MLB - Monday, 4/21/14

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Monday

Diamondbacks +121 (Heritage)


YTD: 28-49, -17.64

[DoubleR90]

Why LT WHY!!!! Is this really the best/first play you've come up with? Your taking the worst team in baseball against the next worst team in baseball and your taking a road dog with a 9.0+ ERA pitcher against a 3.00 ERA home pitcher, and all the while your only getting +121 for your troubles?

You are better than this LT. There are so many good games/spots you should be looking at today. This game is not one of them.

[LT Profits]

Why LT WHY!!!! Is this really the best/first play you've come up with? Your taking the worst team in baseball against the next worst team in baseball and your taking a road dog with a 9.0+ ERA pitcher against a 3.00 ERA home pitcher, and all the while your only getting +121 for your troubles?

You are better than this LT. There are so many good games/spots you should be looking at today. This game is not one of them.

Actually, you answered your own question. Wrap your head around the Cubs being -130ish over anybody, Also, Arizona is not as bad as its record and the Cubs probably are. Arroyo only had one bad start, he was decent his first two starts and he was excellent vs. the Cubs last year. I expected regression from Wood this year after he outperformed his peripherals last year when he had a rather high 3.89 FIP and a worse 4.50 xFIP, as he was helped by an abnormal .248 BABIP. That regression might have begun when he allowed 11 hits in 5.2 innings vs. the Mets at Citi Field last time out, where the Mets are hitting around .180 this year, and he was not good in his only start vs. Arizona last year.

[Big Bear]

LT is right Bronson Arroyo is a good pitcher.

however even though Wood for the Cubs is 0-2 last year he was pretty good.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition at 11:00am ET!

2 MLB Plays Monday

Orioles / Red Sox OVER 8.5 +105 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks +121 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

Actually, you answered your own question. Wrap your head around the Cubs being -130ish over anybody, Also, Arizona is not as bad as its record and the Cubs probably are. Arroyo only had one bad start, he was decent his first two starts and he was excellent vs. the Cubs last year. I expected regression from Wood this year after he outperformed his peripherals last year when he had a rather high 3.89 FIP and a worse 4.50 xFIP, as he was helped by an abnormal .248 BABIP. That regression might have begun when he allowed 11 hits in 5.2 innings vs. the Mets at Citi Field last time out, where the Mets are hitting around .180 this year, and he was not good in his only start vs. Arizona last year.

Scratch that, it was the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Does not change anything else I said though.

[No coincidences]

2 MLB Plays Monday

Orioles / Red Sox OVER 8.5 +105 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks +121 (Heritage)

If you lose this one after a 6-run third inning....

I think you need a karma cleansing or something.

[Big Bear]

nice hit on the over LT!

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Monday

Orioles / Red Sox OVER 8.5 +105 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks +121 (Heritage)
Astros +230 (Heritage)

[Evito07]

Feeling much better about my dback bet. Get er done

[DoubleR90]

LT is right Bronson Arroyo is a good pitcher.

however even though Wood for the Cubs is 0-2 last year he was pretty good.

Feeling much better about my dback bet. Get er done

Sorry LT and company, it's not looking so great for you guys. I didn't touch that game so I genuinely hope they come back for you guys, I'd never wish a loss on my fellow bettors. But even if your reasoning for the D-backs game actually was sound and carried you off to a win, how do you see more edge in this game over all the other options today? Sometimes its just not that complicated guys.

[jay89]

solid play on the astros. I was on the DBacks, saw the same upside there but man, they are just terrible. even bronson blew it, but they couldn't even get their bats up. Just an ongoing thing trend this year for me: regardless of pvb stats, if a team is bad vs southpaws this season, they are not going to get runs in the game.

[LT Profits]

Sorry LT and company, it's not looking so great for you guys. I didn't touch that game so I genuinely hope they come back for you guys, I'd never wish a loss on my fellow bettors. But even if your reasoning for the D-backs game actually was sound and carried you off to a win, how do you see more edge in this game over all the other options today? Sometimes its just not that complicated guys.

Well, I got +121 on a team that closed at +101 at Pinny. That in itself made it a good play, I would take that situation 100 times out of 100.

[No coincidences]

Well, I got +121 on a team that closed at +101 at Pinny. That in itself made it a good play, I would take that situation 100 times out of 100.

I would get into a long discussion with you again how in today's world I vehemently disagree with this, and how that line of thinking is archaic and a big reason why you're struggling so much, but I know it would only end with both of us posting a bang head icon.

[whtsox13]

Well, I got +121 on a team that closed at +101 at Pinny. That in itself made it a good play, I would take that situation 100 times out of 100.

Had A's +130, closed -106. Gonna call it a bad play as I lost money. Git 'em today, LT!

[No coincidences]

Taking yesterday as an example, you could've easily beaten the Pinny closing number on:

Detroit (opened -155, closed -195 -- lost)
St. Louis (opened +100, closed -120 -- lost)
Arizona (opened +120, closed +101 -- lost)
San Diego (opened +108, closed -105 -- lost)
Oakland (opened +115, closed -103 -- lost)

In fact, other than the Houston line, beating the closer on line moves of 13 cents or more would've netted you a record of 2-5 on Monday (Atlanta being the other) and 5-8 BTCL in all games.

Small sample size of a given night, I know, but I have found these 15-40 cent line moves in my team's favor after I've locked in a number overnight to be much more of a detriment than a determinant when hoping for a winner.

[LT Profits]

Taking yesterday as an example, you could've easily beaten the Pinny closing number on:

Detroit (opened -155, closed -195 -- lost)
St. Louis (opened +100, closed -120 -- lost)
Arizona (opened +120, closed +101 -- lost)
San Diego (opened +108, closed -105 -- lost)
Oakland (opened +115, closed -103 -- lost)

In fact, other than the Houston line, beating the closer on line moves of 13 cents or more would've netted you a record of 2-5 on Monday (Atlanta being the other) and 5-8 BTCL in all games.

Small sample size of a given night, I know, but I have found these 15-40 cent line moves in my team's favor after I've locked in a number overnight to be much more of a detriment than a determinant when hoping for a winner.

Track that over the entire season (or seasons) and see how it works out. If it loses long term, it would mean that MLB is an inefficient market, which I think everyone agrees is preposterous.

[LT Profits]

Had A's +130, closed -106. Gonna call it a bad play as I lost money. Git 'em today, LT!

Not really because if you are able to do that at a good clip, you will come out ahead long term in any efficient market.

[No coincidences]

Track that over the entire season (or seasons) and see how it works out. If it loses long term, it would mean that MLB is an inefficient market, which I think everyone agrees is preposterous.

I don't want to get into another huge discussion because it would just be a repeat of the conversation with yisman I had yesterday, but no, it wouldn't. The sooner you realize and accept this and understand that the "market" isn't as simplistic as defining efficiency at face value in today's game, the quicker you will turn your record around.

You are giving the market and its moves/numbers way too much credit and legitimacy. Think less linear.