Harvard leans

chrisharvard01 · 04-07-09, 04:31 PM

04/07: 2-4
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

not a good night.

I continue my totals losing streak

1) LAD/SAN DIEGO
SD (+103) win
SD -1.5 (+200) win
I pick San Diego here because I believe the Dodgers win previously was a fluke, and that YOUNG is a great young pitcher. Watch out for line drives, YOUNG!!! The run line here is a long shot, I just can't pass it up at +200. I am a big fan of WOLF as well, but he's not as sharp as he used to be.

2) WASHINGTON/FLORIDA
WASH (+135) lose- olsen got rocked. how pathetic. cabrera is still worse.
UNDER 8.5 (+110) lose
Olsen pitched for the Marlins for a few years-- FLOR could pick him apart tonight but I think Olsen is a good pitcher and I'm willing to take a chance on him. If the Nats can actually get some productivity out of their power hitters (and Milledge doesn't f!ckin drop catches) Nationals can avoid being embarassed again.
The ump for this game is something like 15-15 O/U last year. Could go either way; but the guy likes to call strikes.

3) DETROIT/TORONTO
DET (+101) lose- bullpen coughs up a 9th inning win for TOR
I pick DETROIT because I think PURCEY is garbage...Just a personal preference, lets see if he can prove me wrong tonight! JACKSON is not VERLANDER (another garbage pitcher IMO) and I back him going up against this red hot TORONTO team.

4) OAKLAND/LAA
LAA (-110) lose
The red hot ANGELS, off a shut out last night to face the A's again tonight...
MOSELEY is not the sharpest tool in the shed for the Angels. I pick LAA because although CAHILL looks impressive so far, I say he gets rocked tonight. God only knows what MOSELEY will do, but I feel he can do the job. The line movement on this one got my attention. I really wanted to fade CAHILL but LAA opened at -130... Now they're -110, so I took it

Good Luck

chrisharvard01 · 04-08-09, 12:11 AM

ouch!

chrisharvard01 · 04-09-09, 11:22 AM

04/09: 1-1-1
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

Steering clear of totals today, I've had enough punishment for one week.

There are however two NL leans I just can't pass on;

1) NYM/CINCINATTI lose
NYM -120 1st 5
I like fading ARROYO, who seems to perform off and on. PEREZ is a great pitcher in the Mets arsenal this season. I like the 1st 5 because I could see the Mets bullpen possibly giving up runs. CINCI has some heavy hitters, but I think PEREZ can hold of BABE BRUCE and company.

2) LAD/SAN DIEGO push
LAD -150 1st 5
-150 sucks, but KERSHAW for all the right reasons. This one is a "forum favorite", but I love this play.

Play ball!

chrisharvard01 · 04-09-09, 11:34 AM

Two sweeps to start the season???

3) CLEVELAND/TEXAS win
TEXAS -120 1st 5
PAVANO sucks! CLEVELAND doesn't "owe us" for sucking thus far; they continue to get pounded by this offensive texas team this afternoon. MCCARTHY isn't the most solid pitcher in the rangers bullpen, but he is much better than PAVANO, IMO.

gridiron guru · 04-09-09, 11:49 AM

leaning the other way in that Cleveland/Texas game

chrisharvard01 · 04-09-09, 12:36 PM

ARROYO is looking just as I expected. I thought PEREZ had this 3rd inning wrapped up, then he walked 2, gave up a run...then the Reds take the lead on a 3 run blast from VOTTO. Unreal!!!!

Most guys around here are too, guru. GL to you anyways!

chrisharvard01 · 04-09-09, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by chrisharvard01

Two sweeps to start the season???

3) CLEVELAND/TEXAS
TEXAS -120 1st 5
PAVANO sucks! CLEVELAND doesn't "owe us" for sucking thus far; they continue to get pounded by this offensive texas team this afternoon. MCCARTHY isn't the most solid pitcher in the rangers bullpen, but he is much better than PAVANO, IMO.

PAVANO rocked for 5 ER 1st inning

chrisharvard01 · 04-11-09, 09:46 AM

04/11: 1-1
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

1) MINNESOTA/CHICAGO WS win
CHICAGO WS (even) 1st 5

LIRIANO v COLON. Big fan of COLON as I think he is solid. CWS haven't been hitting as I had hoped so far this season, but i'm looking for the sox to make quick work of LIRIANO by the 3rd

chrisharvard01 · 04-11-09, 04:55 PM

Nice work, COLON!

Looking to see if there's any value in the night games...

Unofficial leans: (leans not to be considered official leans or plays)

1) NYM/FLORIDA
New York Mets (+125)
Looking at the NYM because I think NOLASCO is sh!t... some might say the same about HERNANDEZ-- I think he is solid... but can I fade the red hot marlins at home? The marlins line up has gotten awfully comfortable with sending pitches to the upper deck!

2) P. Williams/W. Wright (Boxing)
Williams (-200), KO R3
Wright has been out of boxing, how many years? (think PACQUIO v DE LA HOYA-- wright is past his prime- he's done for)... Wright has defeated Sugar Shane, and proved he can hang in his loss to Bernard Hopkins. Still, I expect WILLIAMS to beat this guy down. WILLIAMS wins his fights by knocking the other fighter into next week. Wright won his best fights by UD. There will be no decision tonight.

going to think these over, have less than 30 min to pull the trigger on the Mets... probably stay away

chrisharvard01 · 04-11-09, 05:18 PM

Scratch this play; it just disappeared from my book, WTF? it doesn't start for another 5 mintues!

Added:

2) NYM/FLORIDA
New York Mets (+130) 1st 5
NOLASCO allowed five runs over six innings against the nationals... this mets club is NOT the nationals; another performance like that and mets win this one easily. David Wright is hitting .480 against NOLASCO, another stat I find very interesting. HERNANDEZ is 5-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 career road starts against the marlins.

I'll take a chance on this one.

chrisharvard01 · 04-11-09, 05:46 PM

04/11: 1-1
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

Added:

2) CHC C/MILWAUKEE lose
CHICAGO CUBS (-130) 1st 5
ZAMBRONO's shutout last year against this club was no fluke. BUSH struggles against the cubbies. Couldn't get the mets in time, so I'll take the cubs

cubs came with no offense, zambrono giving up much more this time around...

chrisharvard01 · 04-11-09, 11:43 PM

04/12: 1-0
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

1) SAN FRANCISCO/SAN DIEGO win
SAN DIEGO (even) 1st 5

I am drawn to the Padres (refuse to call them the pads, f!ckin gross dude!) tomorrow...

Lincecum? Yeah, he's solid-- but YOUNG is a phenom. I expect quiet bats in the 1st 5 of this one. I suspect Lincecum may suffer the cliff lee syndrome this year... Awesome last season; garbage, disappointment, and shame, the next.

My totals have been down right pathetic, but I'm taking this one UNDER 4.5 (projected) 1st 5. I think the UNDER would be a great play for the game, but bases seem to screw me most often with the bullpen, so I'll stick to the 1st 5 UNDER, whatever it may be

GL

Alexander · 04-11-09, 11:58 PM

what else fo you like for tomorrow?

chrisharvard01 · 04-12-09, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by Alexander

what else fo you like for tomorrow?

A few leans that are too rich for my blood:
(UNOFFICIAL)- would not play, too much chalk

1)ATLANTA- jurrjens (-200) 1st 5
2)CINCI- haren (-145) 1st 5
3)TAMPA BAY- shields (-140) 1st 5
4)BOSTON- beckett (-160) 1st 5

chrisharvard01 · 04-12-09, 05:54 PM

Padres get it done for me, this was wasn't even close

YOUNG is a f!!cking phenom. Thats twice this year already he has put dolla's in my pocket. Do not fade YOUNG!!!

CHC C/MILW
(unofficial)
DEMPSTER v SUPPAN
i'm considering MILW/CHC C - UNDER 5 1st 5

This number 5 just seems high to me. cubs struggled offensively in the 1st 5 last night, and I believe the supp is better than bush. Be that as it may, April 30th SUPPAN gave up 8 runs to this very cubs team.

I suspect the oddsmakers are counting on US to assume SUPPAN will get crushed. Will he?

Suppan is 6-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 19 lifetime starts against Chicago. His current ERA: 13.50

I will have to research this more. One thing I notice about DEMPSTER: he went 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five starts versus Milwaukee in 2008.

I couldn't take the brew crew to win this one, but after watching the cubs struggle against a mediocre bush, I'm staying far away from the cubbies!

chrisharvard01 · 04-13-09, 06:11 PM

Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

(I improved my season and managed to live to fight another day by taking the O's 1st 5, OAK +140/OAK BOS OVER 8 (.2 U parlay). These plays were not posted in this thread. Too bad. Tonight could have been huge, but a bad beat in the 8th inning of the DBACKS leaves me + .1 U for the season... how sad!)

1) ST LOUIS/ARIZONA
ARIZONA -110 (game) lose

WELLMEYER v DAVIS
I love this play.
Wellmeyer 0-3 against this club last year, and is off to a rocky start this season with 9.0 ERA in one game pitched. DAVIS is 4-5 against ST LOUIS.

I was going to stay away from this game, that is until I stumbled on this trend:

The Diamondbacks are 9-0 since April 27, 2007 when Doug Davis starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $940

As you may know, DAVIS' first start this season (a loss), DBACKS scored only 2 runs.

While this trend may seem obsurd, I'm taking it to the bank, which is why I'm playing the game instead of my usual 1H.

chrisharvard01 · 04-13-09, 09:26 PM

UGGGGHHHHH runners stranded on 3rd and 1st

How about DAVIS getting a HIT?!

stay tough DBACKS, run some offense here!!!!!!!!!

chrisharvard01 · 04-13-09, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by chrisharvard01

The Diamondbacks are 9-0 since April 27, 2007 when Doug Davis starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $940

this trend may be snapped tonight

chrisharvard01 · 04-14-09, 01:03 AM

04/14: 1-0
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

taking a shot on two tomorrow...

1) CHC WS/DETROIT
DETROIT (+110) game PPD

Taking the newbie PORCELLO here over DANKS. Am I f!ckin crazy?
It's no secret the White Sox give little offensive support... even if DANKS only gives up 2 runs, I can see this game going UNDER (unofficial) and it just might be enough to give rookie PORCELLO his first win this season. DANKS has pitched well his first outing. Big deal. This isn't CHICAGO, the white sox have a tough road game ahead of them tomorrow-- good luck silencing DET's bats.

2) CLEVELAND/KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY (-140) game win

DAVIES off to a great start this season-- I expect PAVANNO to get rocked again... How could anyone take this guy? IMO, very sh!!ty. When you see KC at -140, you know something must be off- and it's the indians pitching.

I hate to lay this much chalk on KANSAS CITY, but what can you do... KC in a position for a sweep after tomorrow

GL

chrisharvard01 · 04-14-09, 12:31 PM

It's raining in DETROIT... looks to rain well in to the night. PPD

looking now at CINCI/MILW

I like the reds, i like the UNDER (unofficial)

PER$I$TENT_LUCK · 04-14-09, 12:38 PM

I like the reds on the runline dude...

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 04:09 PM

I didn't play the reds, or the under last night...what a mistake. I wanted a parlay but couldn't pull the trigger.

1) PHILADELPHIA/WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON (+110) (game)

It's tough to take the nats after a dismal start of the season. But I like MARTIS, and BLANTON has pitched like sh!t to start this season... so has MARTIS, really (which is why this o/u is a whopping 10). It's really a toss-up here, but I think nats turn the tables tonight in washington.

2) PHILADELPHIA/WASHINGTON
UNDER 10 (game)
I don't like over plays, period. I can't wait to get "back to baseball" where teams throw shut outs and guys aren't hitting 3, 4 RBIs per game. Perhaps considering who is on the mound makes the over tempting... but I'll take the ten.

Son of a b!tch. PHI/WAS game cancelled due to rain.

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 06:33 PM

04/15: 1-0 (thread only)
Season: 13-10-1
Thread to date: 7-7-1

NYY almost ruined my night. Big loss on 1st 5, but they rallied and saved me convering the game. HOU covered 1st 5, then TOR 1st 5. 2 Teamer puts me in the green, praise be to God.

I've tied this play in on a 2 teamer... I just couldn't stay away. If the ASTROS blow the 1st 5 against PIT I'm toast and this play won't matter for me.

1) TORONTO/MINNESOTA
TORONTO (+125) 1st 5 win

RICHMOND vs BAKER. The veteran BAKER to pitch his first game of the season tonight. RICHMOND to pitch his second, after a no decision and somewhat shoddy performance against the indians.

I'm not sure what to expect from BAKER. He had a good season last year, but that was last year. Example: look at WANG and O PEREZ's openers this year and see that they got crushed!! Last year doesn't mean d!ck. When BAKER has a repeat season, then I will give him his dues.

Both BAKER nor RICHMOND have ever pitched against these clubs. Should be very interesting because I don't think MINN knows exactly what this kid has. If MORNEAU doesn't get hot, I think TORONTO could win, or at least cover this 1st 5 provided RICHMOND gets run support from the J's offense, which I believe he will.

RICHMOND has aknowledged "watching tapes" of BAKER to "develop his 4 pitch" arsenal. RICHMOND could get worked, who the hell knows- it's hard taking a rookie to the bank but yet I am doing it tonight with TORONTO and their explosive offense.

let's go J's

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 07:27 PM

RICHMOND getting worked

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by chrisharvard01

RICHMOND getting worked

Correction, GOING TO WORK

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 08:49 PM

Nice work RICHMOND. I needed this one to lift me well into the green.

Overrated BAKER + Overrated twins = win

On to tomorrow!

chrisharvard01 · 04-15-09, 11:01 PM

Friday's games looking much more ripe than tomorrow.

I will be staying away-- can't afford to back track now with any half ass plays.

I do have some unofficial NHL leans:

ANAHEIM to take the series vs san jose (NHL).

ANAHEIM is certainly the biggest sleeper in the playoffs and quite honestly, if they can get past SJ they have a legit shot at... dare i say, winning the stanely cup. Both ANA and SJ may be worth a unit to win the stanley cup; this series is between two of the best teams in west, IMO.

BOSTON does not hold any value for me- sorry. I think they easily get through MONTREAL, but after that who knows.

DET to dispatch COL like nobodys business.

It will be interesting to see how CHICAGO handles CALGARY... I think CHI takes this series.

GL to anyone playing bases tomorrow.