs wherever. Just not time of year in long run to be fading surging teams especially best ones in gm and hoping for good results. Took KC tt ov 3.5 myself and fukking Bauer really lol?? Hey win or lose I just couldn't find anything to get excited over a bad Tribe team been highly overrated including pitching all season. Maybe lighting strikes tonight and Bauer holds up Tribe wins. I don't like betting on lightning though

[leetreaper]

Tribe score on an error lol...priceless

[blackeyeshamus]

Tribe batting .133 with bases loaded in 2015.