MLB - Tuesday, 6/17/14

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 197-236-6, -13.92

[carll]

i think the jays could get to NYY star pitcher!!

[LT Profits]

i think the jays could get to NYY star pitcher!!

At +163, I was willing to chance it.

[RavensFan2k3]

At +163, I was willing to chance it.

Ok but what other reasons besides "value"?

[LT Profits]

Ok but what other reasons besides "value"?

VALUE is the ONLY thing that matters when betting ANYTHING. In this case, my model gives Toronto a 41% chance if winning, which equates to +144, making +163 +EV.

Stroman is no Tanaka, but he has been fine in his three starts this year posting a 2.50 ERA, going 3-for-3 in Quality Starts and most importantly having a great ratio of 17 strikeouts vs. 2 walks in 18 innings. And the Blue Jays are the better hitting team between these two vs. right-handed pitching.

[RavensFan2k3]

I'd disagree, being on the winning side it the only thing that matters to me, whether it's -150 or +150. I'm not going to miss out on a winner because its -150 and deemed no value lol.

44% at those odds are pretty good. I'm going to look into it, BOL

[LT Profits]

I'd disagree, being on the winning side it the only thing that matters to me, whether it's -150 or +150.

Not true long-term if you are not betting with value. Say you keep betting -150 favorites that have a 58% winning percentage. Your record will look good after 100 plays at 58-42, but you would be down money.

[RavensFan2k3]

Not true long-term if you are not betting with value. Say you keep betting -150 favorites that have a 58% winning percentage. Your record will look good after 100 plays at 58-42, but you would be down money.

Only if these plays are losing plays. I'm more of the go big on very few plays, than go small on a lot of plays.

[LT Profits]

Only if these plays are losing plays. I'm more of the go big on very few plays, than go small on a lot of plays.

Well they are not losing plays 58% of the time. But -150 has a break-even of 60%. Point is everything goes back to value no matter how you look at. There is nothing wrong with better -150s as long as you expect to win more than 60% of them. Problem is very few handicappers are good enough to get a read on projected %, myself included based on my units.

[RavensFan2k3]

Well they are not losing plays 58% of the time. But -150 has a break-even of 60%. Point is everything goes back to value no matter how you look at. There is nothing wrong with better -150s as long as you expect to win more than 60% of them. Problem is very few handicappers are good enough to get a read on projected %, myself included based on my units.

I guess I win more than 60% of them since I do so few. But I'l look into that Blue Jays game, you may be on to something there. I do like Angels, but why Padres?

[LT Profits]

Mariners awful offensively at home, first team to score two runs wins! I actually rate this game close to even, so getting +124 on a coin flip was good.

[LT Profits]

Best I see on Blue Jays right now is +153. That's why I like betting the overnights, either the nickel lines at 5 Dimes or the 4-cent lines at Heritage.

[RavensFan2k3]

Best I see on Blue Jays right now is +153. That's why I like betting the overnights, either the nickel lines at 5 Dimes or the 4-cent lines at Heritage.

I just dont like the limits they put on the overnight lines, which is why I usually have to wait till the next day, depending on the amount ofcourse.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Stroman is no Tanaka, but he has been fine in his three starts this year posting a 2.50 ERA, going 3-for-3 in Quality Starts and most importantly having a great ratio of 17 strikeouts vs. 2 walks in 18 innings. And the Blue Jays are the better hitting team between these two vs. right-handed pitching.

Stroman is interesting. Just 5' 9" 185 lbs. Very good minor league numbers. Remarkable .386 BABIP in his 24 IP this year, averages 94 on his fastball.

Most interesting may be he's from Long Island making his first start in front of a hometown, sort of, crowd. I looked at this game early this morning and was initially scared off by Stroman's .300+ BAA but when you look under the hood that may not be as bad as it seems.

Newsday has a good writeup on tonight's game. http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseba...naka-1.8464812

[LT Profits]

Stroman is interesting. Just 5' 9" 185 lbs. Very good minor league numbers. Remarkable .386 BABIP in his 24 IP this year, averages 94 on his fastball.

Most interesting may be he's from Long Island making his first start in front of a hometown, sort of, crowd. I looked at this game early this morning and was initially scared off by Stroman's .300+ BAA but when you look under the hood that may not be as bad as it seems.

Newsday has a good writeup on tonight's game. http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseba...naka-1.8464812

LOL, my wife is from Hempstead. But yeah, the .386 BABIP has to stabilize eventually and it is only 24 innings after all.

[Filthyy]

LT you're a knowledgeable guy and I like reading your posts, but I almost always fade or avoid the games you play

[Lincoln Scofield]

I'd disagree, being on the winning side it the only thing that matters to me,

God you're dumb.

[RavensFan2k3]

God you're dumb.

Idk what you have against me, but please put me on your ignore list since Im so dumb.

[Lincoln Scofield]

Idk what you have against me, but please put me on your ignore list since Im so dumb.

Don't discredit somone's logical post with LOL you frickin jabronni. "I'm not going to miss out on a winner because its -150 and deemed no value lol." What's really happening is we're lol'ing at how naive you are. Just like LT said, value is everything. That's not a question. It's not up for debate. No one cares how many winners you pick cause you're losing long term if you don't value bet. Also, not up for debate.

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

8 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs -116 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 -120 (Heritage)
Rockies +162 (5 Dimes)

[Big Bear]

I'd disagree, being on the winning side it the only thing that matters to me, whether it's -150 or +150. I'm not going to miss out on a winner because its -150 and deemed no value lol.

44% at those odds are pretty good. I'm going to look into it, BOL

exactly.

[RavensFan2k3]

Don't discredit somone's logical post with LOL you frickin jabronni. "I'm not going to miss out on a winner because its -150 and deemed no value lol." What's really happening is we're lol'ing at how naive you are. Just like LT said, value is everything. That's not a question. It's not up for debate. No one cares how many winners you pick cause you're losing long term if you don't value bet. Also, not up for debate.

I didn't discredit anything. I respect LT, which is why I come to his thread for discussion. If someone wins a bet, they are losing long term because there was a minus in front of the number instead of plus? That doesnt make sense. I guess this is true if you play 10+ games a day and pray to go 58%. I dont do that. When I see a winner, I bet it. I much rather go 8 for 10 on large plays, then 58 out of a 100 on small plays. And I'm naive because I'd rather go large on a play I feel strongly about than play a bunch of plays and pray I win half? LOL, thats cool, I'll be naive and win money. Calling me dumb and naive because you dont like how I make money, wow. Please dont speak to me again.

[Lincoln Scofield]

If someone wins a bet, they are losing long term because there was a minus in front of the number instead of plus? That doesnt make sense.

Actually, it makes perfect sense. It just doesn't make sense to you. Not to mention you just referred to the exact case where people misinterpret value the most - mistaking an individual winning bet as a good bet just because it won regardless of the number in front of it.

I guess this is true if you play 10+ games a day and pray to go 58%. I dont do that. When I see a winner, I bet it. I much rather go 8 for 10 on large plays, then 58 out of a 100 on small plays.

Gee thanks. I'm sure no one ever wanted to go 80% vs. 58%.

And I'm naive because I'd rather go large on a play I feel strongly about than play a bunch of plays and pray I win half? LOL, thats cool, I'll be naive and win money. Calling me dumb and naive because you dont like how I make money, wow.

Irrelevant. Doesn't matter what the amount of money is on a certain play vs. another play. If you're not getting equal return on investment then you might as well just hand over a check to the nearest school for the deaf.

Please dont speak to me again.

Idiots like you keep me coming back to this site, and we both know there's tons of guys like you on here, so I'm in for the long haul buddy.

[RavensFan2k3]

Actually, it makes perfect sense. It just doesn't make sense to you. Not to mention you just referred to the exact case where people misinterpret value the most - mistaking an individual winning bet as a good bet just because it won regardless of the number in front of it.



Gee thanks. I'm sure no one ever wanted to go 80% vs. 58%.



Irrelevant. Doesn't matter what the amount of money is on a certain play vs. another play. If you're not getting equal return on investment then you might as well just hand over a check to the nearest school for the deaf.


Idiots like you keep me coming back to this site, and we both know there's tons of guys like you on here, so I'm in for the long haul buddy.

Goodluck to you sir, but like I said, I'll continue being an idiot and making good money.

[Ronald S.]

LT why don't you vary your bet size? Surely your model sees more value in some lines than others

[KiDBaZkiT]

Love how this guy is down 13 units and says value is the only thing that matters.

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

9 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs -116 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 8 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 -120 (Heritage)
Rockies +162 (5 Dimes)

[Lincoln Scofield]

Love how this guy is down 13 units and says value is the only thing that matters.

That's cause value is subjective. Everyone uses a different system. It's not like every handicapper sets the line at the same price as every other one.

[chalk46]

Not seen any mention of Cincy Reds tonight. Their my squad and I rarely bet on them(usually against) but I strongly feel they about to get it going. A lot of positive things are happening right now with Votto being solid since coming back, Latos back with the squad and Hamilton picking up his play. Not to mention the huge advantage in pitchers tonight. Pittsburgh hasn't sniffed Cueto in either game they've faced him this season. Cincy-116 appears too good to be true.

[LT Profits]

Yet Another MLB Addition

10 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs -116 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 8 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 -120 (Heritage)
Rangers -111 (Heritage)
Rockies +162 (5 Dimes)

[remeedella]

ravens stop being so stupid, since I first met you

[44 Mag]

10 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs -116 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 8 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 -120 (Heritage)
Rangers -111 (Heritage)
Rockies +162 (5 Dimes)

10 wagers, you are lucky to go 4-6. But, you are a professional, so BOL to you.

[LT Profits]

No Action on Diamondbacks Under, Miley scratched.

[LT Profits]

Back to an MLB 10-Pack

10 MLB Plays Tuesday

Padres +124 (Heritage)
Reds -119 (5 Dimes)
Angels +101 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +163 (5 Dimes)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs -116 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 8 -115 (Heritage)
Rangers -111 (Heritage)
Rockies +162 (5 Dimes)

[Shadow Sports]

At +163, I was willing to chance it.

A smart,well-considered shot at bringing home a good-price underdog.

Best wishes