Phils ML or Brewers -1?

[RollinDo]

Going back and forth between these 2...like Garza ' s success at home and vs Twinkies line-up. Brewers -1 (-109)
Like Phils for +100 to even up series with Muts. Hernandez had been surprisingly solid at home while Colon has been bad on the road except for game at Nats a couple weeks ago.
Phils (+100)

Thoughts?

[isukatchess1]

Phillies are definetly due to win a home game vs the muts...let down time for twins after miracle win yesterday and having to travel to mil doesn't help them...but the way things went last week dunno anything anymore.

[jgold254]

Run lines have been burning me lately. I should be up over a G with my past 3 days if it weren't for the RL on LAD last night and tailing DET, again. Those two teams always choke when I ride them. The Phils bet isn't bad... just hard to predict Colon.

[RollinDo]

Yeah, both Dodgers and Tigers have been on a lot of people's bad list lately.
I backed Tigers on Sat. And lost (juice was -150!)
Also backed Kershaw vs Bailey and Haven vs Cole and lost both.
Looking back, why did I back Haren?

[altieriflyers]

Huge Phillies fan here. It`s Mets or stay away. Colon is starting to prove he still has something left in the tank. He pitched great in his last two turns where he allowed two runs total, covering 15.1 innings of work. He doesn't beat himself, as he has walked just seven hitters in over 64 innings. The Mets pen has been sharp of late as well, allowing nine runs in their last 43 innings of work. The Phils on the other side aside of eight losses in their last 12 games,have been victimized at home in 18 of their 30 games on the season. Mets have taken advantage of poor home teams where they are now 7-1 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing home record. My Phillies are even worse at home vs. a team with a winning road record at just a woeful 6-15 in their last 21. And lastly the Mets have been lethal in this park where they are 18-6 in their last 24. It makes no sense betting the Phillies this year. You just can`t trust them.

[posey]

Rollin, I think you ask the wrong question. Backing Haren wouldn't be too bad in general this season as he has done quite well. ERA, xFIP and SIERA are all very good. I would turn the question to the other side: why would you fade Cole who has/had very similar numbers to Haren, and Cole pitching against a Dodgers team which is having problems at home all season long? Their 12-17 home record is not random, they may have had a 47-34 home record last season, but taking into account that this record was the worst of all teams which made it to the playoffs in '13 I would have stayed away from this bet in general. Only my opinion on this one.

[isukatchess1]

I think its just time to auto fade the public...gotta change things up...doing pretty well this year til last week...now baseball is basically all alone with no other sports to bet on...things are about to get stupid I think.

[mohye1980]

i would take the brewers but split your bet half 3/4 ml and 1/4 rl. that way you pay less juice. 100 bet would net you 83. that way just in case they don't cover the rl you still hit the ml.

garza has been on a roll lately at home and even though its a small sample size he does well against the hitters he has faced on the twinkles.

[posey]

I think its just time to auto fade the public...gotta change things up...doing pretty well this year til last week...now baseball is basically all alone with no other sports to bet on...things are about to get stupid I think.

As for me I never care about the public. I place my money on bets in which I have confidence. If the public thinks the same way, fine. If it doesn't, fine. I solely go by numbers and nothing else. Everyone has to find his way. The one may be a stats guy, the other may be a chaser. Everything can work as long as you pick the right criterias.

[farmhouse1]

Like the over in the brewers game

[isukatchess1]

I was a stats guy...it just didn't go well last week...guess ill just keep grinding it out.

[RollinDo]

Rollin, I think you ask the wrong question. Backing Haren wouldn't be too bad in general this season as he has done quite well. ERA, xFIP and SIERA are all very good. I would turn the question to the other side: why would you fade Cole who has/had very similar numbers to Haren, and Cole pitching against a Dodgers team which is having problems at home all season long? Their 12-17 home record is not random, they may have had a 47-34 home record last season, but taking into account that this record was the worst of all teams which made it to the playoffs in '13 I would have stayed away from this bet in general. Only my opinion on this one.

To be honest, I had no idea Dodgers record was that bad at home...In fact, thought they at least had a .500 record at home...just overlooked that...Fortunately was the only game I bet on the series...was going to bet on Ru on Sat. But didn't realize it was an afternoon game.

[drfunkmaster]

mets and brewers over

[Ringo]

Like the Phils tonight. Hernandez has been pitching well and limited the mets to 1 run in 5 innings a few weeks ago. Also hasnt let up more than 2 runs in last 4 starts. Definitely worth a shot.

[whtsox13]

Neither Mets or Twins throwing their best lineup on the field today.

[RollinDo]

Like the Phils tonight. Hernandez has been pitching well and limited the mets to 1 run in 5 innings a few weeks ago. Also hasnt let up more than 2 runs in last 4 starts. Definitely worth a shot.

Thanks. I have Mets ML (-110) and Phils +1.5 (-150)
Hopefully hit both sides...at least hope Phils win.

[RollinDo]

That was a wasted play...never bet against the Mets. This team destroys me every time. Phils are one of worst teams.
Should have just stuck with my 2 best plays for today: Brewers -1 and M's ML...got some advice to start tailing the sharp cappers on here...been doing that, but 0-3 so far...except for Public Enemy.

[RollinDo]

Tomorrow up ' s Rockies -1, and Braves series....maybe Reds ML.
Not over thinking this.

[drfunkmaster]

mets and brewers over