2014 mlb

Emancipator · 04-01-14, 12:48 PM

Tuesday April 1^st
Yankees FF +0.5/-105 (1.05 to win 1.00)
Keeping with the tradition of taking favorites on Opening day. The Yankees will go against former Orioles pitcher Scott Feldman. While he enjoyed success against the Yankees last year, it was a totally different team decimated by injuries. This year should hit the ball much better, and features many players that have fared well against Feldman in the past.
Probable Starters are in bold.
Scott Feldman (hou) - throws R vs. nyy - 7:10 PM ET - Minute Maid Park RotoGuru ESPN MLB Yahoo

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alex Rodriguez R	16	5	0	0	2	3	1	5	1	0	.313	.353	.688	1.040
Derek Jeter R	20	6	0	0	2	4	2	2	1	0	.300	.364	.600	.964
Mark Teixeira S	18	6	1	0	1	4	0	4	0	0	.333	.350	.556	.906
Brett Gardner L	10	3	1	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	.300	.500	.400	.900
Brian Roberts S	10	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	.300	.462	.400	.862
Carlos Beltran S	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	.250	.500	.250	.750
Kelly Johnson L	7	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	.286	.286	.429	.714
Jacoby Ellsbury L	10	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.300	.300	.300	.600
Ichiro Suzuki L	39	10	0	0	0	0	5	2	2	1	.256	.341	.256	.597
Brendan Ryan R	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	.125	.125	.250	.375
Alfonso Soriano R	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

On the other side Sabbathia had a down year last year which varied far from his typical averages the past five to ten years. He said last year he was battling nagging problems with his throwing elbow. Sounds like a pretty poor excuse since he never went on the DL I believe, but considering the anomaly of a year he had last year I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. Facing an Astros squad he has little familiarity with. I’d give Sabbathia the edge in this matchup.
I wanted to take the -1.5 RL but there’s not enough bang for my buck and the ML isn’t all that appealing to me (though I almost took it) the FF seemed like a good middle ground to me.

Braves ML +108 (0.93 to win 1.00)
Will take the Lefty vs A Brewers team that hasn’t faced him yet. As Brewers players have combined six at bats against him. Maybe they’ll get to him?On the flip side, despite the two hit complete game shutout Lohse had against this braves team last year seems like anomaly given what this Braves team has done against him in the past. I’ll be betting for reversion to mean, thinking the Braves rebound from their shutout, and Lohse puts in a performance that is more typical of what he has done in past games vs the Braves.

Athletics -1.5 RL +160 (0.32 to win 0.50)
A bit odd that Oakland was shutout in their season opener last year against Felix the Cat last year in their season opener, they would go on to lose their second game to the Mariners 7-1. The difference this year though is they won’t be going against Iwakuma. Instead they will face Kluber, and will put former Indian Kazmir on the mound who has been very solid against this Indians lineup. Despite what he has done in past performances vs the Indians. I am a bit worried about the familiarity the Indians staff has with Kazmir given he was in Cleveland last year, which is I am not putting a full bet on this but I think it at least deserved a half unit.

Emancipator · 04-01-14, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by emancipator

mondaymarch 31^st
marlins -150 (1.00 to win 0.67) win
one ofthe best up and coming pitchers in baseball (arguably the best) in first starton opening day, where favorites tend to cover more often than normal. Fernandez says he wants to finish with an sub2.00 era this year and i’m looking for him to get off to a good start tonight.
while larosa has fared well in the past against an abysmal marlins lineup, last yearshas been gutted with only two players in it from last years. Though i would havepreferred either furcal or johnson in the lineup tonight, it still featuresbatters that have had past success against rosa and a few that haven’t facedhim yet.
even with the batting league worst batting last year. Itdidn’t stop the marlins from winning 14 of the last 18 games fernandez startedin including two wins vs the rockies.
i’d think the marlins would win this game better than 60% ofthe time.

ttl: 1-0 (+0.67)

Emancipator · 04-01-14, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by Emancipator

Tuesday April 1^st
Yankees FF +0.5/-105 (1.05 to win 1.00) LOSE
Keeping with the tradition of taking favorites on Opening day. The Yankees will go against former Orioles pitcher Scott Feldman. While he enjoyed success against the Yankees last year, it was a totally different team decimated by injuries. This year should hit the ball much better, and features many players that have fared well against Feldman in the past.
Probable Starters are in bold.
Scott Feldman (hou) - throws R vs. nyy - 7:10 PM ET - Minute Maid Park RotoGuru ESPN MLB Yahoo

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alex Rodriguez R	16	5	0	0	2	3	1	5	1	0	.313	.353	.688	1.040
Derek Jeter R	20	6	0	0	2	4	2	2	1	0	.300	.364	.600	.964
Mark Teixeira S	18	6	1	0	1	4	0	4	0	0	.333	.350	.556	.906
Brett Gardner L	10	3	1	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	.300	.500	.400	.900
Brian Roberts S	10	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	.300	.462	.400	.862
Carlos Beltran S	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	.250	.500	.250	.750
Kelly Johnson L	7	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	.286	.286	.429	.714
Jacoby Ellsbury L	10	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.300	.300	.300	.600
Ichiro Suzuki L	39	10	0	0	0	0	5	2	2	1	.256	.341	.256	.597
Brendan Ryan R	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	.125	.125	.250	.375
Alfonso Soriano R	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

On the other side Sabbathia had a down year last year which varied far from his typical averages the past five to ten years. He said last year he was battling nagging problems with his throwing elbow. Sounds like a pretty poor excuse since he never went on the DL I believe, but considering the anomaly of a year he had last year I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. Facing an Astros squad he has little familiarity with. I’d give Sabbathia the edge in this matchup.
I wanted to take the -1.5 RL but there’s not enough bang for my buck and the ML isn’t all that appealing to me (though I almost took it) the FF seemed like a good middle ground to me.

Braves ML +108 (0.93 to win 1.00) WIN
Will take the Lefty vs A Brewers team that hasn’t faced him yet. As Brewers players have combined six at bats against him. Maybe they’ll get to him?On the flip side, despite the two hit complete game shutout Lohse had against this braves team last year seems like anomaly given what this Braves team has done against him in the past. I’ll be betting for reversion to mean, thinking the Braves rebound from their shutout, and Lohse puts in a performance that is more typical of what he has done in past games vs the Braves.

Sabbathia is on watch with me the next couple of starts. Even then, Feldman didn't give up the runs like I thought he would.

Day: 1-1 (-0.05)
TTL: 2-1 (+0.62)

As long as Kazmir and Kluber are starting tomorrow, my A's RL bet still stands. If the pitcher for the Indians changes, I may think twice about cancelling this play

Emancipator · 04-02-14, 11:27 AM

Wednesday April 1st
Twins ML +125 (0.80 to win 1.00)
This is a coin flip win at best for the White Sox, who send Paulino to the mound in his first major league start since 2012 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That alone leaves a big question mark on the idea of taking on juice with this White Sox ML. He started to pitch better before his big injury but one has to wonder… what’s the likelihood of him doing what he did in his first seven starts with the Royals, versus what he’s done before with the surgery in mind? Correia on the other hand has started off very well compared to his career averages over the past four years or so, and seems like a better bet than Paulino today.

Marlins RL +185 (0.27 to win 0.50)
Marlins ML -116 (0.58 to win 0.50)
Marlins for the sweep. I think last night was the Rockies game to win in this series. I can’t see Lyles giving them a decent shot versus the Marlins, who send Alvarez to the mound after a decent season last year. Finishing with a shutout versus the Tigers in his final outing ... this Rockies team also has not seen his stuff yet. So I’ll be giving Alvarez the edge in this. Lyles however, seems like on of those guys who will be sent down to the minors by the end of the year.

Mariners ML +123 (0.81 to win 1.00)
Someone can correct me but, Santiago seems overrated in this spot against Paxton. James Paxton in his only four starts last year showed that he will fight in very well in this nasty Mariners rotation featuring Hernandez and Iwakuma. This guy could win the Cy Young award one day, and seems to present excellent value in this spot.

Athletics RL +160 (0.32 to win 0.50)
Rollover from yesterday. Reasons mentioned in other post.

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 09:44 AM

Wednesday, April 3rd

CIN/STL O7.5 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00)
With two runs total scored in the first two games between these two teams, I'd imagine both lineups will be itching to run the bases today. They'll get a nice drop in pitching difficulty here with Lynn and Bailey heading to the mound, two pitchers both clubs have fared pretty well against. The weather isn't the best but with these guys stepping up to the plate, I'm going to look past it.

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 09:55 AM

MIN/CHW U7.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00)

Great weather for a pitching duel, while Phil Hughes is a rather mediocre pitcher, he has done very well against the White Sox in his career. I wanted to take the Twins again today but Quintana is a pretty good lefty and his last two outings were very good against this Twins team. This seemed like the better play.

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 09:57 AM

Twins ML +125 (0.80 to win 1.00)

on second look they weren't that great, and this is a division game after all so, we'll give this a go.

Jayvegas420 · 04-03-14, 10:17 AM

Good write ups.
Today's Thursday!
Tailing all three of these plays.
GL

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Good write ups.
Today's Thursday!
Tailing all three of these plays.
GL

Thanks, I keep getting my days mixed up though, lol. BOL, anything you looking at tonight?

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 01:51 PM

Red Sox -1.5 RRL +160 (0.50 to win 0.80)
Rays RL -1.5 RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68)

Thinking that at least on of these lineups will get to the respected starting pitchers as both Morrow and Chen are pretty mediocre and have performed poorly against their respective opponents lineups (especially Chen). I also find it a bit interesting that though Orioles are favored on the RL, the Red Sox Reverse RL is +25 lower than that of the Orioles ... we'll see if it means anything.

Emancipator · 04-03-14, 09:36 PM

April 2-3rd Results,

Twins ML +125 (0.80 to win 1.00) LOSS
Marlins RL +185 (0.27 to win 0.50) LOSS
Marlins ML -116 (0.58 to win 0.50) LOSS
Marlins plays are a single -1 bet.
Mariners ML +123 (0.81 to win 1.00) WIN
Athletics RL +160 (0.32 to win 0.50) WIN
--------------------------------------
CIN/STL O7.5 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00) WIN
MIN/CHW U7.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00) LOSS
Twins ML +125 (0.80 to win 1.00) WIN
Red Sox -1.5 RRL +160 (0.50 to win 0.80) LOSS
Rays RL -1.5 RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68) WIN

Twins bullpen is a penetrating dick tease. At least it all balanced out though after major bad break yesterday. A little pissed about the over, as I realized my mistake when I realized Quintana's #'s were actually pretty bad vs the Twins ... someone try to talk me out of it next time.

I will certainly be looking to play first fives the next dozen or so games until the sample size on these bullpens increase. Starting to think that's just good betting practice to start the year.

Combined Day Total: 5-4 (+0.98)
Overall: 7-5 (+1.50)
TTL Units Risked: 9.71
ROI: 15.45%

Emancipator · 04-04-14, 10:50 AM

Thursday, April 4th

MIL/BOS U8.5 @ -105 (1.05 to win 1.00)
I feel like this is quite a few runs to give these two guys in this kind of weather. Both these guys would be really good pitchers if they didn't give up so many flyballs and home runs, and is why I feel the line is quite high today. But I'm going to bet that the weather will negate downside as it could become fairly tough to to hit it deep in 40-45 degree weather, with the blowing from right feild at 15 mph. I'm expecting at least one of these guys to pitch a good game letting their bullpens follow up on what they started. As the Brew crew had one of the best in the league last year, and the Sox pen is of to a great start this year.

Dodgers FF RL-0.5 @ -115 (1.00 to win 0.87)
Ryu got off bad start in his professional career to division rival San Francisco. In his first three starts, Ryu allowed 26 hits and six walks in 19 innings (three starts) of work. But after he settled down after the first half of the year and his next two outing we're pretty solid. He is also off to a blistering start this year, and he seems like a good bet to continue that against a team he seems to have figured out. I feel this bet presents even more value knowing he's going up against Vogelsong, as the Dodgers hit him well in their two face-offs versus the right hander.
Will taking the first five, as this Dodgers bullpen has already blown one great outing by Ryu, and the books have priced -1.5 RL knowing such an outcome. I tend to agree with them.

Part of me wants to take Delgado and the Diamondbacks in the FF but I guess I'll lay off it.

Emancipator · 04-04-14, 10:52 AM

The White Sox look a bit enticing as well.

Emancipator · 04-04-14, 03:25 PM

Yankees FF -0.5 @ +105 (0.71 to win .75)
We'll go ahead and take the Yankees in their home opener, with Masahiro Tanaka making his major league debut
Here's a probably bias scouting report:

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
2013: 24-0, 1.27 ERA (Japan)
ESPN New York Projection: 16-7, 3.42 ERA
ZiPS Projection: 12-8, 3.68 ERA

ON THE WAY UP: To begin last year, the Yankees had a 26-year-old starter who once had the potential to be an ace. Phil Hughes never could complement his plus fastball with anything more than a curveball. The changeup he desperately needed to get through lineups a few times never developed with the Yankees.

Why do we bring this up in talking about Tanaka? Tanaka turns 26 in November and by then we will know how his rookie year went. The reason he will fare better in the Bronx than someone like Hughes is because he has control of his seven pitches and his splitter and slider are pluses.

He has very good, but maybe not dominant stuff. Still, he can throw it with such accuracy you should see a lot of six-inning, two-run outings.

Sounds good. On the other side you have Dustin McGowan who making his first start since 2011. He hasn't fared well against some of these Yankees. Not sure why Jeter or Gardner aren't in the lineup tonight (seems a bit dumb considering their history against McGowan), but they still field a pretty solid lineup. One that is due for a decent hitting game, and McGowan just might be the guy to enable that.

Emancipator · 04-04-14, 04:32 PM

Pirates ML-115 (1.00 to win .87)
Getting the Gerrit Cole @ home at this price versus the 4th best pitcher in the Cards rotation seems like a good bet here.
Despite playing in one of the toughest environments for a right handed pitcher in the playoffs last year, Cole pitched a couple of solid games winning and posting a W in one of those. Miller on the other hand has not fared well versus the Pirates and hasn't received any run support either, it won't help him either that his pitches end in quite a few flyballs (above league average last year) and the wind will be blowing 15mph out to left field tonight. Factor one of the leagues better bullpens working behind Cole, and I think it's worth a unit.

2daBank · 04-04-14, 05:08 PM

Cards pen no slouches themselves, in fact I'd argue it better than pit's. also miller isn't cards 4th best pitcher, he better than Lynn so I'd say he 3rd out of the starters.. I agree cards prob won't score much, not sure buccos do either tho, gl

hossa8110 · 04-04-14, 05:44 PM

first 5 innings better bet. cards got much better pen

Jayvegas420 · 04-04-14, 11:45 PM

Fade the jays!
GL

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 12:03 PM

Saturday, April 5th
Twins FF @ +135 (0.35 to win 0.50)
As bad as Gibson is, Carrasco could very well, be worse and he didn't fare well against the Twinkies in his two starts last year. Indians may have edge at home, but it seemed like a coin flip type play, so I'll take the 35 points.

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Cards pen no slouches themselves, in fact I'd argue it better than pit's. also miller isn't cards 4th best pitcher, he better than Lynn so I'd say he 3rd out of the starters.. I agree cards prob won't score much, not sure buccos do either tho, gl

Ahhh, I thought the Cards still had Kelly. I agree with that.

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 12:42 PM

Giants FF +125 (0.40 to win 0.50)
Giants going for four straight have a good chance of doing it versus lefty Maholm. Like Ryu, Maholm has not pitched against this Giants lineup. Bumgarner on the other side has been solid against this Giants ball club and definitely has the edge in this pitching matchup. At least the stats say he does.

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 12:44 PM

I like the CHW/KC Under, but four straight over's by the White Sox scare me some. So I'll be staying away from that, even if regression to mean is pretty high IMO.

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 01:37 PM

Rockies -1 @ +108
Rockies ML -125 (0.63 to win 0.50)
Rockies RL +165 (0.30 to win 0.50)
If Ross isn't in the lineup tonight I'll probably add a little more to this.
La Rosa had a great year in home park last year, with Rockies winning 12 of the 14 at Coors field with him on the mound and will be coming of a poor outing in Miami in his season opener, so I expect a better performance tonight. Diamondbacks have lost three straight and down double digits last night, so I really like situational here. Meanwhile D'backs will send McCarthy to the mound, and aside from Cuddyer he hasn't fared that well against these Rockies hitters. The Rockies lit Delgado (A better pitcher in my opinion) and company last night, and have a good chance at putting runs on the board tonight.

Emancipator · 04-05-14, 10:55 PM

MIL/BOS U8.5 @ -105 (1.05 to win 1.00) WIN
Dodgers FF RL-0.5 @ -115 (1.00 to win 0.87) LOSS
Yankees FF -0.5 @ +105 (0.71 to win .75) WIN
Pirates ML-115 (1.00 to win .87) WIN
----------------------------------
Twins FF @ +135 (0.35 to win 0.50) WIN
Giants FF +125 (0.40 to win 0.50) WIN
Rockies -1 @ +108 WIN
Rockies ML -125 (0.63 to win 0.50)
Rockies RL +165 (0.30 to win 0.50)

Really thought Ryu had figured out neutralize that Giants lineup, I guess he forgot.

Otherwise, we'll see if I can keep my perceptions aligned with reality.

Combined Day Total: 6-1 (+3.62)
Overall: 13-6 (+5.12)
TTL Units Risked: 15.15
ROI: 33.86%

Jayvegas420 · 04-06-14, 01:53 PM

huge

Emancipator · 04-06-14, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

huge

Lol. Yeah pretty fukkin great start. Hope you made something of em.

Emancipator · 04-08-14, 11:59 AM

Tuesday, April 8th

PIT/CHC U7.0 -115 (0.65 to win 0.50)
Cold day with a 5-10 mph wind blowing in from left field for a couple of pitchers who have pitched well versus their respective teams. The past three starts for Edwin Jackson have ended in 7 runs or less, and Morton has pitched 13 shutout innings in the past two starts.

Giants -1 -107
Giants RL +150 (0.33 to win 0.50)
Giants ML -147 (0.74 to win 0.50)
Hudson was fabulous in Arizona about a week ago, pitching almost eight innings shutout innings and allowing only three hits, and will be looking to bring that performance back to San Francisco against a struggling Diamondbacks team, who will send Trevor Cahill to the mound. A righty who has does not pitch well against these Giants hitters. Given this is the Giants Home opener, I expect them to play hard today.

HOU/TOR U8.5 @ -105 (0.78 to win 0.75)
The Blue Jays can hit, but Oberholtzer is pretty damn good in his own right and this is a Blue Jays lineup that hasn't seen his stuff yet., taking the Astros ML in this spot is a decent bet I think, but Buerhle will be coming home almost pitching a complete game shutout down in Tampa and he shut down this Astros team last year. Too bad Toronto has the roof because the weather is great for an under, but even then I still like the bet.

Mariners FF +125 (0.80 to win 1.00)
Paxton still continues to recieve such little respect opening at -110 on the ML. He will again face off against Hector Santiago who he outmatched the first time around. Seems like a good bet for the second time.

farmhouse1 · 04-08-14, 12:23 PM

I like the under in the blue jays game and cubs game. GL

Emancipator · 04-08-14, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by farmhouse1

I like the under in the blue jays game and cubs game. GL

We'll find out. BOL.

Emancipator · 04-09-14, 10:56 AM

Cards RL +155 (0.32 to win 0.50)
Given how well Miller pitches @ home and what the Cards do to Righties in at Busch this seemed worth the risk. Leake hasn't fared too well against this team, and the Reds bullpen is in shambles. Plus the Reds have not been able to do much on offense ... it's becoming very clear how much Choo contributed to this team.

Emancipator · 04-09-14, 11:14 AM

(#2 GM)Padres ML +110 (0.50 to win 0.60)
I don't think I would get much argument when saying that Erlin is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup, as Bauer has been brought up from the minors, only to be sent back down due to poor performance. Erlin however seemed to have found his stride at the end of the year, with Padres winning 4 of the last 5 he started in. Bauer is getting the slight advantage in this game because he's @ home with the Indians lineup backing him up, but I'll wager he can't get the run support today with the Indians going up against the Lefty in the cold.

Brewers ML -120 (1.20 to win 1.00)
Would like to go -1 in this but there doesn't seem to be any reward in it. Garza was solid in his first start of the year against the Braves, and he has done very well against the Phillies in his career. The only potential batter that has done well against him is Dominic Brown and that's a small sample size. Meanwhile Roberto pitched suprisingly well in his first outing, though I think if it was a team other than the Cubs it would have ended differently. Cubbies so far this year are again in the bottom third against batting versus righties. I think the Brew crew should fare better against this mediocre righty. Add the sizeable advantage for the Brewers in the Bullpen and I think you are getting the Brewers at a discount here.

MIL/PHI U7.5 @ -110 (0.60 to win 0.50)
A bit of a hedge, just in case Hernandez somehow outpitches Garza. I do think I'll win this and the moneyline though.

Emancipator · 04-09-14, 02:47 PM

Diamondbacks FF ML +120 (0.42 to win 0.50)
Giants won the last matchup six days ago when these two pitchers squared off. Though Arroyo didn't have a very good game in his last outing, he typically finds a way to put his team in winning position versus the Giants. Lincecum on the other side though. The same can't be said about Lincecum, and since I don't want to deal with this Arizona bullpen, we'll see if Arroyo & company can get ahead early.

Emancipator · 04-10-14, 09:12 AM

April 8th & 9th,
PIT/CHC U7.0 -115 (0.65 to win 0.50) LOSS
Giants -1 -107 WIN
Giants RL +150 (0.33 to win 0.50)
Giants ML -147 (0.74 to win 0.50)
HOU/TOR U8.5 @ -105 (0.78 to win 0.75) WIN
Mariners FF +125 (0.80 to win 1.00) WIN
--------------------------------------------
Cards RL +155 (0.32 to win 0.50) LOSS
(#2 GM)Padres ML +110 (0.50 to win 0.60) WIN
Brewers ML -120 (1.20 to win 1.00) WIN
MIL/PHI U7.5 @ -110 (0.60 to win 0.50) LOSS
Diamondbacks FF ML +120 (0.42 to win 0.50) WIN

Combined Day Total: 6-3 (+3.28)
Overall: 19-9 (+8.40)
Total Units Risked: 21.49
ROI: 39.09%

Emancipator · 04-10-14, 09:42 AM

Thursday, April 10th,
PIT/CHC U7.5 @ -120 (0.70 to win 0.50)
I'm suprised the public isn't all over the under in this game. Wood has been very good against this pirates team and his the home dog as well which is generally a good sign if your thinking about the under. And while these Cubs batters have been able to hit Cole, they haven't done much with those as he is typically a groundball pitcher and doesn't let those mistakes he makes come back to bite him very often. Weather isn't great, just okay. But I think that maybe why the total isn't a half run less in this game. That and all the money on the Over.