Magyarsvensk MLB 2014

[magyarsvensk]

So I'm new here. Starting to see how people format their picks on this board.

Throughout the season I have been developing a game-playing algorithm for baseball, and the latest version is running at a decent clip. None of the picks you see here are mine. I just take what the program gives me and lay some bets.

It runs in "total return" mode -- i.e., it tries to make as much money as possible over the season. This involves betting on almost every game's money line. It also bets a few over/unders a day (usually unders).

So far this week:

Monday: +5.97
Tuesday: +4.11
Wednesday: +0.85
Thursday: +2.90
Friday: -0.42
---------------
Total: +13.41 units


Early game picks for Saturday:

StL +119
Was +104
Tor +127
Sea -105

[magyarsvensk]

Ari +130
Atl -183
NYM +150
Pit -118
LAD -195
Bos -115 & U7 -105
Cle -106 & U9 -105
Min +158
Oak -200
LAA -117
Mia -106 & U8.5 EV

[magyarsvensk]

Just got back in. Placed bets via mobile earlier today.

Cin +117 & U8 -110
Ari +120
NYM +117
StL -157
LAD -125
Pit -118
SD +157
Tor +113
Bos +138 & U7.5 -125
CWS +116
Cle +103
Sea -111
Oak -210
Det +104
Mia +114

[magyarsvensk]

Monday: +5.97
Tuesday: +4.11
Wednesday: +0.85
Thursday: +2.90
Friday: -0.42
Saturday: +1.01
---------------
Total: +14.42 units

[magyarsvensk]

Weekend tally

Monday: +5.97
Tuesday: +4.11
Wednesday: +0.85
Thursday: +2.90
Friday: -0.42
Saturday: +1.01
Sunday: +4.32
---------------
Total: +18.74 units
119 bets
avg. return per bet: 15.7%

[magyarsvensk]

Early pick:

SD +180

[magyarsvensk]

Tor +124
NYY +135
Oak -200
Ari +120
Was -146
Phi +124
Col +130
Pit +140 & U6.5 -105
TB -130 & U7 -110

[magyarsvensk]

+0.01 units today. Not bad considering Soriano's breakdown.

to date
+18.75
131 bets
14.3% return per bet

[magyarsvensk]

Bal +121 & U8.5 -110
Sea EV
CWS +150 & U8 -110
Tor -101
NYY -170
Hou +165
Min +169
Was -140
Phi -125
Ari +113
Col -105
StL +105 & U6 -110
Atl +138
SF -117 & U6.5 -105
TB -160 & U7 -115

[magyarsvensk]

I really want to update my results, but this damn Cubs game won't end.

[magyarsvensk]

Week 1: +18.74
Mon: +0.01
Tues: +2.13
-------------------
Total: +20.88
151 bets
13.8% return per bet

[magyarsvensk]

Early games:

Phi +145
Ari +102
Was -160
SF -117 & U7.5 -125
TB -182 & U7 -125

[magyarsvensk]

Oak -140

[magyarsvensk]

LAA -134 & U8 -115
Sea -102
CWS +220
Tor -102
NYY -140
Col +102 & U8 -120
Atl +153
StL +110 & U6.5 EV

[magyarsvensk]

Ouch! Very much looking forward to getting back on track tomorrow.

Week 1: +18.74
Mon: +0.01
Tues: +2.13
Wed: -5.83
-------------------
Total: +15.05
170 bets
8.9% return per bet

[magyarsvensk]

Stl -102 & U7.5 -120
CWS +168

[magyarsvensk]

Col +165

[magyarsvensk]

LAA -109 & U9 -115
Sea +123 & U8.5 -110
Tor -150
Min +190
Phi +152
Cin -109 & U6.5 -120
Pit -117
Atl +185

[magyarsvensk]

Week 1: +18.74
Mon: +0.01
Tues: +2.13
Wed: -5.83
Thurs: +3.61
-------------------
Total: +18.66
185 bets
10.1% return per bet

[James Marques]

Nice rebound

[James Marques]

Obligatory post to get me off the number of the beast

[magyarsvensk]

Thanks. I would be surprised if it maintains a 10% return. Should be more like 5% or 6%. But I'll take it.

[magyarsvensk]

On the road today.

phi, cin&u, SF, stl, pit, lad, atl, sea, tex, tb&u, nyy, tor&u, min, oak, col

[magyarsvensk]

Blech....terrible day. Thinking long term.

Week 1: +18.74
Mon: +0.01
Tues: +2.13
Wed: -5.83
Thurs: +3.61
Fri: -6.04
-------------------
Total: +12.62
203 bets
6.2% return per bet

[magyarsvensk]

Oak -160
NYY +102

[magyarsvensk]

Behind posting picks, but that's okay because they have been crap lately anyway.

Week 1: +18.74
Mon: +0.01
Tues: +2.13
Wed: -5.83
Thurs: +3.61
Fri: -6.04
Sat: -0.24
Sun: -1.81
-------------------
Total: +10.57
235 bets
4.5% return per bet

[magyarsvensk]

Sf -140

[magyarsvensk]

NYY +110
Tex +124
Oak -142
Cin +170
Was -144
LAD -122

[magyarsvensk]

Algorithm is just not generating the type of returns that it should be. Seems like the books adjusted to a broad fundamental trend and my winnings flattened out. Even over 300+ bets is not where I need to be.

I took a break from a Euro soccer algorithm to make some big changes to the baseball one. It now factors in both pitchers and the ballpark. Preliminary tests show promise, but that could just be from an increased ability to microsample. I will start posting picks again if they turn out to be any good.