Spring Thoughts and Plays

[EXhoosier10]

Not many threads running right now, figured I'd open one up for meaningful, thoughtful discussion.

I'm eyeing a few team win totals; Washington and Yankees in particular.
Nats are looking a little more promising with a couple of injuries to the Braves pitching staff. The rest of the NL East will finish under .500, so they should get a bunch of intradivision wins. Play a bit over .500 for the rest of the year and they'll get to 90 without problem
Yankees lost a lot of talent and got quite lucky last year and still didn't win 87. They're at best +5 with new talent, so they're going to need to get equally lucky as last year to win 87+ in 2013.

I'll be posting Spring Training plays in here as well

[EXhoosier10]

All spring training plays are half of my reg season unit, but i'll keep track in whole #'s for ease of calculation

3/12
Bos -108 ~ 1u

[EXhoosier10]

3/12 Adding:
Mia +146 ~ 1u

Maybe in a regular season game, but nobody should be -160 in a ST game when they're playing 4 regular hitters and a #5 SP

[EXhoosier10]

3/12 Adding:
Tex -117 ~ 1u

[EXhoosier10]

This will end the day's card
3/12 Adding:
Oak -127 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

All spring training plays are half of my reg season unit, but i'll keep track in whole #'s for ease of calculation

3/12
Bos -108 ~ 1u

3/12 Adding:
Mia +146 ~ 1u

Maybe in a regular season game, but nobody should be -160 in a ST game when they're playing 4 regular hitters and a #5 SP

3/12 Adding:
Tex -117 ~ 1u

This will end the day's card
3/12 Adding:
Oak -127 ~ 0.5u

3/12:
3-0-1 ~ +2.96u

[No coincidences]

[EXhoosier10]

3/13:
Det -126 ~ 1u
Atl -121 ~ 1u
Phi +121 ~ 0.5u

[SilverTongueFox]

Great start. Do you know how Cozart has looked this spring? He pitched well last year. Would have thought Wacha more than -125 with a decent Cards lineup today. Take a shot on the Stros?

BOL

[EXhoosier10]

Great start. Do you know how Cozart has looked this spring? He pitched well last year. Would have thought Wacha more than -125 with a decent Cards lineup today. Take a shot on the Stros?

BOL

Cosart has only thrown in two games this spring and hasn't look anything special, IMO. I'm honestly not that high on him. I'd have alreaday pulled the trigger on the Cardinals if they were using MLB relievers today, but after Wacha exits, the game should get interesting. I don't see anything that points to Houston at +111 today

[No coincidences]

Nationals are going to run away and hide in the NL East.

89.5 is a gift if you like to bet futures.

[EXhoosier10]

3/13:
Det -126 ~ 1u
Atl -121 ~ 1u
Phi +121 ~ 0.5u

I'm apparently off on my days. These are for today, 3/14.

3/14 Adding:
Stl -121 ~ 1u

[EXhoosier10]

Nationals are going to run away and hide in the NL East.

89.5 is a gift if you like to bet futures.

Who is betting the under 89.5 and what is their logic? Desmond falls off the map? Harper or Stras suck/miss half a season? Even if Zimmerman gets hurt, they have Rendon / Espinosa who could fill in and be serviceable in his absence. OF depth is fine with Hairston and McClouth as backups. Their rotation has no question marks 1-4. bullpen is solid. Youth isn't all that great, but barring multiple injuries, that shouldn't be tested. I already have 2u on the over, tempted to put more

[EXhoosier10]

Here's a list of player props I have my eye on. I'll give my picks for each once I lock them in

Jacoby Ellsbury ~~ 153.5 Hits
Anthony Rizzo ~~ 23.5 HR
Prince Fielder ~~ 31.5 HR
Jose Fernandez ~~ 12.5 Wins
CC Sabathia ~~ 14 Wins
Matt Moore ~~ 13.5 Wins

[No coincidences]

Who is betting the under 89.5 and what is their logic? Desmond falls off the map? Harper or Stras suck/miss half a season? Even if Zimmerman gets hurt, they have Rendon / Espinosa who could fill in and be serviceable in his absence. OF depth is fine with Hairston and McClouth as backups. Their rotation has no question marks 1-4. bullpen is solid. Youth isn't all that great, but barring multiple injuries, that shouldn't be tested. I already have 2u on the over, tempted to put more

Admittedly I haven't delved deeper, but the surface research I've done so far has them around 93-95.

Closer issues maybe? A lot, as you pointed out, is because of the weak competition they will face, but it can be argued this is the team to beat in the NL this year.

[EXhoosier10]

Admittedly I haven't delved deeper, but the surface research I've done so far has them around 93-95.

Closer issues maybe? A lot, as you pointed out, is because of the weak competition they will face, but it can be argued this is the team to beat in the NL this year.

Soriano might be declining, but he's no Heath Bell. Stammen, Storen, and Clippard are solid RP's, and should prevent any huge bullpen issues should Soriano struggle.

I'll probably play another unit should the price drop/line move to 90.

[jgabby]

I have Nationals at 92 wins. Solid lineup and 4 really good starters. That rotation could be huge in the playoffs assuming all remain healthy.

[No coincidences]

Soriano might be declining, but he's no Heath Bell. Stammen, Storen, and Clippard are solid RP's, and should prevent any huge bullpen issues should Soriano struggle.

I'll probably play another unit should the price drop/line move to 90.

Soriano's got the stuff, but he's incredibly erratic.

[EXhoosier10]

I have Nationals at 92 wins. Solid lineup and 4 really good starters. That rotation could be huge in the playoffs assuming all remain healthy.

I like to hold off until midseason for playoff wagers. too much variance to predict a full season. With a half season, you can focus on unlucky teams that will likely make a run late yet have long odds

[EXhoosier10]

Soriano's got the stuff, but he's incredibly erratic.

no reason to overthink this. Soriano, Zimmerman, Desmond, and minor league pitching depth are really all that could stop this team from winning 90. THat's very few holes that a trade or two can't fix midseason.

[EXhoosier10]

3/14 Adding:
KC -114 ~ 1u
SD -102 ~ 1u
Ari +106 ~ 1u

[jgabby]

I like to hold off until midseason for playoff wagers. too much variance to predict a full season. With a half season, you can focus on unlucky teams that will likely make a run late yet have long odds

Ya for sure. I'm not a fan of playoff futures in any sport. Just making a comment on their starters now that they added Fister for this season.

[EXhoosier10]

Bovada is hanging a terrible number for the NL east winner. Beachy is now likely to need TJ surgery and Bovada has Nats +100 to win the division. I bit... I also jumped on a couple player props

MLB FUTURES:
Yankees - Under 86.5 Wins @ -115 ~ 1u
Nationals - Over 89.5 Wins @ -110 ~ 2u
Nationals - Win NL East @ +100 ~ 2u
Prince Fielder - Under 31.5 HR @ +105 ~ 1.5u
Anthony Rizzo - Over 23.5 HR @ -115 ~ 1u
Jacoby Ellsbury - Over 153.5 Hits @ +105 ~ 1u

[No coincidences]

Should've been 3-0 with the early games.

Not sure what Philly was doing in the 8th inning.

[No coincidences]

Bovada is hanging a terrible number for the NL east winner. Beachy is now likely to need TJ surgery and Bovada has Nats +100 to win the division. I bit... I also jumped on a couple player props

MLB FUTURES:
Yankees - Under 86.5 Wins @ -115 ~ 1u
Nationals - Over 89.5 Wins @ -110 ~ 2u
Nationals - Win NL East @ +100 ~ 2u
Prince Fielder - Under 31.5 HR @ +105 ~ 1.5u
Anthony Rizzo - Over 23.5 HR @ -115 ~ 1u
Jacoby Ellsbury - Over 153.5 Hits @ +105 ~ 1u

What's Medlen's status?

I love that Nats' NL East play.

[jgabby]

What's Medlen's status?

I love that Nats' NL East play.

It looks like Medlen will need elbow surgery. Getting evaluated next week. Beachy is also being evaluated next week and might also need elbow surgery.

[No coincidences]

3/14 Adding:
KC -114 ~ 1u
SD -102 ~ 1u
Ari +106 ~ 1u

Picked some wild games to bet today, Ex. LOL....

[EXhoosier10]

Picked some wild games to bet today, Ex. LOL....

No kidding... such a roller coaster just to break even

[EXhoosier10]

3/13:
Det -126 ~ 1u
Atl -121 ~ 1u
Phi +121 ~ 0.5u

I'm apparently off on my days. These are for today, 3/14.

3/14 Adding:
Stl -121 ~ 1u

3/14 Adding:
KC -114 ~ 1u
SD -102 ~ 1u
Ari +106 ~ 1u

no play on the late games... wraps up for the day
3/14:
4-2-1 ~ +2.5

YTD:
7-2-2 ~ +5.46u

[EXhoosier10]

3/15
Houston +150 ~ 0.5u
Detroit only has scherzer, the rest are MiLB guys. Good opportunity here

[mlb]

Here's a list of player props I have my eye on. I'll give my picks for each once I lock them in

Jacoby Ellsbury ~~ 153.5 Hits
Anthony Rizzo ~~ 23.5 HR
Prince Fielder ~~ 31.5 HR
Jose Fernandez ~~ 12.5 Wins
CC Sabathia ~~ 14 Wins
Matt Moore ~~ 13.5 Wins

interesting....

[italianbandit]

Good luck EX, sup Coin. I just started reading Baseball Between the Numbers. Good read.

[mlb]

Bovada is hanging a terrible number for the NL east winner. Beachy is now likely to need TJ surgery and Bovada has Nats +100 to win the division. I bit... I also jumped on a couple player props

MLB FUTURES:
Yankees - Under 86.5 Wins @ -115 ~ 1u
Nationals - Over 89.5 Wins @ -110 ~ 2u
Nationals - Win NL East @ +100 ~ 2u
Prince Fielder - Under 31.5 HR @ +105 ~ 1.5u
Anthony Rizzo - Over 23.5 HR @ -115 ~ 1u
Jacoby Ellsbury - Over 153.5 Hits @ +105 ~ 1u

Somehow I didnt see you actually booked these - I think these are outstanding.

i'm high on the Nats again this year.

[EXhoosier10]

Somehow I didnt see you actually booked these - I think these are outstanding.

i'm high on the Nats again this year.

Feel like these are gifts. I dont' see any reason Rizzo shouldn't progress this season. Ellsbury is basically a 50/50 bet that he doesn't get hurt. and re: prince, the wind tunnel in Texas isn't really there any more since they opened up the concourse behind home plate last season. It should be close, but plus odds make it worthwhile.

Not sure what to do about pitcher props, still

[EXhoosier10]

Only 1 early play today

3/16:
Toronto -1 RL +112 ~ 1u