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  • mgoncalves10
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-01-14
    • 931

    #1
    Thursday Action. Share Your Picks
    I bounced back nicely yesterday between Tennis, World Cup action and some Baseball. Back into the positive for the week, so let's see if that continues today.

    Looking at the Twins/Angels game.. Weaver vs Nolasco..

    Weaver has been inconsistent at times this season, but he's a respectable 7-6, 3.47 ERA. At home is where he's been more comfortable over the years, and this season he's 4-3, 2.92 at Angels Stadium. The alarming stat is that in day games this season, he's 1-2, 5.50 ERA. He'll be up against a Ricky Nolasco that also tends to give up some runs (4-5, 5.52).. Away from home has not been his thing either (2-3, 7.11), and in day games, (2-3, 6.92)..

    As for batting averages, the Angels have managed a .400 BA against Nolasco in 60 at bats, while the Twins have 153 at bats against Weaver, while posting a .268 ERA.

    As I expected yesterday, given how well the Angels are swinging the bat right now, even if Weaver does give up a few runs, I think the home side will put up enough runs to get the win here. The ML is at -170, and the RL at +125 is a scenario I'm also thinking about...
  • RollinDo
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-04-13
    • 13322

    #2
    I can't see why you'd back the Twins today.I like Angels -1.

    Under in Houston...again. Showers expected, so roof likely closed, cutting off wind of 12 mph out to right.Under has hit in last 5 in this series...Braves starters real solid lately...Minor was better on road last year and I expect another strong start.Getaway day and both teams hit poorly in day games.
    Comment
    • 44 Mag
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 10-14-13
      • 34491

      #3
      Originally posted by RollinDo
      I can't see why you'd back the Twins today.I like Angels -1.

      Under in Houston...again. Showers expected, so roof likely closed, cutting off wind of 12 mph out to right.Under has hit in last 5 in this series...Braves starters real solid lately...Minor was better on road last year and I expect another strong start.Getaway day and both teams hit poorly in day games.
      If the roof is closed what does it matter if it is a day game???
      Comment
      • RollinDo
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-04-13
        • 13322

        #4
        Originally posted by 44 Mag
        If the roof is closed what does it matter if it is a day game???
        Wind out at 13 mph...last time wind out in Houston and I backed the Under that seemed obvious, homers ensued and Under was toast.
        Comment
        • 44 Mag
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 10-14-13
          • 34491

          #5
          Originally posted by RollinDo
          Wind out at 13 mph...last time wind out in Houston and I backed the Under that seemed obvious, homers ensued and Under was toast.
          Ya lost me??? You said the rood should be closed, soooo, what does it matter about the wind or playing during the day???
          Comment
          • RollinDo
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-04-13
            • 13322

            #6
            Originally posted by 44 Mag
            Ya lost me??? You said the rood should be closed, soooo, what does it matter about the wind or playing during the day???
            Could be closed, but I don't have info on that...might change my pick if it's not closed...not sure of severity of storm.
            Comment
            • cala56
              SBR MVP
              • 02-25-10
              • 4231

              #7
              No picks for me today..
              Comment
              • maggiethebestdog
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-21-13
                • 6700

                #8
                Originally posted by 44 Mag
                Ya lost me??? You said the rood should be closed, soooo, what does it matter about the wind or playing during the day???
                i'll help you out. it matters because of the time of the day the game is held. day is different than night and it can alter timing, sleep, prep time, and coming off a night game can throw people off if the next day they play earlier.
                Comment
                • ZIPPER HEAD
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-17-13
                  • 2592

                  #9
                  Wa, det, laa
                  Comment
                  • RollinDo
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-04-13
                    • 13322

                    #10
                    Under 8 Houston
                    Comment
                    • chalk46
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-14-13
                      • 564

                      #11
                      SF Giants-115 against Reds. Cincy never performs well out west. Long travel after a 6:00 game last night.
                      Comment
                      • posey
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-23-14
                        • 1112

                        #12
                        They do what? Not perform well out west?

                        25-17 (1.26, 59.5%) avg line: -105.8 / -104.8 on / against: +$737 / -$953 ROI: +15.2% / -19.8%
                        26-16 (0.98, 61.9%) avg line: -114.7 / 101.4 on / against: +$1,094 / -$1,302 ROI: +19.5% / -24.2%
                        15-25-2 (-0.36, 37.5%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$1,240 / +$840 ROI: -27.0% / +18.1%
                        10-6 (1.38, 62.5%) avg line: 108.6 / -118.9 on / against: +$551 / -$618 ROI: +32.7% / -31.6%
                        11-5 (1.94, 68.8%) avg line: -149.8 / 134.4 on / against: +$442 / -$531 ROI: +17.1% / -27.8%
                        9-6-1 (2.53, 60.0%) avg total: 7.1 over / under: +$245 / -$405 ROI: +14.0% / -22.8%
                        Comment
                        • RollinDo
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 09-04-13
                          • 13322

                          #13
                          Dome closed for Houston game?
                          Comment
                          • RollinDo
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-04-13
                            • 13322

                            #14
                            Hope these pitchers settle down. 2 runs already, but early.
                            Comment
                            • Go Beavers
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 08-09-09
                              • 153

                              #15
                              Im on the cubbies tonight. Small
                              Comment
                              • RollinDo
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-04-13
                                • 13322

                                #16
                                1 pitch away from getting out of the 5th at 2-1...this Under not looking good suddenly.
                                Comment
                                • RollinDo
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-04-13
                                  • 13322

                                  #17
                                  We got it guys!!!
                                  7 runs...just made it.
                                  Let's get this No score 1st Prop in the Dodgers game!
                                  Comment
                                  • Eworth1986
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 06-17-14
                                    • 405

                                    #18
                                    Wash, Toronto, SF, STL
                                    Comment
                                    • mgoncalves10
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 01-01-14
                                      • 931

                                      #19
                                      I'm leaning Phillies. Hamels has been pitching well, and he has very good numbers against the Marlins.. 0-0, 3.86 this season, and 5-5, 2.60 ERA since 2011.. Meanwhile Koehler is 2-3, 4.70 away from home this year, and since 2011, he has an 0-1, 8.22 ERA against the Phillies, and a 9.00 era in Philadelphia...

                                      At -169, it's a lot of juice, but I think it's worth the gamble. May play it in a parlay, but still deciding..
                                      Comment
                                      • TheNumbersGame
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 06-26-14
                                        • 5

                                        #20
                                        STL/LAD u6.5
                                        COL/MIL u9
                                        NYM/PIT u8
                                        PIT ML
                                        MIL ML
                                        SFG ML
                                        Comment
                                        • farmhouse1
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-14-14
                                          • 4377

                                          #21
                                          Mets team total over 3.5
                                          Comment
                                          • mgoncalves10
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-01-14
                                            • 931

                                            #22
                                            Anyone have any thoughts on the two late games..?! That Reds/Giants game looks like a tough one to pick a side, but after a no-hitter from Lincecum, I think the Giants feed off that and get to Leake tonight..

                                            As for the Cards/Dodgers game.. Was looking at No Score 1st inning...
                                            Comment
                                            • RollinDo
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 09-04-13
                                              • 13322

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by mgoncalves10
                                              Anyone have any thoughts on the two late games..?! That Reds/Giants game looks like a tough one to pick a side, but after a no-hitter from Lincecum, I think the Giants feed off that and get to Leake tonight..

                                              As for the Cards/Dodgers game.. Was looking at No Score 1st inning...
                                              If you have followed my posts today, I was all Over that 1st Inning No Score...hope you were on it too!
                                              Comment
                                              • mgoncalves10
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 01-01-14
                                                • 931

                                                #24
                                                I wanted to pull the trigger on the no score 1st inning in the Cards/Dodgers game, but the -165 pushed me away. Was at a high price, and wasn't sure if I wanted to lay that juice. I'm up $260 on the day, so it's been a good day, but i'm made that i didn't take it now haha..

                                                I got a parlay with the Dodgers/Giants going right now, and may take a live bet or two. Any suggestions?
                                                Comment
                                                • RollinDo
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 09-04-13
                                                  • 13322

                                                  #25
                                                  Why Dodgers? Not a bad play but I think Waino has the upper hand and Dodgers not great at home.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • RollinDo
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 09-04-13
                                                    • 13322

                                                    #26
                                                    I got to see Nolasco for the 1st time today as the free game on mlb.com
                                                    I really didn't know a major league pitcher could look that bad. He was throwing watermelons to hitters - not much velocity or movement.
                                                    Really helps to see more games to help make bets...IMO....especially in hoops, but seeing pitchers live is really helpful I think.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mgoncalves10
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-01-14
                                                      • 931

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by RollinDo
                                                      I got to see Nolasco for the 1st time today as the free game on mlb.com
                                                      I really didn't know a major league pitcher could look that bad. He was throwing watermelons to hitters - not much velocity or movement.
                                                      Really helps to see more games to help make bets...IMO....especially in hoops, but seeing pitchers live is really helpful I think.
                                                      Yeah i have a yearly subscription to MLB.tv so I tend to watch a lot of games. Especially the ones I bet on..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mgoncalves10
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-01-14
                                                        • 931

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by RollinDo
                                                        Why Dodgers? Not a bad play but I think Waino has the upper hand and Dodgers not great at home.
                                                        Well you may think this is strange, but I had originally picked Cards/Giants Parlay, but when I went to submit, the site hung up and give me an error. In the past, when that's happened, and I've gone back in and placed the same bet, I've lost. So I was on the fence with Cards ML or Dodgers RL, so instead i took the chance with the Dodgers & Giants ML.. Let's hope that error was a blessing in disguise haha
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Go Beavers
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 08-09-09
                                                          • 153

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Go Beavers
                                                          Im on the cubbies tonight. Small
                                                          WOOT how did everyone else fare
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mgoncalves10
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 01-01-14
                                                            • 931

                                                            #30
                                                            Cards/Dodgers (Draw After 4.5) (Live Bet) - Winna Winna Chicken Dinna!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • RollinDo
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 09-04-13
                                                              • 13322

                                                              #31
                                                              Woulda had a super nigh t if Cards pulled it out...still having trouble picking sides.
                                                              Hit 5 straight Unders/Props, but with big play on Mets yesterday, Balt on Tues, and Cards tonight, can barely get my head above water.
                                                              Comment
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