EP36s Super Regionals Dogpile 2014

[EaglesPhan36]

FTW,

6.8.14
CHARLOTTESVILLE SUPER REGIONAL: Maryland +1.5 @ +150
LUBBOCK SUPER REGIONAL: Charleston +1.5 @ +150
I think both dogs have legitimate shots to win. Virginia will be feeling the pressure of the world. Waddell is on the hill. He's solid, but if they can score on Kirby - they can get to Waddell. Freshman Shawaryn for the Terps has been sensational all season and into the postseason. He should keep them in the game. For Charleston, their best is on the hill - Bailey Ober. Tech has not announced a starter, but likely to be another Frosh, Dylan Dusek. Tech has played a lot of close games in the postseason, so this one should be tight and give Charleston a chance to stick in close again and maybe steal a W if they can get some timely hits for once.

[EaglesPhan36]

NASHVILLE SUPER REGIONAL: Vanderbilt-Stanford Over 8.5 @ -130
Runs have been plentiful in this Super Regional with 17 in the opener and then nine in Game 2 on Saturday. Stanford showed again that it is capable of hitting the best pitching as they go four runs off of Carson Fulmer who entered with an ERA under 2.00. Today, Vandy puts out another rock solid pitcher in Buehler. He sports a 2.27 ERA/.218 BAA. He's got power strikeout stuff with a K per inning average. Stanford counters with James Logan who has a 4.77 ERA. His BAA is low at .221, but he walks a lot of batters - 31 in 60 IP. If Vandy gets to hit early, they get more shots at the Stanford bullpen which is not a strongpoint on this club. Vanegas was able to close the deal for the Cardinal yesterday, but he walked four batters and made it very interesting. It'll be all-hands on deck, but I think Vandy will have plenty of chances if they continue to be patient. They drew seven walks yesterday and eight in Game 1. If they continue to get that many free base runners, they will cash in with some big hits. Through the Regionals and Supers, Stanford games have gone to nine runs or more 6/7 while Vanderbilt has seen games of nine runs of more in 6/8 through the SEC tournament, Regionals & Supers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well that total was the one I felt best about among those first three and it hits early. If Charleston can cash, headed in the right direction. Likely playing something in the nightcap with Ole Miss-Lafayette. My boys from TCU need one win to get back to Omaha!

[EaglesPhan36]

LAFAYETTE SUPER REGIONAL: La. Lafayette-Ole Miss Over 11.5 @ -115
A large total, but given the offensive potency of these two clubs - it is warranted. Last night, Lafayette pounded Ole Miss for a 9-5 win. Tonight, Ole Miss puts lefty Christian Trent on the mound. Carson Baranik goes for Lafayette. He's the one I expect will definitely give some up. His ERA is respectable at 3.27 with a .234 BAA. He's not overpowering, so Ole Miss can expect to have some shots if they are patient. He has given up 4-5 runs in a lot of starts against quality teams where his offense has backed him with a lot to let him pitch deep into games. Trent is rock solid as a lefty with a 2.37 ERA/.239 BAA. He had some arm fatigue at the end of the season, but bounced back with a solid effort in the Regionals against Washington. This will be the most challenging lineup he has faced though. Lafayette has now scored nine or better in four of their last five in the postseason. Ole Miss has been up & down with its production of late, but a lot of that is due to facing some elite pitching from Washington and teams like Arkansas and Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow this CF from Tech has robbed Charleston twice and just saved them from being tied 1-1. Charleston has no luck offensively.

[EaglesPhan36]

Assuming Charleston successfully goes down without scoring, the +1.5 bets will split and work some profit - so that's good. Need that Over tonight to get close to even for the weekend.

Gotta trust the gut more, felt very good about what I went with today. All jived with my first feeling. Yesterday, I just was in a bad mindset and really fukked myself up. Have to remember that for Omaha and the Big Grind of the CWS.

5Dimes should finally have a full slate of Futures for the CWS. It is gonna be wide open it appears. Going to play right to TD Ameritrade with loads of great pitching. Teams that can score are going to have a big advantage, but I think maybe the teams that do the little things like moving runners and hitting well with RISP not just mashing it.

That suits teams like Texas and Louisville. Lafayette will be a very intriguing team if they make it. They will by far be the most explosive offense in Omaha. I am guessing Texas Tech will be the Omaha Darlings as first timers unless Maryland makes it, then I'd think the Terps will be the adopted team that everyone loves for a week.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dogpile in Lubbock. Nice jump. No clue how kids don't get crushed in those. Never would have thought Tech would get there on pitching.

[Far2Gone]

LAFAYETTE SUPER REGIONAL: La. Lafayette-Ole Miss Over 11.5 @ -115
A large total, but given the offensive potency of these two clubs - it is warranted. Last night, Lafayette pounded Ole Miss for a 9-5 win. Tonight, Ole Miss puts lefty Christian Trent on the mound. Carson Baranik goes for Lafayette. He's the one I expect will definitely give some up. His ERA is respectable at 3.27 with a .234 BAA. He's not overpowering, so Ole Miss can expect to have some shots if they are patient. He has given up 4-5 runs in a lot of starts against quality teams where his offense has backed him with a lot to let him pitch deep into games. Trent is rock solid as a lefty with a 2.37 ERA/.239 BAA. He had some arm fatigue at the end of the season, but bounced back with a solid effort in the Regionals against Washington. This will be the most challenging lineup he has faced though. Lafayette has now scored nine or better in four of their last five in the postseason. Ole Miss has been up & down with its production of late, but a lot of that is due to facing some elite pitching from Washington and teams like Arkansas and Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament.

I like the over here as well. Ole Miss can swing the bats well and while UL is known for their offense (8 runs a game), their pitching can give up some runs once you get beyond Robicheaux. Even offensively inept Miss. St put up some runs on them. I am not sure who wins this game, but I think it is a 8-6 kinda game myself.

If we can get some CWS futures, I might take my chances with UC Irvine.

Thanks for the nice write-ups.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah Irvine is on a major roll with loads of confidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pitcher's duel so far in Lafayette. Ole Miss has had the better of the chances, but hit into a DP when they threatened a big inning perhaps. Lafayette not finding much so far off Trent.

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe about a 1% chance this goes over at this point. Trent too good today. Needed one of these pitchers to be off and neither really is.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like three for Monday: UVA-Maryland, TCU-Pepperdine & Ole Miss-Lafayette. Probably need to consider the Over again for Ole Miss-Lafayette with the 3rd starters up. Gotta look over UVA-Maryland, but that also doesn't seem like a bad idea.

Think my Froggies will bring it home tomorrow. Alexander beats whatever Pepperdine is going to offer as a 3rd starter. TCU needs to find some offense early though to avoid tightening under pressure. Should be a fun day. Maybe profitable with the right plays for once. Today was okay, but a bummer on this last one.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.9.14
FT.WORTH SUPER REGIONAL: TCU -190
Good pitching edge for the Frogs today. They start Freshman Tyler Alexander, while Pepperdine counters with Sophomore Jackson McClelland. Alexander won’t be scared in this spot as he was the pitcher who closed out the Regionals for TCU in a 6-1 win over Sam Houston State with a CG, six hitter. On the season, he’s been a rock with a 1.94 ERA/.224 BAA. He throws strikes and pitches to contact, so the defense as usual has to be ready. He’s only walked 11 all year. McClelland has decent numbers, but is hittable. 3.53 ERA/.266 BAA. He gives up about a hit per inning and does not walk many, so the Frogs need to be aggressive and hit their pitch. Exceptionally important for TCU to jump on McClelland and give Alexander a lead to work with today. That is when this Frogs’ team is at their best because of a stout bullpen. Hopefully the lefty can help negate the Waves’ best in Barnett and Brown who have not done much this series. Keeping Caruso in check is a must. He was the key cog in their win yesterday. I expect this play out to be another tight game unless the TCU bats explode early as that is just the M.O. for this squad.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not a good start. Offense failed again with RISP & Pepperdine takes a lead.

[EaglesPhan36]

So much for the pitching edge. FML. Get him outta there.

[dowecheat'em&how]

whats up for tonight EP...................................... ..DWCH

[EaglesPhan36]

My blood alcohol content because TCU cannot buy a hit with RISP. Fukkkkk.

UVA-Maryland is tough to call. Starters are Ruse & Sborz. But bullpens will be up early if needed. Probably like Maryland +2.5 and the over a little less.

Olw Miss-Lafayette gotta try the over again. Worse pitchers tonight to start and Lafayette s pen is not overly strong. Need one team to bust out quick though.This is probably the one I feel best about.

[EaglesPhan36]

Holy Shit ... epic win for TCU. TO OMAHA!!!