Monday leans

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  • bluetooth3
    SBR MVP
    • 06-01-14
    • 2075

    #1
    Monday leans
    Mets +119- dice k will be pitching for his spot in the rotation. Mets bats have been alive with 17 runs in the last 3 games. Braves are super hot and the public is backing them but line staying around where it opened. Lastly, the best spot to beat the Braves is when minor pitches

    Brewers -120- All will depend on if Braun is in the line up. They play well at home and can't see the Phillies winning this one. Estrada pitching fairly well his last 2. Think the offense does just enough.

    Pirates +156- pretty big line movement here going against the public. Pittsburgh playing really well. Worth a shot at this price as pretty good value here.

    Rockies -115- Rockies line up at home vs Kennedy should get some runs. Kennedy has also lost 4 of his last 5 road starts and 3 in a row. Only think I do not like here is being on the public side around 62% would like it to come down

    Royals +115- write up in the "Royals/ Rays" topic

    Just leans as of now

    BOL!
  • RavensFan2k3
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-12
    • 17378

    #2
    Agree with all except Mets. A slight majority of ppl are on ATL, the line is doing what I expect it to being doing. Line may even be higher closer to game time, unless money keeps shifting to Mets like it looks like it is doing
    Comment
    • NYRin09
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-12-09
      • 466

      #3
      toother new thread or you just posting the leans here and will put official plays in your thread. just wonddering. BOL
      Comment
      • bluetooth3
        SBR MVP
        • 06-01-14
        • 2075

        #4
        Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
        Agree with all except Mets. A slight majority of ppl are on ATL, the line is doing what I expect it to being doing. Line may even be higher closer to game time, unless money keeps shifting to Mets like it looks like it is doing
        I have the braves at around 65% and the line back down to +115 for the Mets. I would like to see that number to get around 70% and see that line stay at +115ish. I still think the value is with the Mets in this one. For as hot as the Braves have been playing, should be higher. So seems scary to back ATL imo
        Comment
        • yanksallday7
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-16-14
          • 636

          #5
          In my opinion the line for the ATL/NYM doesn't mean anything. It's going to change a lot once it's closer to game time so people can take the sucker bet, I live in vegas I would know. ATL is the better team overall, yes Mets having been playing ok but it's still the Mets. They are like the Cubs, they like to show up when you least except it and blow your bet going against them. That said I like ATL but was going to leave today alone to see what Mets team shows up for the series...just my two cents.
          Comment
          • Big Bear
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-01-11
            • 43253

            #6
            Originally posted by bluetooth3
            Mets +119- dice k will be pitching for his spot in the rotation. Mets bats have been alive with 17 runs in the last 3 games. Braves are super hot and the public is backing them but line staying around where it opened. Lastly, the best spot to beat the Braves is when minor pitches

            Brewers -120- All will depend on if Braun is in the line up. They play well at home and can't see the Phillies winning this one. Estrada pitching fairly well his last 2. Think the offense does just enough.

            Pirates +156- pretty big line movement here going against the public. Pittsburgh playing really well. Worth a shot at this price as pretty good value here.

            Rockies -115- Rockies line up at home vs Kennedy should get some runs. Kennedy has also lost 4 of his last 5 road starts and 3 in a row. Only think I do not like here is being on the public side around 62% would like it to come down

            Royals +115- write up in the "Royals/ Rays" topic

            Just leans as of now

            BOL!
            i like Cole Hamels a lot. If i knew Phillies would score 4 runs i would jump on them with no hesistation...

            however half the damn time Utely and Howard are out of the line-up and the Phillies seem to get shut out everytime i have money on them
            Comment
            • RavensFan2k3
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-18-12
              • 17378

              #7
              Oh and great call with TB yesterday, I did like it but was pissed about a loss from that afternoon
              Comment
              • bluetooth3
                SBR MVP
                • 06-01-14
                • 2075

                #8
                Originally posted by yanksallday7
                In my opinion the line for the ATL/NYM doesn't mean anything. It's going to change a lot once it's closer to game time so people can take the sucker bet, I live in vegas I would know. ATL is the better team overall, yes Mets having been playing ok but it's still the Mets. They are like the Cubs, they like to show up when you least except it and blow your bet going against them. That said I like ATL but was going to leave today alone to see what Mets team shows up for the series...just my two cents.
                Thanks for the input, always appreciated. I just dont see how taking the Mets is the "sucker bet" in this situation. Especially with the Braves being backed around 65%. Who wouldn't like to take the Braves in this spot? I feel if anything the Braves are the "sucker bet" Another thing I have been looking at but have not documented at all is looking at ESPN preview and seeing the percentages when the people click the winners. Right now the Braves are at 97%, in no way should this alone be a reason to bet, but in no way will I be going with 97%... Bol!
                Comment
                • bluetooth3
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-01-14
                  • 2075

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Big Bear
                  i like Cole Hamels a lot. If i knew Phillies would score 4 runs i would jump on them with no hesistation...

                  however half the damn time Utely and Howard are out of the line-up and the Phillies seem to get shut out everytime i have money on them
                  I agree. I like Hamels ability but I just dont see Philly doing much to back him. With Braun in the line-up, I see them being able to get at the minimum 3 runs, do I see the Phillies getting 4? Tough...even with HR maching Estrada on the mount. Utley and Howard dont scare me as much as they used to. Should be interesting to see what happens when line ups come out!

                  BOL!
                  Comment
                  • bluetooth3
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-01-14
                    • 2075

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                    Oh and great call with TB yesterday, I did like it but was pissed about a loss from that afternoon

                    The stars lined up, felt pretty confident with that pick. Padres really got to me too. That line got too steep, up to -138 at first pitch and I still fell in. Although I knew that 3 or 4 from the Padres would be good enough for a win, I did not see the Giants scoring 5. Live and Learn

                    Let's make some $ today!
                    Comment
                    • asdf21
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 06-21-14
                      • 173

                      #11
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