I'm trying to figure out how, in an analysis of 2 teams, to account for a particular line. Say for example, you've decided team A has a great offense and a great bullpen, while team B has a crappy starter and crappy offense. So, team A is the favorite. Great.
How do you decide if team A is worth -125 or -175? Is it just by "feel" and experience? Or is there something more analytical that can be done. I know that if you put a bet on a -175 team, you think they'll win more than 63.6% of the time, but how do you decide if a team is simply a favorite, or if they're a favorite more than 63.6%?
How do you decide if team A is worth -125 or -175? Is it just by "feel" and experience? Or is there something more analytical that can be done. I know that if you put a bet on a -175 team, you think they'll win more than 63.6% of the time, but how do you decide if a team is simply a favorite, or if they're a favorite more than 63.6%?