MLB Dogs [+135, +199] Line-Shopping & Project-Accounting Thread

pacocn · 06-03-14, 10:16 PM

Fit, best of luck wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiise guy.

fitguy67 · 06-03-14, 10:36 PM

i resemble that remark...all we can hope for in the grand scheme of sbr is that we, after all is said and done, be remembered as having--or at least having honestly tried to--run a "curly" or even a "schemp" quality thread (poor "curly joe")...

i've taken the pressure off myself big-tym here by not having to MAKE any picks...they're auto-culled from any odds-hub...so i'll be able to focus on all those OTHER things as my auto-picked/hand-shopped plays breathe $ in and out as they play this most maddening of games

tons of respect for guys like you who really call the shots...i'll be wanting to "pick your brains" from tym to tym, for example to re-consider a policy on the best time to shop for dogs (i've always assumed it to be later...closer to game tym...when john Q public has to put on his JMorrison chase play on the favorite, or otherwise back the popular team...but i'm open to other ideas from u guyz who've been at it longer than i have)

EXhoosier10 · 06-03-14, 10:52 PM

literally playing all +135 to +199 dogs?

fitguy67 · 06-03-14, 11:36 PM

yes, an avg of 5-plays or so a day...but no need to burn any brain cells deciding which ones...so can concentrate on the shopping...

betting to WIN rather than risk makes you appreciate the importance of the shopping, as well...as you're looking to literally "get the best price" on your lottery-ticket to payout exactly 1 unit...

tonight i got my shots to win my 50-buck "units" at prices of just
$26.32 (PHI +190)
$37.04 (TOR +135)
$32.89 (SEA +152)
$34.73 (MIN +144)
$32.05 (ARZ +156)
$29.41 (CHW +170)

meaning i "spent" just $192.44 (only 3.85 units) for 6 separate shots at a unit...
this is another thing that makes the prospect far less "scary" than seems on the surface...at these prices, and using the "TO WIN" protocol...it doesn't cost NEARLY as much as you'd think to back that many plays

_______________

compare this to someone also-automatically putting a similar amount (as it just cost me to back my whole "all 6 dogs" card) to back just one or maybe 2 heavy favorites that every book in the universe knows Morrison is all over...long term there's gotta be value here...with so many followers of various well-known chases plugging their noses as they pay any price to "not get left out" when the big-favorite wins the chase-saving game...

by auto-buying up what the lemmings are auto-ignorant of (the chances of the team that "isn't supposed to" win)...i get "value" by default=flip side of the $-foolishness of the "square" fave-nut-huggers/chase-system followers

bababooey13 · 06-04-14, 12:02 AM

atta boy fitguy, keep this shit up.

pacocn · 06-04-14, 12:12 AM

Fit, I've always told my wife, that i will pass on hitting the malls to shop,
so her and my daughter have formed a very nice shopping team. For the 1st
time in my life i am excited to shop. I will cut the coupons, if you could look for
the thrift stores.

Lets go on a $hopping $pree

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 12:57 AM

"how much are those doggies in the windows?..."

______________

at least our shopping TRIES to help pay for theirs...(how altruistic can gambling be?)

and we keep paying for it...(eg. with "can't win" questions like...do these jeans i bought make my ass look big?

)

accurate answer u can think but NEVER say: "no, the jeans don't make your ass look big...your ass makes your ass look big"...(remembered from a standup routine)

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by bababooey13

atta boy fitguy, keep this shit up.

hey, bbb...i just put an unofficial splash (of $27.12) from today's "soft launch" overdue blast of blind luck...to TRY to win $50 on "mon fece"...seems to be more effective when i don't try, tho...but give MF a chance to start payin' bak some of the millions he owes us...

my ONLY tennis bet for Wednesday...the rest just have that "damned if you do, damned if you don't" air to them

bababooey13 · 06-04-14, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

hey, bbb...i just put an unofficial splash (of $27.12) from today's "soft launch" overdue blast of blind luck...to TRY to win $50 on "mon fece"...seems to be more effective when i don't try, tho...but give MF a chance to start payin' bak some of the millions he owes us...

my ONLY tennis bet for Wednesday...the rest just have that "damned if you do, damned if you don't" air to them

gl buddy. i took the over in the monfils match and under in the nadal match. i dont trust gael to win it but i think he'll take a set or 2.

pacocn · 06-04-14, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

hey, bbb...i just put an unofficial splash (of $27.12) from today's "soft launch" overdue blast of blind luck...to TRY to win $50 on "mon fece"...seems to be more effective when i don't try, tho...but give MF a chance to start payin' bak some of the millions he owes us...

my ONLY tennis bet for Wednesday...the rest just have that "damned if you do, damned if you don't" air to them

Hey Fit, do you know of any jeans that may make our manhood appear a bit bigger?

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 10:09 AM

in everyday-life attire, no...but with swimwear, there's always the opportunity to enhance your natural blessings with a well-placed (and perhaps, well carved) potato...

but as the old joke goes...make sure to put it in the front...

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 10:10 AM

yesterday's (this thread's day ZERO...therefore unofficial/prel-launch) card went 5-1...but still very much worth a comment...

dogs like this come in historically about 40%...i like fibonacci numbers and ratios (and decks of playing cards) so a model we can use all year is this...think of us winning a pick like drawing one of the five "royal" ranks...out of the full range of 13 ranks in the deck, this means we expect to win at a 38.46% (=5/13) clip...a bit low vs. long-run history from what i gather...so, just as some people keep their watches a few minutes too fast on purpose, to aid punctuality...preparing for a slighty-crappy "picking royals from a deck" kind of year is just about perfect as far as useful analogies and "rules of thumb" go...

this corresponds to a break-even price of almost exactly +160 (as 1/38.46% gives the decimal price of 2.6)...hence why i emphasize "shopping skill"so much...altho anything from +135 is kosher...we aim to maintain a "fleet average" as far north of the magic +160 as possible to give ourselves as good a shot as possible to end the year smiling

now how surprised would you be to draw five royal cards out of 6 (not tremendously so, right?)...that's going 5-1 in big dogs...

on the other hand, how about drawing just 1 royal card out of 6 (again you wouldn't call the local media)...so going 1-5, or even 0-6 doesn't indicate anything of importance either...

on a typical day's 3 to plays 8 plays (exactly analagous to a draw of from 3 to 8 cards)...the full range of results from
"All and Oh"

eg 6-0 (on the max-pleasure side), to
"Oh and All"

eg. 0-6 ...and everything in between of course (the closer to the "in betweeniest" the least surprising result of all...with pleaure and pain created in obvious ways as we deviate from there to one of the extremes)

anyhow, ANY end-of-day result is plausible, and should be accepted with an even-temper... everything will balance out to realisitic levels over the course of the season...but as for day-day, well, best advice is to choose bet sizes so that going "oh and all" makes you feel but not

i suggest you "set aside" a segregated roll exclusively for this experiment/experience...and commit to targeting exactly 2% of yesterday's balance on each play you make today...rinse lather repeat...

with a little luck (eg. even exceeding the break-even win% implied by our full season of shopping by a tiny bit will mean a good season...) but even if we end up a bit worse than that, net unlucky with regard to dog-win% ...we're still not doomed, because we have our daily sensible (and deceivingly-small) adjustments to our $-targeted figures that'll helpfully dampen the $-subtractions of the losing streaks AND jet-propel the $-additions associated with the winning streaks...stay tuned

...yesterday was this thread's day ZERO...i'll be bak in a bit with a hit on the 12:10 game, if i can get it anywhere above +135...otherwise, nothing till closer to the 19:xx ish games (cuz pit/sdg at 1840 almost certainly a no-play, unless a pitching change helps us out there)

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 11:03 AM

looks like some late home-fave chase-$ may be coming in on ATL (many well known ones use the "home team must close at -145 or greater favorite to be a play", especially for a 1st game of a series--which this one isn't, to be fair...corresponds nicely, i just notice to this system's choice for a lower dog-price cutoff of +135)...

seemed like some action was "trying" to break thru the -145 barrier...in financial markets, it would be called a "key resistance" level that many big players like Soros like to push a currency thru, in order to "trigger" system orders that they can quickly profit from )...when unsuccessful and the chase-following public didn't jump on ...it was quickly abandoned)...

anyhow, the 12:10 SEA/ATL game looked like it just might sneak into +135/-145 territory about 5 minutes before gametime...but subsided...

so nothing till 19ish, all times Eastern(Daylight), GMT-5, a la New York

btw...a good free "at a glance" odds-comparison site is provided by sbr

Betting Odds: Moneylines, Point Spreads & Totals for Today

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

Free Betting Odds and line movements in real time at Sportsbook Review. Check out Sportsbook Review's live odds comparison table, with lines and spreads for all major sports.

alamo · 06-04-14, 11:05 AM

Fit good luck with the system. Those lines have nearly moved 40% from last night in your favour with Pinny.

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 11:31 AM

looks light a light day to start things off...with only 3 locked on to qualify
PHI & MIA both at 19ish
CHW at 22ish

and only two others with a reasonable chance to qualify (NYY and BOS, both 19ish)

_____

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Fit good luck with the system. Those lines have nearly moved 40% from last night in your favour with Pinny.

hey alamo,

those games i posted in #1 were already in the hopper when i started this thread...i just put them there as an example to show what a typical day's slate would look like...

didn't count at all, record-wise...but the fact that they happened to go 5-1, when they were clearly more likely to have gone 1-5...and the idea that we must be prepared for any results, pleasurable and painful, because they're all plausible (and all consistent with making $ over a whole season)...well the fairly-extreme result gave me a nice example to lay out some of these important points before the thread's official action gets underway

so right now, before any day#1 action, we stand at this full set of numbers

Since thread launch
$Targeted: 0 (on all plays, whether W's or L's)
$ Risked: 0 (on all plays, whether W's or L's)
$Won: 0 (additions to the roll as a result of the W's)
$Lost: 0 (subtractions from the roll as a result of the L's)
#Won: 0
#Lost: 0
#Calendar Days: 0
#Business Days ("days with plays"): 0

I'll maintain this format throughout, but will introduce some single-letter names for each of these later to streamline the format considerably

these are the 8 primary measurements...anything else you might want in terms of assessing performance you can get by properly combining these primary figures...
eg. $netted = #3 - #4...
eg. average price paid over the full fleet = (#1/#2) +1, in decimal format...

etc. etc.

note: i will also be keeping, but not reporting a few side-tallies as well:

#Pushed (game played to its final W/L resolution, but game graded as a "push" due to the nature of the bet...usually the score landing on a whole number)
#Aborted (started but not resolved to W/L result...and $ returned by book)
#Cancelled (never started...AND $ returned by book)

All three of these, of course are variations on the theme of INeffective (ie. having no effect with regard to the purpose of this whole exercise = making $) plays
My philosophy/protocol IGNORES ALL $-INEFFECTIVE PLAYS such as this, as they are IN EFFECT = NON-PLAYS

All my accounting is "Effective Plays Only"...meaning

All types of $Ineffective (aka. "Pushed", "Cancelled", "Voided" or "Stake-Returned" etc...anything having zero-effect on my bankroll) Plays are Intentionally Ignored.

_____________

If you are a totals player and/or make use of the run-spread in general, and even-number versions of it (such as the -1RL or +1RL) in particular...then keeping a tally of the "#Pushed" may have some use...as i'm not ruling out RL's (especially the +RL's appropriate for the unloved doggies i focus on) in this thread in the future or with other projects...so, i'll keep a tally of these NON-PLAYS as well as the PLAYS...but will NOT report them...

same with $Risked and $Targeted figures as well...they--in fact all $ figures you'll see will include ONLY that due to completed (aka. "realized", more on that in later posts...once we get some "unrealized" plays in the hopper..) $-EFFECTIVE PLAYS RESULTING IN A "W" OR "L"...since if/when the staked-$ are returned...it becomes a non-play which has neither risk nor target
___________

thought i'd take the opportunity to lay out some of this boring fine-print stuff, so when knuckleheads down the line say "what about...?" we just say..."go back to page #1, and might even give them a post# if it's handy

Sixla · 06-04-14, 12:36 PM

sounds interesting, ill be tuning in. Hope this cash's long term!! Enjoy reading your posts Fit, keep it rollin and BOL

Capper1124 · 06-04-14, 12:38 PM

Good stuff.

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 12:54 PM

nothing till 19ish

Sixla · 06-04-14, 01:01 PM

hey Fit, are u following the Labouchere system with this?

alamo · 06-04-14, 01:23 PM

Appreciate the reply Fit ! Thanks for explanation

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Sixla

hey Fit, are u following the Labouchere system with this?

in a nutshell

after running thru many 1000-play simulations, i now appreciate that the original thread benefitted from not having to sail thru protracted "much lower than expected win%" waters in its existence...i've replaced it with something similarly better than flat-$ during normal times...but much better than line-clearing methods under extreme conditions of W-L sequencing

compared to line-clearing methods...frequently-adjusted flat%-of-roll regimes are more disaster-resistant in bad (improbably L-rich) times...and more opportunistic in good (improbably W-rich) times...in a word, a regime of betting to win a frequently-adjusted flat-%-of-roll is more "robust" than labouchere-based bet-sizing

meanwhile, i've retained completely the underlying and brilliantly-simple play selection...anything and everything in the +135- +199 range... and added in a strong emphasis on getting the absolutely best price you can when buying in that range

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 05:49 PM

shopping tym guyz; PHI, MIA, CHW for sure, BOS maybe

1. PHI +177 (tsf) @was, 1905

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 05:54 PM

2. MIA +197 (pin) @ tam, 1910

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 06:01 PM

1. PHI +177 (tsf) @was, 1905edt -28.25 / +50

2. MIA +197 (pin) @ tam, 1910edt -25.38 / +50

that's it for now...CHW at lad almost a sure go at 2210, could get now at +165 heritage, opened at +181...

line following weenies...should i grb it now or wait for LAD to strengthen before 1st pitch?

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 06:02 PM

remember: all plays action...and bet to WIN (not risk, as you normally would) exactly 2% of an account segregated for this project

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 09:05 PM

just added last play #3 to bottom

1. PHI +177 (tsf) @was, 1905edt -28.25 / +50

2. MIA +197 (pin) @ tam, 1910edt -25.38 / +50

3. CHW +167 (tsf) @lad, 2210edt -29.94 / +50

whtsox13 · 06-04-14, 09:17 PM

Here's hoping verbosity, experience, and enthusiasm translate into game winning picks

fitguy67 · 06-04-14, 10:19 PM

the lines themselves call the shots...i simply adjust each day's new $-target to 2% of wherever yesterday's results left me bank-wise...that and try to get the best prices on any dog the market tells me to back...

a capping-free system like this is more fun/less-stressful as you're just as "curious" as anyone else as to what the day's results will bring...without feeling especially "proud" of the winners or "ashamed" of the losers...just the same old pure dollar-driven "pleasure" or "pain" that everyone else feels...

they're not "my picks" so there's no psychological burden attached to them...they're just what the market gave me...
and like anyone _______ enough to follow, i hope that each day's grab-bag of results is a good one (but know that they ALL can't be)...and i know that the net $ results will unfold gradually over the season...

here's to a fun ride

fitguy67 · 06-05-14, 01:04 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s&feature=kp

would someone who's appreciative of the +2.87% (+1.435 "units" @ 2%) change in your account balance that the first day has blessed us with...please give the OP a careful dolt-proof step-by-step tutorial as to

how one goes about posting a youtube link such as that at the top of this post to a video window that is "ready to play" with a big "play button" triangle thingy just begging to be clicked...you know, walk me thru how to do what 98% of the posters already know how to do ......

until someone teaches me that one thing that has both amazed and eluded me for my entire sbr "career"...until that time...well, i am officially "on strike"...and holding this thread "hostage" until my demand for education is met

i'd appreciate it much if someone would "wise me up" in this regard...(that's the "carrot" side of my request...the "stick" is my vow to never again grace this tread with my verbosity unless and until said schooling is provided me by a gambling "good Samaritan")...

submissions must be organized, thorough and "step by step" in nature...

that is all for now

Sixla · 06-05-14, 07:21 AM

im not saying this money management system isn't productive but its just tough to wrap my mind around hitting that +197 dog in Miami and it paying out the same a +135 dog would. Just seems to be getting shorted, but I know on the other side of the coin that within a loss u aren't losing as much money...

rkelly110 · 06-05-14, 08:18 AM

Checking in to wish you luck on your MLB adventure. Off to a good start.

Yeah, as long as I've been here, IDK how to post pictures or videos either. There's little icons above in the post box.
One is insert image and another has insert video.

Many of us don't have multiple sports books to line shop, so your picks might not match up to someone who has
one book. The odds shouldn't be that far off though.

I usually bet 1/2 hour before the games also, but the odds are usually better @ 11 am EST. IMO

Your method of betting is to bet to win 2% of your roll up or down? To win $50 is 2% of $2500, but that's per game.

I might have to try this, since my ass is being handed to me by doing it my way.

fitguy67 · 06-05-14, 11:48 AM

prev roll = 2500
new roll = 2500 +71.75 = 2571.75
.:new unit = "to win" amount for each and every play today = 2571.75/50 = $51.44

there's method to the madness...and madness to the method

fitguy67 · 06-05-14, 11:55 AM

first up, 1305 OAK +140 sia =sportsinteraction (god bless "square books" like sia and blowdog that charge their trapped "one-book" customers huge chalk on the favorites ...it leaves nice "dog-ears" like this sometimes...even at the other end of their huge 20cent spread)

Betting Odds: Moneylines, Point Spreads & Totals for Today

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

Free Betting Odds and line movements in real time at Sportsbook Review. Check out Sportsbook Review's live odds comparison table, with lines and spreads for all major sports.

risk $36.74
to win $51.44......................... -36.74/ 51.44