what do u guys think of pads?

**Ganchrow** · 10-08-06, 11:43 AM

It does seem a little high. However, Carpenter has a high degree of volatility, and his performance factors into the final outcome much more than most pitchers. He has a high likelihood of having a 0 or 1 run outing, and also a higher than normal likelihood of having a mediocre outing for someone of his caliber. If he has a 0 or 1 run outing, St. Louis' likelihood of a win goes through the roof. If he doesn't, St. Louis goes down to big underdog status. But the line right now says St. Louis has a 64% chance of winning, and we see Carpenter's likelihood of a dominant start as significantly higher than that, so we'll take St. Louis here.

**bigboydan** · 10-08-06, 11:58 AM

I think it all could depend on how Larussa will protect Pulojs in that lineup against Peavy. That is probably one of the big keys to capping this game IMO

**Ganchrow** · 10-08-06, 12:52 PM

They actually have Woody Williams going tonight, Peavey tomorrow -- not that that is nearly as big of a downgrade as it might seem.

**Illusion** · 10-08-06, 05:36 PM

Williams has been real solid recently so I see great value with San Diego tonight.

**tacomax** · 10-08-06, 07:27 PM

Damn, Carpenter's a bit volatile today.

**bigboydan** · 10-08-06, 07:30 PM

I noticed that too Taco.

As I was telling owned earlier in another thread. Watch Carpenter's pitch count very closely if your live betting wagering.