Rockies/Giants over 8

[bmac]

Here is the deal:
Yes the Giants are pitching Rookie Matt Caine. He has been playing well for them. He has been 4-0 in his past few starts with a really low ERA.
However, the Rockies are bad enough to give up a lot of runs. They are pitching Aaron Cook who had an ok beginning of the year but since the break has struggled going 3-6. He also struggles against the Giants going 0-2 with and ERA of 6.11.

The giants have something to play for and the rockies are just trying to make it through to the end of the season.

Rockies/Giants: Over 8
starts at 3:35 ET.

your thoughts?

[Ganchrow]

We will be waiting to check the wind and see who is in the lineup, but yes our initial lean would be to the over. Day games at SF have gone over at 70% (21-9) this year, so even though Cain has been great, getting a low total with both bullpens shaky seems good at first glance.

Because of the relatively high volatility involved with both starters and bullpens, we might take over 8.5 at about +120 or over 9 at about +155. This is because we think there is a good chance the game will go under, but if it goes over, it is likely to do so by more than 1 run.

[sergfro]

We will be waiting to check the wind and see who is in the lineup, but yes our initial lean would be to the over. Day games at SF have gone over at 70% (21-9) this year, so even though Cain has been great, getting a low total with both bullpens shaky seems good at first glance.

Because of the relatively high volatility involved with both starters and bullpens, we might take over 8.5 at about +120 or over 9 at about +155. This is because we think there is a good chance the game will go under, but if it goes over, it is likely to do so by more than 1 run.

ganchrow what happened to posting your analyisis everyday? I enjoyed reading your point of view