staf's SDQL value bets

[staf]

Posted some plays in this thread:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2831496-mlb-situation-plays-sdql-p57.html

Started August 20th with post #1988 through yesterday August 26th with post #2150

I have 6 MLB queries and expect to make over 800 predictions per season with a 54% winning expectation.

MLB #1
SU: 701-497 (0.65, 58.5%) avg line: -116.9 / 103.4 on / against: +$16,791 / -$22,914 ROI: +10.7% / -16.0%

MLB #2
SU: 461-406 (0.22, 53.2%) avg line: 119.1 / -130.0 on / against: +$13,874 / -$18,590 ROI: +15.7% / -16.5%

MLB #3
SU: 461-321 (0.74, 59.0%) avg line: -125.8 / 110.9 on / against: +$9,371 / -$13,689 ROI: +8.6% / -14.8%

MLB #4
RL: 721-589 (0.25, 55.0%) avg line: -101.2 / -112.9 on / against: +$16,424 / -$23,888 ROI: +10.0 / -13.8%

MLB #5
SU: 1487-1263 (0.24, 54.1%) avg line: -104.0 / -108.7 on / against: +$23,308 / -$37,581 ROI: +7.0% / -11.0%

MLB #6
SU: 871-798 (0.13, 52.2%) avg line: 111.4 / -124.5 on / against: +$17,063 / -$26,101 ROI: +8.9% / -11.6%

I have 5 NBA queries and expect to make about 300 predictions per season with a 56% winning expectation against the spread.

NBA #1
ATS: 1184-932-35 (0.48, 56.0%)

NBA #2
ATS: 837-650-29 (0.39, 56.3%)

NBA #3
ATS: 548-405-13 (0.86, 57.5%)

NBA #4
ATS: 825-643-36 (0.70, 56.2%)

NBA #5
ATS: 429-296-14 (2.28, 59.2%)

I have 3 NCAAB queries and expect to make about 400 predictions per season with a 56% winning expectation against the spread.

NCAAB #1
ATS: 717-556-27 (0.91, 56.3%)

NCAAB #2
ATS: 506-368-15 (1.30, 57.9%)

NCAAB #3
ATS: 749-591-27 (1.21, 55.9%)

Overall I'm expecting to make over 1500 predictions a year with a 55% winning expectation and about 150 units of profit.

[staf]

5-2 +3.09 units yesterday
21-10 +11.28 units overall

MLB #1
Los Angeles Angels -141

MLB #4
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135
San Diego Padres +1.5 -135
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +150

MLB #5
Milwaukee Brewers -140

[Enjoi]

Good stuff dude! Let's finish off this baseball season strong and make a killing in basketball. Best of luck

[staf]

5-2 +3.09 units yesterday
21-10 +11.28 units overall

MLB #1
Los Angeles Angels -141

MLB #4
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +135
San Diego Padres +1.5 -135
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +150

MLB #5
Milwaukee Brewers -140

adding
MLB #2
Kansas City Royals -110

[Martinr]

Will be good to keep an eye on this. Hope you stick with it.
What's the strategy when situations bring up opposing plays, as in Pads and Brewers above?

[staf]

Will be good to keep an eye on this. Hope you stick with it.
What's the strategy when situations bring up opposing plays, as in Pads and Brewers above?

There aren't enough results at SDB to draw any conclusions. I've decided to just bet everything and not get caught up in over-thinking things. In this situation, both picks could win, as San Diego is +1.5 on the RL.

[staf]

4-2 +2.1 units yesterday
25-12 +13.38 units overall

MLB #1
New York Yankees -121

MLB #2
Texas Rangers +128

MLB #5
Chicago Cubs -123

MLB #6
Atlanta Braves -120

[figue]

good luck

[staf]

1-3 -2.44 units yesterday
26-15 +10.94 units overall

Today's looking like a pass.
Has anybody gotten a response from Joe Meyer at SDB?

[staf]

26-15 +10.94 units overall

MLB 1
Baltimore Orioles -180
Boston Red Sox +157

MLB 2
Texas Rangers +129
Boston Red Sox +157
Detroit Tigers -107 game 1

MLB 4
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +165

MLB 5
St. Louis game 1 (waiting on line)

MLB 6
Colorado Rockies +138

The duplicate prediction on Boston will be counted only once towards my record. This will be my policy for all duplicate predictions.

[staf]

26-15 +10.94 units overall

MLB 1
Baltimore Orioles -180
Boston Red Sox +157

MLB 2
Texas Rangers +129
Boston Red Sox +157
Detroit Tigers -107 game 1

MLB 4
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +165

MLB 5
St. Louis game 1 (waiting on line)

MLB 6
Colorado Rockies +138

The duplicate prediction on Boston will be counted only once towards my record. This will be my policy for all duplicate predictions.

MLB 5
St. Louis Cardinals -160 game 1

[staf]

2-5 -3.29 units yesterday
28-20 +7.65 overall

MLB 4
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 -170

MLB 5
New York Mets -115

MLB 6
Miami Marlins +154

[staf]

1-2 -1.7 units yesterday
29-22 +5.95 units overall

MLB 1
Baltimore Orioles -135

MLB 2
Boston Red Sox +155

MLB 3
Baltimore Orioles -135

MLB 5
San Diego Padres -158
Washington Nationals -111

[staf]

2-2 -.35 units yesterday
31-24 +5.6 units overall

MLB 2
Toronto Blue Jays +107
Chicago White Sox +117

MLB 3
Baltimore Orioles -137
New York Yankees -147

MLB 6
Washington Nationals +180

[staf]

3-2 +.77 units yesterday
34-26 +6.37 units overall

MKB 2
Toronto Blue Jays +125
Chicago White Sox +111

MLB 3
Baltimore Orioles -153

MLB 5
Atlanta Braves -176

[staf]

3-1 +2.25 units yesterday
37-27 +8.62 units overall

MLB 2
Toronto Blue Jays +118

MLB 3
Baltimore Orioles -151
Toronto Blue Jays +118

[staf]

2-0 +2.18 units yesterday
39-27 +10.8 units overall

MLB 1
Seattle Mariners -167

MLB 2
Baltimore Orioles +131

MLB 3
Houston Astros +210
Toronto (no line)

MLB 5
Pittsburgh Pirates -118
Philadelphia Phillies +205
San Diego Padres +115

MLB 6
Los Angeles Dodgers -162

[Enjoi]

[staf]

2-0 +2.18 units yesterday
39-27 +10.8 units overall

MLB 1
Seattle Mariners -167

MLB 2
Baltimore Orioles +131

MLB 3
Houston Astros +210
Toronto (no line)

MLB 5
Pittsburgh Pirates -118
Philadelphia Phillies +205
San Diego Padres +115

MLB 6
Los Angeles Dodgers -162

MLB 3
Toronto Blue Jays -108

[staf]

4-3 +3.07 units yesterday
43-30 +13.87 units overall

MLB 3
Baltimore Orioles +117
Kansas City Royals +112
Houston Astros +193
Toronto Blue Jays +120
Seattle Mariners -144

MLB 5
St. Louis Cardinals +100

MLB 6
Pittsburgh Pirates -150

[FlyinAir]

Pure cash

[staf]

3-4 -1 unit yesterday
46-34 +12.87 units overall

MLB 3
Cleveland Indians -205
Toronto Blue Jays -105
Baltimore Orioles -105
Seattle Mariners -139
Houston Astros +143

MLB 5
Detroit Tigers -106

[Enjoi]

Thanks

[staf]

3-4 -1 unit yesterday
46-34 +12.87 units overall

MLB 3
Cleveland Indians -205
Toronto Blue Jays -105
Baltimore Orioles -105
Seattle Mariners -139
Houston Astros +143

MLB 5
Detroit Tigers -106

adding

MLB 6
Washington Nationals -150

[staf]

6-1 +5.04 units yesterday
52-35 +17.91 units overall

Monday, September 8th
Toronto Blue Jays -200
Baltimore Orioles -110
Milwaukee Brewers -171
San Diego Padres (no line)

[Enjoi]

Would you ever consider going against the system? I mean it's really hard to put money on the Padres with Kershaw dealing on the mound.

[staf]

6-1 +5.04 units yesterday
52-35 +17.91 units overall

Monday, September 8th
Toronto Blue Jays -200
Baltimore Orioles -110
Milwaukee Brewers -171
San Diego Padres (no line)

San Diego Padres +265

Would you ever consider going against the system? I mean it's really hard to put money on the Padres with Kershaw dealing on the mound.

I try not to over think things. If the method says the value is on the Padres, I have to bet the Padres. Worked on Friday with Phillies and Astros.

[Enjoi]

Yeh you're right but I'll pass on that game. Great day yesterday!

[staf]

2-2 -.71 units yesterday
54-37 +17.2 units overall

Tuesday, September 9th
Toronto Blue Jays -143
Cleveland Indians -166
Detroit Tigers -173
Philadelphia Phillies +128
Baltimore Orioles -136
Cincinnati Reds +114

[Enjoi]

You've been doing great, keep it up. Always appreciate your posts

[staf]

5-1 +3.76 units yesterday
59-38 +20.96 units overall

Wednesday, September 10th
Detroit Tigers -110
Toronto Blue Jays -163
St. Louis Cardinals -125
Los Angeles Angels -163
Oakland Athletics -184
Arizona Diamondbacks +153

[staf]

2-4 -3.19 units yesterday
61-42 +17.77 units overall

Thursday, September 11th
Kansas City Royals -126

[staf]

2-4 -3.19 units yesterday
61-42 +17.77 units overall

Thursday, September 11th
Kansas City Royals -126

adding
New York Yankees -102

[ch_theos]

Any chance you could share the queries for bball? With you on Yankees but 1st 5 innings only, they are the worst scoring 6th-9th inning team. Yesterday was a fun 1st 5 inning win lol

[staf]

1-1 -0.26 units yesterday
62-43 +17.51 units overall

Friday, September 12th
Baltimore Orioles -120 game 1
Pittsburgh Pirates -200
Toronto Blue Jays -140
New York Mets +145
Texas Rangers +131
Kansas City Royals -182
San Diego Padres +125
Seattle Mariners -133
San Francisco Giants -126