MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (46-0) nearly 38% ROI and 520% annualized return

[HappyKane]

Started a new thread because the old one is taking longer and longer to load.

After 4 seasons of tracking, i started this system on May 20, 2014 with a bankroll of $5,400.

64 days later, as of July 23, 2014, the system is 46-0 with a profit of $2,035.25.

ROI = 37.7%
Annualized return = 520%

Onto CHASE 47!

Bookmark this spreadsheet!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai8y0VjQSNzcdFdjdTlUR1RhQlJDdTE4dTBaOXBMakE#gid=0

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 47, 1st of 5
Phillies -115
$65 to win $56.52

[jay5hizzle]

quick question. what site are you getting the % from?

[a86r]

Awesome stuff Happy

[bluetooth3]

Even better here, public on the Giants at 70% and line moving in the favor of the Phillies.

Phillies victory here.

[JoeyCrackTheDon]

HappyKane,

Can you break down how a system like yours works? Everytime I ask someone I get the same response of "don't bother with systems"

Thanks!

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 48, 1st of 5
Orioles +129
$65 to win $83.85

[labones00]

I like what you have going here, keep up the good work!

[bigspender]

Is this ML only?

[HappyKane]

quick question. what site are you getting the % from?

http://www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-public-betting-chart#.U9INPPldWSr

[HappyKane]

2-0 on Thursday brings the YTD CHASE record to 48-0. Up $2,175.60.


Here is what we're looking at for Friday:


CWS 70% J. Danks C-
MIN 30% K. Correia B-/C-

I really hate betting on Correia but will give him one more try before he is blacklisted from future considerations regardless of how good his rating is.


Plus Danks is usually worth a fade these days. His numbers at Target Field is bleak. Home-plate umpire favors the Twins to the tune of 26-6.

[jay5hizzle]

what open chases do you currently have?

[johnnystitches]

What is the premise of your chase? Do you chase the SAME TEAM? Or just AGAINST the public percentages that you see. I wonder how those percentages differ from scoresandodds percentages, and sports options percentages? Have you ever looked into that?

Thanks for posting.

[HappyKane]

what open chases do you currently have?

None.

The CHASE system is now 48-0.

Next available play will be CHASE 49, 1st of 5.

[HappyKane]

what is the premise of your chase? Do you chase the same team? Or just against the public percentages that you see. I wonder how those percentages differ from scoresandodds percentages, and sports options percentages? Have you ever looked into that?

Thanks for posting.

the dumbest thing i see all year is that someone creates a chase system and they chase the same team to not get swept.

No team is impervious to being swept.

The criteria for my chases are in the spreadsheet.

[HappyKane]

there will be no "fade the public" play for friday.

the mojo seems to favor most favorites today.

One a day like this...

...take any team coming off a loss with a pitcher with good mojo vs a pitcher with bad mojo.

Recommended play: La dodgers.

[HappyKane]

One "fade the public" qualifier for Saturday, July 26:

CHASE 49, 1st of 5
Cubs -128
$65 to win $50.78

[HappyKane]

CHASE 49, 1st of 5 was a loser so...



CHASE 49, 2nd of 5
Cincinnati Reds +113
$115 to win $129.95

[5918mike]

So at what point do you make the decision to lock it in? Like today's Rockies game is sitting right at 60/40, do you have a set criteria for making the decision to play it.

[HappyKane]

0-2 over the weekend. Lost $180. Still at 48-0. Up $1,995.60.



CHASE 49, 3rd of 5
Rockies +130
$200 to win $260

[labones00]

0-2 over the weekend. Lost $180. Still at 48-0. Up $1,995.60.



CHASE 49, 3rd of 5
Rockies +130
$200 to win $260

not sure I'm following how you track your record...how did you go 0-2 over the weekend but still at 48-0?


either way that's a solid profit

[sbrhedge]

i think he's doing a martingale to catchup and once he hits, it clears the board.

so after 48 "wins" the casino still hasn't gotten any of his $$

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Monday; lost $200. Up $1,795.60. Still at 48-0. Elusive 49th win will have to go for the 4th try on next qualified game.

Updated ROI = 33.3%, annualized return = 347.6%.

There is no qualified "fade the public" play for Tuesday, July 29.

Check the spreadsheet for situational mojo plays; there are 5 of 'em today. I'd say the best play is: Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels).

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 49, 4th of 5
Phillies +139
$350 to win $486.5

[sbrhedge]

So now you're on Chase 49, 5th of 5 ... down $730 on this run, but still up $1,445.60 overall?

What happens if the 5th of 5 doesn't hit?

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Wednesday. Still at 48-0. Up $1,445.60.

Locking in:

CHASE 49, 5th and last try
Padres -109
$625 to win $573.39

Risking a lot to get it all back.

If this doesn't hit it counts as 48-1 for the first big loss of the season. Still at a profit but... it'll be a big sacrifice.