2015 NCAA Dogpile

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-15, 08:44 PM

Puk was awful early and got the hook. Hopefully FLA pen can nail it down and give them a shot to rally again.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-22-15, 12:30 PM

2.22.15
Arizona +135
The Wildcats have split the first two games with Rice and head into this one with momentum after rallying for the win in the 9th yesterday off sloppy Rice defense. It's been an offensive series with 27 combined runs in the series. Rice won the opener 8-5 before Arizona returned the favor 7-6 yesterday. Rice's trademark pitching has been touched up by the Cats in this series, so there will be confidence for the Arizona batters again. Rice certainly will expect to comtinue to pound a leaky Arizona rotation. The home side send out Tyger Talley. He's 1-0 and had 9 Ks in his first start. He matches against Rice's Ricardo Salinas who has appeared in two games, one being a start. Salinas is the inexperienced Freshman, but his 1st start last Sunday against Texas was a stellar one. He went 6 IP and yielded no runs. He'll face a different beast today though with this Arizona offense clicking. They have scored at least six runs in six of seven games this season with five being their low output. If they can get a quality start from Talley, I think their offense will get to the Freshman from Rice and give the Cats a chance for another big win against a ranked team.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-22-15, 02:25 PM

Talley has been awful.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-08-15, 12:50 PM

3.8.15
TCU +110
Going strictly with my Horned Frogs here due to the pitching match-up. Preston Morrison for TCU. Walker Buehler for Vandy. Buehler is making his 1st extended start this season. He's solid, but Morrison is usually other worldly and will need to be to keep a good Vandy lineup down.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-08-15, 04:36 PM

Finally on the board with W. TCU wins it 4-2.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-08-15, 04:39 PM

Need to find pitching match-ups for UCLA-USC, but pretty likely to try the Trojans at +160. They have a magic bat up their asses in this little mini-tournament. Walkoff wins against two quality clubs in Vanderbilt and TCU.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-08-15, 08:56 PM

Damn forgot to check pitching. USC looks like they're going to win it too.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-15-15, 12:08 PM

3.15.15
West Virginia +190
I think a tidy price here for the visitors against Texas today. Both of the first two games of the series have gone to extra innings with the teams splitting those two. WV puts out Donato today who has been a solid starter with a 1.44 ERA. He pitches to contact with just one walk in 25+ innings. The bullpen though likely will be called upon as he doesn't regularly go deep into games as that 25 IP is over four starts. Longhorns tote out Hollingsworth who is better than his #s so far, a 4.50 ERA in three starts. He's been hit pretty hard with opponents battin .281 against him. Two of his three starts have been poor. While West Virginia is not one of the better Big 12 teams and Texas is expected to be in the title mix, the Mountaineers have some confidence from their ability to hit a good pitching staff and compete well this weekend. West Virginia should feel especially good after Saturday's game where they ran out 6-0, blew that lead, but rallied for the win in the 10th. That sort of confidence can carry over. If they can get to Hollingsworth early and get 5-6 solid innings from Donato, they might have a shot for another upset.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-15, 12:57 PM

Season Profit Margin: -2.35

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-15, 01:01 PM

4.4.15
USC @ -115
Trojans going for a clean sweep of Arizona. The Cats came into this series with a six game winning streak, but have been beaten in both the first two games of this series by a combined 17-7 margin. USC will put Hart on the mound against Talley for Arizona. Pretty similar pitchers by the numbers with Talley sporting about a half run higher ERA at just over 3.00. These are the top two offenses in the PAC-12 and the big difference has been pitching. USC ranks 2nd in the PAC-12 with a 2.26 ERA, while Arizona is 8th at 3.70. Their bullpen has already worked a bunch in this series. If Hart gives USC a solid start, I think the Trojans offense can stay hot here. If they knock around Talley early, that means more time against what might be a slightly tired pen.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-15, 06:06 PM

Wild game, but USC wins 10-9

EaglesPhan36 · 04-08-15, 01:23 PM

4.8.16
Columbia @ -115
Columbia on the road to battle St.John's. Both teams in the midst of lengthy winning streaks. Have not found info on the exact starters for today, but both will go to midweek guys or possible in Columbia's case to the Johhny All-Staff with several bullpen guys working today. That being said, I think the pitching is a wash likely. Columbia has a little bit better pop offensively and that could be a difference maker. This is not some weak Ivy League club either. They've already played a couple of very good teams on the road in Houston and UCF out of conference. Houston has fallen off, but they were a Top 5 club when the season started and Columbia took 2/4 from them. UCF did dominate Columbia in a three game set, but they are a Top 15 club currently with a really good offense, so nothing to be off-put on those losses. Columbia has won three in a row in this series that was dominated by St.John's up until a few years ago. Mid-week games can be hard to gauge, but I think Columbia has the chip on their shoulder as the "small school" here again and could exercise that into extending their win streak over the Red Storm. This is a solid club with back-2-back titles and post-season appearances and they need all the OOC wins they can get even if St.John's isn't the strongest of clubs.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-08-15, 06:14 PM

Season Profit Margin: 3-3 [-0.35]
Columbia wins 5-4.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-09-15, 04:34 PM

4.9.15
Missouri @ -105
Two teams on opposite tracks. Mizzou is ranked in the Top 35 & comes in off a series win against #4 Florida. Tennessee is just 4-8 in SEC play & 14-14 overall. Cox comes out of the bullpen to start for the Vols. The lefty is solid with a .238 BAA & they really needed a better 3rd starter, so here he is. Miles for Mizzou is good, but not overpowering. He does sport a .210 BAA The Tigers do have the more versatile bullpen with a 3.50 ERA in league play compared to 5.59 for Tennessee. Both offenses are in the bottom half of the SEC production wise with just six more runs scored for Mizzou in 12 league games, 60-54. Huge fielding edge to the Tigers at .981 in the SEC, ranking 2nd. Vols lead in errors with 22 & a .949 fp is worst in the SEC. Makings of a tight game, but I like the visitors with confidence and the better intangibles to win tight games.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-10-15, 05:42 PM

Season Profit Margin: 3-4 [-1.40]
Mizzou lost 5-2.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-10-15, 05:50 PM

4.10.15
N.C. State +145
This line looks inflated to me with N.Carolina standing a stout -175 as they open this key ACC series for both teams in Chapel Hill. This is a very even match-up, so getting a solid dog price on the Wolfpack is worth a roll here. State will send out Cory Wilder, while UNC counters with Zac Gallen. Wilder is 2-4 with a 3.41 ERA, but a terrific BAA of .159. Gallen is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a BAA of .243. Both have good swing & miss stuff. Wilder's problem is putting the WILD in his name with too many walks. If he keeps the walks down, then the Pack have a quality start and chance to win. Offensively, State is 3rd in the ACC with .299 team BA, while UNC is at .280. NC State has scored 12 more runs than the Heels in two less games. The key again here is Wilder. If he keeps walks to a minimum, this is a tasty price on what looks more like a pick 'em game.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-10-15, 08:38 PM

4.10.15
Oregon +165
Another price gone wild as this looks like it's become a pretty public pay on Oregon State in this Civil War series. OSU puts out Andrew Moore who continues to be spectacular with a 1.81 ERA and 3-1 mark this season. He'll battle Cole Irvin who is coming back from Tommy John surgery and seems to be getting more confident and stronger. He still sports a 3.52 ERA so far this season. Both teams have struggled to score runs. OSU has scored 187 runs, Oregon 189 in three more games. The Beavers hit better at .284 while Oregon has scuffled at .253. The Ducks have yet to win a PAC-12 series and it's been a real disappointing season due to injuries to their pitching staff and their offense from a team that was expected to contend for the title. Both teams need wins. OSU is 5-4 in conference play, Oregon is 2-7. All signs point to Oregon State, but another line that I noticed went out of wack tonight (Michigan) found the supposed better team getting crushed on the road by a last place Penn State squad. I'll give it a whirl on the home standing Ducks with the price gone wild.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-11-15, 12:34 PM

Season Profit Margin: 4-5 [-0.75]
Absolutely insane how those public picks lose - Oregon scores twice in the 9th and beats Oregon State 3-2 last night after only scoring an unearned run during the game in trailing 2-1. Love it. NC State lost a tough 2-1 decision to UNC, so split and earned a little profit yesterday. Some games to comb over for later, OU-TEX and also AZ-ASY & UCLA-USC I will be looking at.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-11-15, 12:50 PM

4.11.15
Oklahoma +100
The Sooners won the opener of their weekend series with Texas 3-2 in extra innings. The Longhorns continue to struggle to score runs and they have lost eight of their last nine. The win was big for OU after they were blasted by Oklahoma State mid-week. The Sooners send out Alec Hansen today while the Horns counter with Kacey Clemens. A big pitching edge to start for OU. Hansen has been a hoss since Big 12 play started with a 2-1 mark and a 2.11 ERA in three starts. He has 27 Ks in 21.1 IP. His BAA is .176. Clemens has been poor this season, even more so in conference play as he sports a 6.48 ERA in Big 12 play in two starts. He did have a quality start against Kansas State, but was beat up early by a potent Oklahoma State offense. The Horns offense struggles with just a .235 average in league play and 30 runs scored in ten games. OU counters with a .284 BA and 48 runs scored in ten games. All-in-all, if Hansen pitches along the lines of how he has this season, OU should feel confident in getting to Clemens who has struggled against the better offenses he has faced.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-11-15, 08:34 PM

Arizona State -150
Arizona is the competition as ASU hosts this series. Pitching favors ASU with Seth Martinez and his 2.52 ERA against Hamlin and his 4.26 ERA. Arizona leads the PAC-12 with a .327 BA, while ASU is 3rd with a .295 BA. Arizona has scored a ton more runs, 236 to 165. Arizona has beaten the downtrodden in the PAC-12, but come off being swept by USC at home. ASU has been stout at home with series wins in all four PAC-12 series and they beat Top 5 team TCU in a three game set at home as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-12-15, 10:37 AM

Season Profit Margin: 5-6 [-0.75]
Oklahoma lost 4-1, Arizona State won 5-4.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-14-15, 01:18 PM

4.14.15
Louisville -145
The Cards are ranked 4th in the country as they travel to take on Ohio State in an OOC mid-week game. It's a bigger game for Ohio State as the Buckeyes have not been tested outside of conference play much this season. Louisville will be by far the toughest team they have faced. The Buckeyes are 3rd in the B10, a game behind both Illinois and Iowa, but have yet to play either team. The come in a little flat after losing 2/3 to UNLV over the weekend. The Cards meanwhile have been red hot in the ACC. They completed their 6th series win in a row in conference play by beating Duke 2/3. They have been especially impressive with a road sweep of Virginia & Notre Dame. We'll see junior Anthony Kidston for LOU today. He's had a rough season with a 5.88 ERA in eight appearances, seven of those starts. He's been hit hard at times to the tune of a .299 BAA with walks a major issue. He has issued 23 in 33.2 IP. His stuff though can be dominant as evidenced with his 39 Ks. He's a good, experienced pitcher who simply has lacked the consistency he had last year. OSU counters with freshman Adam Niemyer who makes is 1st collegiate start after appearing in seven games out of the bullpen this season. He has a 1.80 ERA and a solid ..231 BAA. That's a lot of pressure to put on the kid though for his first start against a national power. Kidston may not be all that he was last year, but he gives Louisville 4-6 IP and normally keeps them in the game despite that lofty ERA. Louisville can thrive if Kidston gives them that by turning it over to a versatile, deep and dominant bullpen. Ohio State has a good pen too, but not quite the volume of quality arms that the Cards have. Offensively, it's about a wash with similar team BAs in the low 270s and just 22 runs separating the two teams with OSU playing three less games. Going with the better team that has been beating better quality opponents all season here.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-14-15, 09:09 PM

Season Profit Margin: 5-7 [-2.20]
Tough loss. 2-1 Louisville drops it to Ohio State.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-16-15, 06:11 PM

4.16.15
South Carolina +160
Two teams on losing skids meet here with the Gamecocks hosting Vanderbilt. Vandy is still in much better shape though as a top 5 team in the country, but they did just drop a series at home to Ole Miss. That was a mediocre at-best Ole Miss club that was hitting a league worst .219 in SEC league games. The Commodores have dropped four of their last five overall. On the road, they are 6-1 in the SEC, but those wins came against bottom feeders Auburn and Georgia. For South Carolina, it's been a perplexing season that started with them nationally ranked, but not in the midst of losing six of their last nine games. They also lost one of their best starters to a season ending elbow injury that forces one of their best relievers into the rotation tonight. Vince Fiori, a lefty, will take on perhaps the best pitcher in D1 in Carson Fulmer. Fulmer is a strikeout machine with 81 Ks in 57.2 IP and a 1.89 ERA. Fiori has a 2.45 ERA in 19 relief appearances, but was starting in the Cape Cod League last year. His coach says he's been waiting to start all year. He gets his chance in maybe the biggest series of the season for the Gamecocks. Vanderbilt has a lofty team BA of .300 on the season, but in SEC play they are in the .260s with South Carolina closer to their season average in the high .250s. Given Vandy's recent struggles, South Carolina should feel they have a shot to get some momentum here if Fiori can give them some solid innings. This likely will be a tight contest where runs are few. Big hits will be the key. Taking a shot on the dog here in a game that could define the rest of their season.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-15, 02:16 PM

4.17.15
Arizona State +105
Sun Devils on the road to visit Washington. Huskies send their best out with Noah Bremer toting the rubber. He has a 1.80 ERA and .199 BAA this season. He's not overpowering with just 23 Ks in 50 IP, but he's truly a pitcher with good control who hits his spots. Very impressive for a Freshman. He'll need to against ASU's offense that ranks 2nd with a .302 BA in the PAC-12. They have had some issues at times delivering the big hits though with just 185 runs scored which is 7th in the conference. Washington's offense is inconsistent with a .262 BA and 171 runs scored. They face Seth Martinez. Martinez has a 2.84 ERA and a .220 BAA. Walks are his problem when he struggles. He has 18 in 44 IP. Both teams have pretty solid bullpens and those could be the difference makers tonight as both of these starters go maybe 5-6 IP on average. Most of UW's games started by Bremer come down to execution/bullpen in the late innings. I think ASU is a shade better in those areas and I like the plus money.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-15, 06:24 PM

Write-up completed now for ASU-Washington.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-15, 01:06 PM

Season Profit Margin: 5-9 [-4.20]
Rough stretch right now. Arizona State blew the opener in impressive fashion. Rallied back from an early deficit to go up 6-4 headed to the 7th. Gave up the lead 6-6 and then took it back twice late, only to blow it again in the 8th for good as they lost 9-7. ASU won Saturday 4-3. Rubber game today is likely my bet. Waiting to see who Washington will put on the hill. Looking at ASU + money again. Their 3rd starter is nothing special, but he's got the experience of doing it every week. Lillek with a 3.83 ERA. Walks a big problem for him. Washington though has used a ton of different guys for their #3 spot behind Bremer & Davis and none are great options. So waiting it out to see who that will be.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-15, 02:19 PM

Washington starts Schmitten who is making his 4th start with 9 overall appearances. 4.43 ERA, .274 BAA.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-15, 02:19 PM

4.19.15
Arizona State +110

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-15, 06:01 PM

This fukkin ASU bullpen. Another blown lead. This one was 5-3 going into the 8th. Now 5-5 in the 9th.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-15, 06:34 PM

Finally a protected lead and win.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-20-15, 10:31 AM

Season Profit Margin: 6-9 [-3.10]

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-15, 06:01 PM

4.22.15
Arizona -130
An odd "out of conference" game between two conference foes as Arizona hosts Arizona State. Teams do this all the time, but it still strikes me as weird - but it's an important schedule filler for the Cats especially. They need quality wins. They get ASU in successive mid-week games that could go a long way to deciding their postseason fate. These are the top team teams batting-average wise in the PAC-12, but there is a big differene in run scoring. Arizona has scored about 60 more runs this season. That could be a big boost in this type of game where mid-week starters likely won't go deep and this turns into an offensive slugfest. Arizona turns to Nathan Bannister who put in a solid performance in his 1st start of the season on Saturday in a 3-1 win over Oregon State. He went 6.1 IP there and is expected to pitch this weekend against Cal, so he won't pitch deep in this one. Still, a good start is big for the Cats to not have to dig out of a hole. Graybill will go for ASU. He's only pitched six innings total this season and is in his 1st season as a pitcher at this level after starting his ASU career as an infielder. This will be a markedly harder task than he faced against New Mexico State last week where he showed some skill with three no-hit innings. Still, Arizona can be a real juggernaut on offense at home. These two teams have faced off three teams, all in Phoenix, where ASU took two of three and outscored 'Zona 20-18. ASU has been a quality ream all-season, even on the road, but they have often played a ton of close games and extra innings affairs of late. I saw some sketchy bullpen work from this Sun Devils club in backing them last week and I'll hope that continues more today. If Arizona can get to Graybill early, I think they can hold on and let their offense carry them today.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-24-15, 03:45 PM

4.24.15
Texas Tech +125
Pivotal Big 12 series. Last home series for Tech who trail both OU & OSU in the standings by just one game. OSU sends out Perrin. Tech counters with Moseley who has been good in Big 12 play with a .189 BAA. State still sports the more stout offense with 82 runs in 15 league games compared to 66 for Tech. Should note OSU has not played on the road much. They did get a nice series win over TCU, but lost 2/3 on the road last time to cellar dweller Kansas. Key tonight is Moseley's control. If he keeps that # down, Tech has a good chance and can turn things over late to Taylor & Moreno in the pen. Tech needs the opener with Freeman pitching for OSU Saturday, one of D1's best.