Leans for today, WED 2014-06-11

grey area · 06-11-14, 11:16 AM

Pass on MIL is all I can say for now

RollinDo · 06-11-14, 11:39 AM

Atlanta has me a bit worried from some insight I've been reading on their lack of hitting vs lefties over last 5-10 games.
I still like them at -1.
Unders I like are Reds and Orioles...maybe Rangers. I was thinking of taking Marlins Under 3, in which case if it hits, for the total Under to hit, Rangers would have to score 5+.
Just worried about Turner on the road.

posey · 06-11-14, 11:51 AM

Thx for your thoughts.

Regarding Brewers: I was simply thinking about deGrom, the Mets seem like they don't like him.

Regarding Braves: I don't know why so many guys put so much faith in their recent numbers against LH pitching. Over the last 10 games they faced one LH starter, this was Wade Miley (ARI). And yes, they scored only 2 runs against him, 1 of those 2 was unearned.
As far as I calculated it correctly, LHP (Miley + all the relievers that got work against the Braves) were pitching only 12.2 innings over the last 10 games against the Braves. The Braves scored only 3 runs against them, 1 was unearned. IMO the sample size is much, much too small to give this number relevance.

posey · 06-11-14, 11:58 AM

Ah - and yes, Koehler doesn't do well on the road in general. But over his last 10 away starts the opponents average 3.5 runs per game against the Marlins when Koehler starts. And even if Koehler struggles, the Marlins BP wasn't too bad over the last 14 days with a 3.75 ERA. Besides that the Marlins offense only ranks at 23rd regarding road wRC+ with 86. And when Darvish starts at home, the opponent team scores only 1.8 runs on average against the Rangers.

RollinDo · 06-11-14, 12:34 PM

You going with Rangers Under then?
Very rare that a total goes above 8 when Darvish starts...last game was an exception.
And Koehler pitched last night...Turner on mound tonight.

posey · 06-11-14, 01:00 PM

Ah sorry yeah you're right lol.

But no biggie. With Turner starting the Marlins road opponents score 4.3 runs per game on average.

I am on the under 8.5 . I really don't care who is the opponent's team or starter as long as the total is abover 7.5 and Darvish starts at home. The Rangers have scored 4.6 runs per game ver the last 10 games on average. Even if they score 6, which is highly possible, the Marlins would have to score more than 2. Darvish has 15 overs, 24 unders and 1 push in home starts. When the total was smaller than 9 there came 8 overs, 17 unders, 1 push. The score was even only 2 times over, but 14 times under with 1 push in Darvish's home starts since June '13 when the total was smaller than 9.

http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sdql=starter+%3D+Yu+Darvish+and+H+ and+total+<+9+and+date+>+20130601&submit =S+D+Q+L+%21&sid=guest

RollinDo · 06-11-14, 01:06 PM

Locking in Under now. I lost last game, so odds are in my favor here.
Thanks for the breakdown. I am 8-1 in bets involving Darvish. ML insane...even at -1 not good. Heck, wouldn't be surprised if Marlins win 3-2.
Still contemplating Braves...weird line there of only -130.

posey · 06-11-14, 01:18 PM

I don't know why the Bookies have placed the odds only at -130.
The Braves are a whopping 22-5 against the Rockies since 2011 and out of that 9-3 at Coors Field. Braves are 7-4 in their last 11 away games. 3 of the 4 losses came with 1 run difference.
Rockies are 1-11 over the last 12 with 4.2 to 7.4 runs per game on average. Not taking the 2-2 against the Giants with De La Rosa against Hudson, which was postponed, into account, the Rockies are 1-8 in their last 9 at home.
A line of -130 represents about .565. To be honest I think the Braves' chances are higher in this one.

posey · 06-12-14, 08:47 AM

5 wins.
Can't back it up, so believe me or not, I could understand if you don't, but the day before yesterday I was even 7 of 9. I chose plays only by comparing W-L and O-U stats lol.

RollinDo · 06-12-14, 08:53 AM

I believe ya...you seem to know what you're doing?
Who you like tonight?

posey · 06-12-14, 08:57 AM

I am currently at work.

When I get back home in about 1 1/2 hours I will post what I like today. And then I will tell you how I chose the picks. Maybe I was lucky but to be honest I think I wasn't this much.