Ton of Leans for Sat

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 06:48 AM

I am on your last 3 Unders.

Pauulzcappin · 08-16-14, 07:25 AM

At first glance without going deep in the card I like KC. A bit worried that they are only a pick em.

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:01 AM

Is the total of 6.5 at -105 a trap in Detroit?
I see this as a 3-2 score at most...probably 2-1

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:17 AM

Like the Under in Miami, but Alvarez coming off DL...I hate taking Unders in those situations.
And it's in Miami...lotta Overs there.

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:18 AM

You can get SD-StL (U 7.5) @ -120.
That should be fairly low-scoring.

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:20 AM

Would not touch SF ML...they just can't hit these days.
I would play Under in that one...if I had to.

posey · 08-16-14, 08:24 AM

@Miami:

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+Marlins+and+H+and+season+%3E+2013+and+date+%3E%3D+today+-+28&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

There have been more unders than overs at Miami's home games recently. And Miley has 4 o, 7 u and 1 p in away games this season.

@Detroit:
I don't see much more runs either. But you have to keep in mind that in general the bookies do not give a total below 6.5 in AL games most of the time. In 2014 there have been two games with an AL host with a total of 6.0 and both were at Seattle with King Felix as a starter.
In 2013 there was one and guess what, it was at Seattle with King Felix as a starter.
In 2012 there were two and again, both at Seattle with King Felix as a starter.
In 2011 there were twelve, 4 of them at Seattle with King Felix and the rest were different pitchers in different parks.
But I think you can see where the trend goes.

@SFG:

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E+2013+and+line+%3C+-195&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Big favorites have brought cash this season.

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:34 AM

Cool. Thanks Posey.
Wish I waited on the Under 7 in Detroit.
Got it at -154 and now down to -139...baffled by this.

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 08:35 AM

I like the Under in TB this afternoon
U 7.5 (-130)

posey · 08-16-14, 08:44 AM

Oh yeah, that's right. The Under @TBR looks nice.

posey · 08-16-14, 08:55 AM

BTW, look at the Umps today:
http://statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp
There are a few so called 'Under-Umpires' with big strikezones in our possible games!

RollinDo · 08-16-14, 09:09 AM

Thanks man!
Umps are important.
Definitely on TB Under 7.5
Waiting for line to settle...still dropping

posey · 08-17-14, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by posey

Hey guys, haven't been active for a while, came back yesterday.

Here are my leans for today, I have a ton of them:
SFG ML risk 186 to win 100
PIT/WSH o 7.0 risk 114 to win 100
CHC/NYM o 7.5 risk 94 to win 100
ARI/MIA u 7.0 risk 92 to win 100
SDP ML rist 83 to win 100
NYY ML risk 85 to win 100
BAL/CLE u 8.5 risk 107 to win 100
SEA/DET u 6.5 risk 107 to win 100
KCR/MIN u 7.5 risk 113 to win 100
LAA ML risk 170 to win 100
OAK/ATL u 6.5 risk 106 to win 100

Look at them results. Holy mother of god...Should have played them all.

RollinDo · 08-17-14, 02:53 AM

Very nice man!
I had a rough rough day yesterday.
Positive for the week, but got burned yesterday.
Locked in Atlanta Under way too early.
If I had waited, could have gotten U 7 @ -110...I got U 6.5 for same price.
Then LAD lose. I thought -181 was actually a good deal. Seems I hardly win those games with a lot of juice.
Gotta win next 2 Kershaw games just to break even now.

RollinDo · 08-17-14, 02:54 AM

Taking off Sunday.

posey · 08-17-14, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Very nice man!
I had a rough rough day yesterday.
Positive for the week, but got burned yesterday.
Locked in Atlanta Under way too early.
If I had waited, could have gotten U 7 @ -110...I got U 6.5 for same price.
Then LAD lose. I thought -181 was actually a good deal. Seems I hardly win those games with a lot of juice.
Gotta win next 2 Kershaw games just to break even now.

I have been playing a ton of games with lots of juice this season and actually made some profit on it. Kershaw losing...well...who does expect that honestly? I know there are some folks out there who picked MIL, but I would have never thought that they get him for 2 HRs at Dodger's Stadium.

posey · 08-17-14, 06:14 AM

Why not start a fun-thread in which I play all picks with 'paper money'.

Every pick will be 'flat', meaning I will stake as much money as it will be needed to possibly win 100.

(Of course I will play some picks in reality but I simply would like to know how many right predictions or money I could make when looking at all scheduled matchups.)

Yesterday's MLs:
W/L: 4 W, 0 L
Profit: +400

Yesterday's totals (including the Under 7.0 @ TBR which was suggested by our buddy RollinDo):
W/L: 5 W, 1 L, 1 P
Profit: +394

Today's ML predictions (totals gonna follow later when Umpires are up):
CHC 120 to win 100
MIA 149 to win 100
WSH 164 to win 100
SEA 92 to win 100
BAL 99 to win 100
TOR 135 to win 100
TEX 72 to win 100
OAK 144 to win 100
STL 197 to win 100
SFG 167 to win 100
MIL 99 to win 100
BOS 143 to win 100
TBR 120 to win 100
MIN 97 to win 100

Lines for the two CIN/COL-games aren't up yet, so I can't say anything about them.

posey · 08-18-14, 11:01 AM

Gonna post today's prediction before typing in yesterday's results because Cubs and Mets play in a few mins.

Cubs 104 to win 100
Pirates 110 to win 100
Nats 222 to win 100
Reds 76 to win 100
Red Sox 88 to win 100
Royals 161 to win 100
White Sox 148 to win 100
Mariners 149 to win 100

posey · 08-18-14, 11:04 AM

Forgot to come back for the totals and for the CIN/COL games, but f... off totals and those two games.

Originally posted by posey

Today's ML predictions (totals gonna follow later when Umpires are up):
CHC 120 to win 100

MIA 149 to win 100

WSH 164 to win 100

SEA 92 to win 100

BAL 99 to win 100

TOR 135 to win 100

TEX 72 to win 100

OAK 144 to win 100

STL 197 to win 100

SFG 167 to win 100

MIL 99 to win 100

BOS 143 to win 100

TBR 120 to win 100

MIN 97 to win 100

Yesterday's MLs:
W/L: 9 W, 5 L
Profit: +261

Overall MLs:
W/L: 13 W, 5 L
Profit: +661