Aces new dog system plays

[crinkledaces]

Ok trying something new follow if you want at your own risk.

Ok according to my system i have this box score for tomorrow early game



Boston will score 4.17 runs with 12.93 hits with buchholz going 5.36 innings and giving up 3.27 runs and their pen giving up 1.49 runs

Bal will score 4.76 runs with 13.34 hits with chen going 5.43 innings and giving up 2.92 runs and their pen giving up 1.25 runs

So with Bal @ +140 I see a +4.8 ev wager

Good luck guys this is my first stat system I have ever created feel free to comment

[crinkledaces]

one correction 13.34 and 12.93 are walks and hits combined

[crinkledaces]

So far so good

[crinkledaces]

ok play number 2 Cinn vs Pitt

Cinn 4.23 runs (10.25 hits and walks)
Pitt 3.51 runs (9.79 hits and walks)

Play on cinn @+120 +ev 8.64

[crinkledaces]

Game # 3 Mia vs Atl

Mia 3.52 runs (9.39 walks +hits )
Atl 3.8 runs (11.05 walks +hits )

No way to justify a -200 line on Atl with these numbers so Mia is the play @ +170

With my system Atl should be a -121 fav not -200 +ev of 13.2

[crinkledaces]

Game # 4 Arizona vs Chicago

Arizona 3.66 runs (13.15 walks + hits)
Chicago 4.65 runs (14.8 walks + hits)

System says chicago should be favored by -156 so with that in mind
+ev on the cubbies at -130 +ev of 6.04

[sunshine11]

Very interesting! I guess your computer figures it out or is it you? See how plays go tonight before I get my feet wet. GL

[sunshine11]

In the late games is the bullpen factored in the run total for both teams?

[crinkledaces]

Play # 5 SD vs Milw

SD 3.03 runs (9.56 walks + hits )
Milw 3.43 (8.79 walks + hits )

System play is gonna be the under on this game since the over/under is 8 @ -110
my predicted line should be Milw -120 so if you wanted to play a side it would be Milw @ -110 with a +ev factor of +2.67

[crinkledaces]

Yes in all the games the bull pen is factored im taking the avg innings pitched for the starters and then allowing the calculations for the rest of the game for the pen. But im yet to develop a factor for extra innings. Im also breaking it down to the available bull pen vs the whole pen

[crinkledaces]

Very interesting! I guess your computer figures it out or is it you? See how plays go tonight before I get my feet wet. GL

By computer I mean by hand.....

[crinkledaces]

nice to see in the bal vs bos game i was spot on on with bal's hits and runs thats a good sign!!

[crinkledaces]

system play #6 SF vs Col

SF 4.44 runs (11.1 walks + hits )
Col 4.96 runs (11.7 walks + hits)

My system line is -133 so thats in line with vegas but I have a combined score of only 9.4 runs so the play here is the under 10.5@-120

[crinkledaces]

system play #7 Phil vs LAD

Phil 5.03 runs (12.94 runs + walks)
LAD 5.33 runs (13.86 runs + walks)

System says to take the over 7 @ev money

[sunshine11]

Good stuff.

[crinkledaces]

system play # 8 Chicago vs Detroit

Wsox 4.26 runs (12.24 walks + hits)
Det 5.07 runs (11.92 walks + hits)

System play on Wsox Line should be -148 on DET Play on WSOX @+ev of 7.71

[crinkledaces]

System play #9 Houston vs Seattle

Houston 2.30 runs (7.5 walks and hits)
Seattle 4.30 runs (12.3 walks and hits)

System says there is slight value on the over of 6.5 @ even money. But is real thin value looks like vegas has this line fairly spot on

[akay47]

Looks good playa

[sunshine11]

7-3 all together if I'm right. Good job

[iloseagain]

system play # 8 Chicago vs Detroit

Wsox 4.26 runs (12.24 walks + hits)
Det 5.07 runs (11.92 walks + hits)

System play on Wsox Line should be -148 on DET Play on WSOX @+ev of 7.71

what the hell is the + ev of 7.71 and all that mean

[crinkledaces]

Ev mean expected value. Based on the money line and the line my system comes up the spread.


Here is how i figure ev at the end of my calculations..


ex
lets say my system picks team A and predicts a line of -120 but the vegas line is -110. If my system says the line should be -120 then that means that team will win 54.5 percent of the time. And team b wins 45.5 percent of the time. So i take my bet... lets say 110 to win 100 and multiply it by 545 (percentage of the time my bet wins) and you get 54500 then i take what i would lose (110) and multiply it by my losing percentage 455 * 110= 50050

then i subtract the win percentage from lose percentage win lose number and you get 4450 then i divide that by 1000 and you get a +ev of 4.45

[crinkledaces]

Sorry for how poorly it was written i was more focused on getting the info correct then how it was written

[crinkledaces]

7-3 all together if I'm right. Good job

Yea and most of my picks where dogs so it was a real good day.. 7-2-1 not gonna take the time to figure up the units but feel free to track and post it yourselves

[crinkledaces]

Tuesday Starts Here


Game #1 Cinn vs Pitt

Cinn 3.03 runs (9.28 walks and hits)
Pitt 3.18 runs (8.69 walks and hits )

My system says this line should be Pitt -107 but Vegas has Pitt at even money (was +110 but moved while i was doing this )

So the play is Pitt @ +1.92ev ( was 5.01 ev)

[iloseagain]

thanks for the response

[crinkledaces]

Game #2 Stl vs NYM

Stl 3.38 runs (9.94 walks + hits)
NYM 3.24 runs (8.25 walks + hits)

My system says Stl should be favored by -111 But the vegas line is a whopping -170 and for this my system sees value on the Mets @+150 +11.1 Ev

[crinkledaces]

Ok last game im posting tonight Mia vs Atl

Mia 3.94 Runs (11.5 walks + hits)
Atl 3.71 Runs (11.25 walks + hits)

System says the Fish should be favored by -112 vegas has them at a 110 dog so take the Fish @ +6.5 EV

Good night all ill try to post the rest of them tomorrow but i have a busy day.. Good luck

[akay47]

System have anything on TB-Minn under? Love the value, with two stud pitchers and Price gave up 6 ER last start. Immediately following worst 3 outings in 2013, he had a 2.45 ERA, 22 Ks in 22 innings.

[crinkledaces]

System play #3 Minn vs TB

Minn 3.58 runs(10.77 walks + hits)
TB 3.35 runs(9.31 walks + hits)

So yes akay slight value on the under but System sees huge value on Minn

[crinkledaces]

Ok dont have time for all the break downs today but here are today remaining picks


#AcceptedTypeDescriptionRiskTo Win1 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:18 PM Money Line
Baseball #902 Pittsburgh Pirates -105 for Game $126.00 $120.002 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:18 PM Money Line
Baseball #904 New York Mets +155 for Game $120.00 $186.003 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:18 PM Money Line
Baseball #905 Miami Marlins +113 for Game $120.00 $135.604 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:18 PM Money Line
Baseball #917 Kansas City Royals +101 for Game $120.00 $121.205 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:20 PM Money Line
Baseball #921 Minnesota Twins +187 for Game $180.00 $336.606 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:34 PM Money Line
Baseball #919 Baltimore Orioles +135 for Game $180.00 $243.007 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:47 PM Money Line
Baseball #923 New York Yankees +104 for Game $180.00 $187.208 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:47 PM Total
Baseball #923 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox under 7½ -105 for Game $94.50 $90.009 Ticket 4/22/2014 5:59 PM Money Line
Baseball #908 Chicago Cubs -113 for Game $203.40 $180.0010 Ticket 4/22/2014 6:14 PM Total
Baseball #909 San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers under 8 -105 for Game $189.00 $180.00This page has 10 wagers$1,512.90$1,779.60

[keel44]

I hope you take into account current form and not all season's stats.

[crinkledaces]

I hope you take into account current form and not all season's stats.

Of course

[crinkledaces]

Another winning day

[crinkledaces]

Wednesday Starts here

Play #1 Mia vs Atl

Mia runs 3.46 (9.1 Walks + Hits)
Atl runs 3.78 (11.28 Walks +runs)

Pick: MIa @ +5 ev

[crinkledaces]

Play #2 Zona vs Chi

Zona 3.56 runs (10.57 Walks + Hits)
Chi 3.11 runs (11.28 Walks + Hits)

System says line should be Zona -123 but vegas line has the cubs favored.
Pick: Zona @ +13.7ev