early futures

[EXhoosier10]

Updated with old lines from Jan 11's open to today, March 11's lines. These are the best lines available from the 5 books I use



Team Name............ WSold... WSold. WSnow... WSnow.... Change.. Projected Wins (Avg Offshore)
Washington Nationals. +1000... 9.1%.. +650.... 13.3%.... 4.24%... Team Wins.... 93
Los Angeles Dodgers.. +750.... 11.8%. +850.... 10.5%.... -1.24%.. Team Wins.... 92
St. Louis Cardinals.. +1600... 5.9%.. +1300... 7.1%..... 1.26%... Team Wins.... 87
Los Angeles Angels... +1200... 7.7%.. +1400... 6.7%..... -1.03%.. Team Wins.... 87
Seattle Mariners..... +2000... 4.8%.. +1600... 5.9%..... 1.12%... Team Wins.... 86
Boston Red Sox....... +1600... 5.9%.. +1600... 5.9%..... 0%...... Team Wins.... 85
Chicago Cubs......... +2200... 4.3%.. +1800... 5.3%..... 0.92%... Team Wins.... 82
San Francisco Giants. +1800... 5.3%.. +2000... 4.8%..... -0.5%... Team Wins.... 83
Detroit Tigers....... +1200... 7.7%.. +2000... 4.8%..... -2.93%.. Team Wins.... 84
Chicago White Sox.... +4000... 2.4%.. +2200... 4.3%..... 1.91%... Team Wins.... 81
Toronto Blue Jays.... +2800... 3.4%.. +2500... 3.8%..... 0.4%.... Team Wins.... 83
San Diego Padres..... +4500... 2.2%.. +2500... 3.8%..... 1.67%... Team Wins.... 84
Cleveland Indians.... +3300... 2.9%.. +2500... 3.8%..... 0.9%.... Team Wins.... 84
Pittsburgh Pirates... +3300... 2.9%.. +2800... 3.4%..... 0.51%... Team Wins.... 84
Oakland Athletics.... +4000... 2.4%.. +2900... 3.3%..... 0.89%... Team Wins.... 81
Baltimore Orioles.... +2500... 3.8%.. +3300... 2.9%..... -0.9%... Team Wins.... 82
New York Yankees..... +2800... 3.4%.. +3500... 2.8%..... -0.67%.. Team Wins.... 81
New York Mets........ +3300... 2.9%.. +3500... 2.8%..... -0.16%.. Team Wins.... 82
Kansas City Royals... +2500... 3.8%.. +3500... 2.8%..... -1.07%.. Team Wins.... 80
Miami Marlins........ +4000... 2.4%.. +4000... 2.4%..... 0%...... Team Wins.... 81
Texas Rangers........ +4500... 2.2%.. +6000... 1.6%..... -0.53%.. Team Wins.... 77
Milwaukee Brewers.... +4000... 2.4%.. +6000... 1.6%..... -0.8%... Team Wins.... 78
Tampa Bay Rays....... +6600... 1.5%.. +6600... 1.5%..... 0%...... Team Wins.... 79
Cincinnati Reds...... +5000... 2%.... +8500... 1.2%..... -0.8%... Team Wins.... 77
Houston Astros....... +15000.. 0.7%.. +9000... 1.1%..... 0.44%... Team Wins.... 75
Atlanta Braves....... +2800... 3.4%.. +12000.. 0.8%..... -2.62%.. Team Wins.... 73
Minnesota Twins...... +15000.. 0.7%.. +15000.. 0.7%..... 0%...... Team Wins.... 71
Colorado Rockies..... +12500.. 0.8%.. +15000.. 0.7%..... -0.13%.. Team Wins.... 71
Arizona Diamondbacks. +11000.. 0.9%.. +15000.. 0.7%..... -0.24%.. Team Wins.... 71
Philadelphia Phillies +15000.. 0.7%.. +32000.. 0.3%..... -0.35%.. Team Wins.... 68

[mlb]

Ex - any idea who you are biting on for futures yet - who are your value teams that you think are going to win the division?

baseball is here!

[EXhoosier10]

Ex - any idea who you are biting on for futures yet - who are your value teams that you think are going to win the division?
baseball is here!

I have a pretty good outlay of bets that i've made this spring.

Was ........... Divison Champ .. 0.75u .. @ -300... 0.25u
-- Weak division, best team in baseball = shouldn't be an issue.
Pit ........... Divison Champ .. 0.5u ... @ +275... 1.38u
-- not much depth for StL this year. Waino could be hurt and Rosenthal has some mechanical to work through from last year; Team is getting old, etc. Lots of depth on Pit and if Kang does well, Pit shouldn't have a problem taking the division. Also tons of depth on this team. Cubs are a non-contender for the division if Baez doesn't hit .250. As a cubs fan, i'm excited, but tempering expectations this year. Line should be closer to +150 instead of +275.
Cle ........... Divison Champ .. 0.75u .. @ +240... 1.8u
-- Again, tigers are old, cleveland's staff has tons of upside. White Sox are borderline WC contenders if an injury hits any of their 5 stars. line should be +150ish.
Was ........... cs champ ....... 0.5u ... @ +325... 1.63u
Lad ........... cs champ ....... 0.5u ... @ +475... 2.38u
-- Was and LAD should be #1 and #2 seeds in the playoffs. It wouldn't shock me if both these teams meet in the NLCS
Bos ........... WS champ ....... 0.2u ... @ +1600.. 3.2u
-- I actually don't love this bet, but lots of young wildcards and the depth to trade for a star.
Cle ........... WS champ ....... 0.1u ... @ +3300.. 3.3u
-- Same as above.. They should be in the thick of the Division race with lots of upside in their staff. Any one of those guys could be the #2 behind Kluber come playoff time.
Oak ........... WS champ ....... 0.1u ... @ +4000.. 4u
-- Don't love this bet either. They have a few injuries to start the season which doesn't help, but LAA could get old in a hurry and struggle leaving this the #3 team in the division to gain some ground.
Pit ........... WS champ ....... 0.1u ... @ +3300.. 3.3u
-- see above. I expect them to be in the thick of the division race
SD ............ WS champ ....... 0.07u .. @ +4850.. 3.2u
-- took this bet after the shields signing. Only took it because of the stale line; I don't expect SD to make the playoffs, but what the hell
Was ........... WS champ ....... 0.22u .. @ +1000.. 2.2u
-- Another stale line; took this immediately after Scherzer signing before it moved to +600ish. This, IMO, is the top team in baseball
Chw ........... u81.5 Wins ..... 0.73u .. @ +115... 0.84u
-- not buying the hype. They have so many holes. An injury to one of their stars means big problems and a sub .500 season. If they stay helathy, though, this will probably lose. +115 gives me some leeway.
Bos ........... o86 Wins ....... 1.05u .. @ -105... 1u
-- no comment. Wish i didn't make this bet
TB ............ o79.5 Wins ..... 1u ..... @ +140... 1.4u
TB ............ o79.5 Wins ..... 1u ..... @ +140... 1.4u
-- Originally this was going to be my big bet of the year when 5dimes was hanigng +140. Unfortunately the injury bug started to hit TB's starting staff and i might need to get lucky for them to pull this off in a tough division. I still don't hate this bet, but the +140 seems more fitting with the injuries.
Lucas Duda .... o23.5 HR ....... 0.58u .. @ -115... 0.5u
-- moving fenses in
Jacob DeGrom .. u10.5 W ........ 0.3u ... @ +130... 0.39u
-- pitchers get injured. +130 should be the odds that a pitcher doesn't get hurt in a year, not that they don't get hurt. That being said, he's never thrown more than 140 innings and i'm getting big +odds on a pitcher that's on a losing team to get under 11 wins. Easy. (last year, sabathia, moore, jose fernandez all were plus odds on their respective under. vegas has been better this year, but there are still spots to take advantage).

[EXhoosier10]

A few more futures


Orioles do not win the AL East........ 2.87u @ -410 = 0.7u
- Lots of contenders in this division. I think this staff is the worst of the lot. They don't have the offense to compete, either, unless Davis pulls a 50hr/.250avg season.
White Sox do not win the AL Central... 3.00u @ -300 = 1.0u
- Same reasoning as last post.
Royals do not win the AL Central...... 1.40u @ -600 = 0.3u
- Royals should be worse than the Sox, this year. They'll need Moose and HOsmer to really step up to replace all of their lost talent. Basically this is another bet on the Indians.

[mlb]

nice - I like some of your plays and I like the cliff notes reasoning behind them. I am still waiting to punch mine in....seeing where I can spread them over - Like to make as many as I can on credit - that way it's not tying up so much capital.

[EXhoosier10]

The player props i'm playing this year.


Tim Lincecum..... u10 W...... 2.3u.... @ -115 = 2u
- He's going to start the year in the rotation, but will he stay there with two capable 5th starters working in the pen (Petit & Vogelsong)? I don't think so.
Jered Weaver..... u160.5 K... 1.15u.... @ -115 = 1u
Jered Weaver..... o3.30 ERA.. 0.575u... @ -115 = 0.5u
Jered Weaver..... u13.5 W.... 0.5u..... @ +115 = 0.575u
-- Theme here is to fade Jered weaver in 2015.
Andrew Cashner... u10.5 W.... 1u....... @ +105 = 1.05u
-- he's good when healthy, but not always healthy. He's a strikeout pitcher who doesn't last deep into games. Padres infield is miserable and they have a terrible outfield defense... If he gets 20-25 starts, 11 wins isn't a guarantee.
Eric Hosmer...... o155.5 H... 1u....... @ +125 = 1.25u
-- Heavy plus odds to bet on a bounceback. THe line is low enough where he could miss a few games and still get there.
Adam Wainwright.. u195.5 K... 0.75u.... @ -125 = 0.6u
-- Age, health, and decrease in k ratio all trending in the wrong direction. -125 odds are rough, but i think the number is just too high to reach.
Dustin Pedroia... o161.5 H... 0.75u.... @ +115 = 0.8626u
-- Betting on a bounceback. He plays through a lot of injuries and apparently is healthy this spring training after minor wrist surgery.
Tyson Ross....... u195.5 K... 0.7476u.. @ -115 = 0.65u
-- injury risk. not terribly happy with this bet @ -115, but I thought it was a good idea at some point

Yasiel Puig.. -2 H vs Pablo Sandoval.. 1.05u.. @ -105 = 1u
-- This bet is Puig will end the season wtih 2 more hits than Panda. Puig should get more AB's this year in the #3 spot vs. panda in the #5 hole and I expect Puig to take another step forward this year.

[EXhoosier10]

My last prop, i swear. I somehow have 25% of my br on props this year. It shouldn't really be an issue since my br management shouldn't ever really leave me with > 10% of my br in play on any given day, but still somewhat disconcerting.

Angels and Dodgers combine for OVER 180.5 wins... 1.5u @ +115 = 1.58u
-- I expect both teams to make the playoffs and hopefully one of the two win 95. Obviously I expect the dodgers to do it, but both teams are capable.