2009 MLB Side Value Plays

[accuscore]

This will be my thread of 2009 MLB moneyline picks that have side value.

Usually I prefer underdogs, but there aren't a lot of big dogs on the board today.

Atlanta -103
Florida -142
Arizona -146

Atlanta is my favorite pick. Moyer had a 6.55 ERA in two starts against Atlanta last year, while Jurrjens had a 3.33 ERA in four starts against Philly last year.

[DFoster]

Are you using accuscores side value picks based on their simulation based win percetage possibilty or are you using your own numbers here?

[accuscore]

Going with the AccuScore sims to get side value.

[accuscore]

2-1 yesterday. Today's picks:

Toronto -128
St Louis -152
Florida -132
Tampa Bay +138

Also, a game that isn't a side value play, but that I am leaning towards is Milwaukee -109 over the Giants. Yovani Gallardo was strong out of the gate last year, with a 1.88 ERA in four starts before going down for the season with an injury. Randy Johnson has gotten off to a slow start in the last three years, with his best April yielding a 4.71 ERA. I'm guessing the veteran lefty will take longer to get in to season form, which could be trouble against the Brewers offense today. Combine Gallardo's talent to shut down a weak Giants offense (no, I don't give them much credit for beating up on Jeff Suppan yesterday), and Johnson's slow start, and I love the value of the Brewers.

[accuscore]

2-2 yesterday, including winning Tampa Bay +138. Total is 4-3 for +81.27 units at 100 units per game.

Today's games:

LAD -141
CWS -152
Bos -144

On the Dodgers: Aside from the fact that I think Clayton Kershaw is going to have a breakout season, I love this pitching matchup. This is mainly due to Kevin Correia. Correia has a career 4.31 ERA as a reliever, but is worse as a starter, with a 4.78 ERA.

On the Red Sox: Matt Garza had a breakout year last year, but not against the Red Sox. In four starts against Boston, Garza had a 4.50 ERA. Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka had a 3.00 ERA in three starts against the Rays last year, creating a favorable matchup tonight.