Tracking my live MLB bets

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  • DiggityDaggityDo
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-30-08
    • 81450

    #631
    Saturday: +2.00 units
    YTD: +16.26 units
    Comment
    • DiggityDaggityDo
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-30-08
      • 81450

      #632
      That was pretty much my first time doing live bets in college ball. I'm glad it worked out, pulling in +4 units from NCAA.
      Comment
      • DiggityDaggityDo
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 11-30-08
        • 81450

        #633
        Tigers Vs Indians
        Proposition:Game Winner ML
        Outcome: DET +463

        Bot 7th, down 2-1
        Comment
        • DiggityDaggityDo
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-30-08
          • 81450

          #634
          Red Sox Vs Yankees
          Proposition:Game Winner
          Outcome: BOS −4.0+197

          Bot 8th, up 7-3
          Comment
          • DiggityDaggityDo
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-30-08
            • 81450

            #635
            Pirates Vs Cardinals
            Proposition:Game Winner ML
            Outcome: PIT +975

            Top 6th, down 5-2
            Comment
            • DiggityDaggityDo
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 11-30-08
              • 81450

              #636
              Rangers Vs Royals
              Proposition:Game Winner ML
              Outcome: TEX +162

              Bot 8th, tied 1-1
              Comment
              • DiggityDaggityDo
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-30-08
                • 81450

                #637
                Mariners Vs Athletics
                Proposition:Game Winner
                Outcome: SEA −6.0−107

                Top 8th, up 6-0
                Comment
                • DiggityDaggityDo
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-30-08
                  • 81450

                  #638
                  Today: +4.53 units
                  YTD: +20.79 units
                  Comment
                  • DiggityDaggityDo
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-30-08
                    • 81450

                    #639
                    Phillies Vs Braves
                    Proposition:Game Winner ML
                    Outcome: PHI +1252

                    Top 7th, down 7-4
                    Comment
                    • DiggityDaggityDo
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 11-30-08
                      • 81450

                      #640
                      Pirates Vs Cardinals
                      Proposition:Game Winner ML
                      Outcome: PIT +185

                      Bot 9th, tied 0-0
                      Comment
                      • DiggityDaggityDo
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 11-30-08
                        • 81450

                        #641
                        Nationals Vs Dodgers
                        Proposition:Game Winner ML
                        Outcome: WAS +118

                        Bot 6th, tied 0-0
                        Comment
                        • EXhoosier10
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-06-09
                          • 3122

                          #642
                          Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                          Pirates Vs Cardinals
                          Proposition:Game Winner ML
                          Outcome: PIT +185

                          Bot 9th, tied 0-0
                          Average team scores in an inning ~66% of the time. Betting LRRLR wouldn't score off of Melancon's second inning, then hoping 7-9 for pit would outscore 7-9 for stl. Stl still has Neshak, Maness, and Freeman (2 rhp and a lhp). Not sure I'd take those odds.
                          Anyway, just thinking out loud. Good luck
                          Comment
                          • DiggityDaggityDo
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 11-30-08
                            • 81450

                            #643
                            Giants Vs Rockies
                            Proposition:Game Winner ML
                            Outcome: SFO −152

                            Bot 5th, up 2-1
                            Comment
                            • EXhoosier10
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-06-09
                              • 3122

                              #644
                              Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                              Average team scores in an inning ~66% of the time. Betting LRRLR wouldn't score off of Melancon's second inning, then hoping 7-9 for pit would outscore 7-9 for stl. Stl still has Neshak, Maness, and Freeman (2 rhp and a lhp). Not sure I'd take those odds.
                              Anyway, just thinking out loud. Good luck
                              I rescind my statement. only ~30% of innings score a run. Still not in love due to the 10th and whatnot, but not as difficult to see an edge. Need pit to score and two scoreless from stl. that's .30 * .7^2 = .147 = 14.7% Completely naive assumption says you need +600 odds to be +EV
                              Comment
                              • DiggityDaggityDo
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 11-30-08
                                • 81450

                                #645
                                Hoosier, I see you like math.
                                Comment
                                • DiggityDaggityDo
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 11-30-08
                                  • 81450

                                  #646
                                  Giants Vs Rockies
                                  Proposition:Game Winner ML
                                  Outcome: SFO +743

                                  Bot 6th, down 5-2
                                  Comment
                                  • DiggityDaggityDo
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 11-30-08
                                    • 81450

                                    #647
                                    Tigers Vs Indians
                                    Proposition:Game Winner ML
                                    Outcome: DET +300

                                    Top 4th, down 2-0
                                    Comment
                                    • DiggityDaggityDo
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 11-30-08
                                      • 81450

                                      #648
                                      Tigers Vs Indians
                                      Proposition:Game Winner ML
                                      Outcome: DET +1339

                                      Bot 5th, down 4-0
                                      Comment
                                      • DiggityDaggityDo
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 11-30-08
                                        • 81450

                                        #649
                                        Angels Vs Astros
                                        Proposition:Game Winner ML
                                        Outcome: LAA +313

                                        Bot 7th, down 2-1
                                        Comment
                                        • DiggityDaggityDo
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 11-30-08
                                          • 81450

                                          #650
                                          CHIVAS USA Vs. SEATTLE
                                          Proposition:Next Goal Scored (2:4)
                                          Outcome: CHIVAS USA +353

                                          After 69 min
                                          Comment
                                          • DiggityDaggityDo
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 11-30-08
                                            • 81450

                                            #651
                                            DJOKOVIC, N Vs. MURRAY, A
                                            Proposition:Player to win the set 4 ?
                                            Outcome: MURRAY, A +209
                                            Comment
                                            • DiggityDaggityDo
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 11-30-08
                                              • 81450

                                              #652
                                              ^^^^ He was down 1-0 when I made that bet. And had AD.
                                              Comment
                                              • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 11-30-08
                                                • 81450

                                                #653
                                                Today: -8.34 units
                                                YTD: +12.45 units
                                                Comment
                                                • fitguy67
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                  • 5082

                                                  #654
                                                  Russia KHL, Barys Astana +0 (aka. DNB), +155 (Hm team, down a goal, end of 2nd)

                                                  then again at +240 (still between periods)...

                                                  not "pounding"...each to win a unit, so works out to about: risk 1 to win 2 (good chance of push)

                                                  Barys favored to score next -135 and was -140 fave pre-game
                                                  Comment
                                                  • fitguy67
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 03-13-11
                                                    • 5082

                                                    #655
                                                    KazakhstanU21/FranceU21...was typing in France TSNxt...and of course they score b4 i submit...

                                                    but Astana scores the equalizer early in 3rd so we're free-rolling for them to win in regulation
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 11-30-08
                                                      • 81450

                                                      #656
                                                      How'd you do, Fitguy?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #657
                                                        push, well better than a sharp stick in the eye

                                                        update: thot it pushed...but it won...

                                                        like finding money u forgot about in pants going into the laundry...doesn't happen enough tho'
                                                        home-faves down 1 after two scored 2 to win (i thot they just tied and won in OT which woulda pushed)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #658
                                                          lotsa goals in those euro hockey leagues...almost never a scoreless period...i look for a favored home team to be down one goal at end of 2nd and hit'em with a sensible combination of +0, -0.5...late in 3rd u can even pick'em up sometimes +0.5 at ok odds...these leagues are just as stupidly-prone to going OT as the NHL, so a one goal lead with a few minutes gets picked off often and the +0.5 pays well when your team that was down one ties it up

                                                          doesn't work well in soccer cuz way fewer goals scored on avg
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fitguy67
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-13-11
                                                            • 5082

                                                            #659
                                                            for live i like tennis, MLB, and hockey...for soccer, i follow u (cuz that game just kills me...the "draw" result creates this massive "blind spot" that i've never been able to deal with)...

                                                            you do well with your "winning team keeps foot on the gas" (to score next) bets and am happy to follow along when i see one in time
                                                            Comment
                                                            • fitguy67
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-13-11
                                                              • 5082

                                                              #660
                                                              i kinda' like SwitzerlandU21 to score next (down 1-0 to UkraineU21 at 39')...whaddya' think?

                                                              ahhh...just for the hell of it...decided to "embrace the draw" at +333...way better price than switz to score next and leaves way more ways to eventually win...smallsies
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 11-30-08
                                                                • 81450

                                                                #661
                                                                Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                                i kinda' like SwitzerlandU21 to score next (down 1-0 to UkraineU21 at 39')...whaddya' think?
                                                                That ones not for me. But if you bet it I will be rooting for you!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • fitguy67
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                                  • 5082

                                                                  #662
                                                                  Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                  That ones not for me. But if you bet it I will be rooting for you!
                                                                  ended just taking a flier on the draw +333.. (with swissU21's down a goal at the half)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 11-30-08
                                                                    • 81450

                                                                    #663
                                                                    CROATIA Vs. CYPRUS
                                                                    Proposition:Who wins the rest of the 1st half ? (1:0)
                                                                    Outcome: CROATIA +145

                                                                    After 29 min
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 11-30-08
                                                                      • 81450

                                                                      #664
                                                                      CROATIA Vs. CYPRUS
                                                                      Proposition:Next Goal Scored (2:0)
                                                                      Outcome: CROATIA −169

                                                                      After 60 min
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 11-30-08
                                                                        • 81450

                                                                        #665
                                                                        BELGIUM Vs. AUSTRALIA
                                                                        Proposition:Next Goal Scored (1:0)
                                                                        Outcome: BELGIUM −151

                                                                        Halftime
                                                                        Comment
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